THE COMING YEAR

Otago Daily Times, Issue 26041, 3 January 1946, Page 9

THE COMING YEAR

PLANS AND PROSPECTS PROCESS OF RECONSTRUCTION By Dr George Gretton (Special) LONDON, Dec. 29. Nineteen hundred and forty-five has been one of the decisive years. Since the spring, events have moved with astonishing speed. The collapse of Germany was already inevitable when it came' in May. but few people had foreseen that Japan’s defeat would follow so swiftly. As it is true in a sense that war creates more problems than it solves, developments since the final collapse of the Axis have been as complex and absorbing as during the second world war. Fo!- British people in particular the military victory is far more a beginning than an end. For them 1945 opened gloomily—the Ardennes offensive. which delayed the German surrender. had not yet been checked, and blind destruction by flying bombs had given way to the swift, unpredictable menace of rockets. The year ends on a note of tension of a cjuite different kind. Perhaps the worst sacrifices are over, but Britain is grappling with tasks as arduous as any which it tackled during the war. The huge and complex operation of rebuilding the nation's social and economic life is in full swing, and my impression is that after an inevitable temporary slackening of purpose in the first reaction to peace the national spirit is as taut and purposeful as it was in the great days of the London blitz, wlym Britain stood alone and undismayed. Government's Huce Task To the detached observer it is a fascinating study. In July, at the first post-war general election, the British eeoplc asserted itself uneauivocably. It chose the Government it wanted and gave that Government a clear mandate to take over the biggest reconstruction job in history. Whether it chose rightly or wrongly will emerge during the next couple of years, but there is no doubt that the Government has the will of the British people behind it. Even the Opposition has been restrained and responsible in ns function, and has not tried to make party capital out of major national issues in which the difficulties of the Government are the difficulties of the British people, resulting from the most unstinting national war effort ever made. Although four and a-half montns is little time in which to reorganise the occupation of 20 million people, to rebuild the houses in which they five, and re-equip the factories in which they work, it is worth while reviewing the progress to date for the sake of the light it throws upon the prospects for 1946. First and foremost comes man-power. This is finally the nation’s most precious asset. To employ it productively is not merely an economic but a social necessity. Last summer the Governmnet faced the colossal task of unwinding the huge spring of the war machine while maintaining and expanding the nation’s basic productive economy. At the peak of the war effort 22 million men and women were mobiiised in the services or in industrial employment. Nearly half of these were in the forces or in occupations directly concerned with war production The problem is not simply to transfer these millions to civilian employment but to do it without creating large-scale unemployment and consequent disruption of social and economic life. Restoring Post-war Economy Detailed figures recently published show that from June to the end ot October, the number of workers actually engaged in home civilian production or production for export had increased by over one million- ihe estimate for the end of December is that the increase will have reached 2.3 millions. This is a net increase and does not represent .the full scope of the transfer, since nearly a million and a-half will have given up employment These include married women and old men engaged in war work who would not normally expect to continue in employment. All the members of the forces also receive accumulated leave amounting to as much as 90 days, and many ot them are taking a long and well-earned rest before returning to civil life. Altogether about three and three-quarter million people are concerned in the transfer. In addition there have been a great many switches from one lorm of civilian employment to another. This is a big operation, but perhaps the most important aspect is that the unemployment figure for November was onlv 266,000, of which over bO.OOO had been unemployed for not more than two weeks, and a further u3,00U were married women who may be assumed to be giving up their war-time employment and returning to then families.

Moreover, it may be assumed that a number of civilians are also glad aftei the intensive strain of the war years to take a spell of rest before resuming their peace-time occupation. The liguie of actual unemployment therefore probably represents between one in forty and one in fifty of the people concerned. It would be difficult to argue that the social and economic disruption and waste attendant upon large-scale tinemployment could be justified by any conceivable benefits arising from a faster transfer. It is clear that the Government is working on the principle that it is more important to lay a sound foundation for the nations post-war economy than to restore civilian production quickly at any cost. Rehousing the People A second vital task is the rehousing of millions of people. With four million and a-half houses destroyed or damaged by enemy action and the almost complete cessation of civilian building for six years— representing a deficit of about two million houses 01 dwellings—the problem is still virtually a first-aid one. In the London region the crisis is most acute. Normally this area houses about one-fifth of the total population of the country, and during the war nearly as many houses were damaged in London as in the whole of the rest of the countiy Moreover, much of the damage occurred during the last eighteen months of the war, especially in the Hying bomb and rocket period. There are still about 280,000 houses in the London area to be repaired or restored, and until they are made available to men returning from the forces and workers returning from the provinces the actual new building piogramme is bound to be delayed. Nevertheless emphasis is steadily shifting to new building, and next summer will see results in a large number of new permanent houses side by side witn “ temporary ’ structures alieady appearing. These two aspects of reconstruction are fundamental; until workers arc reoccupied and housed general industrial plans cannot, mature. But these plans have been laid in a veiy wide range of industries, and I snail expect to see something in the natuie of a sudden forward leap during the New Year. Meanwhile, the atmosphere is not unlike that during the tense months of preparation of D-Day two years ago. It was a strained and harassing time but when the hour struck the gi eat operation owed much of its sensational success to the long, arduous, and unspectacular period of planning and preparation which had gone befoie.