THE POPULATION PROBLEM

Otago Daily Times, Issue 24297, 14 May 1940, Page 6

THE POPULATION PROBLEM

The fact of a declining birth-rate in New Zealand is accepted with what amounts to complacency by the people of this Dominion. . The disposition seems to be to dwell,more on the low infant mortality rate, the high standard of living, the extraordinary development of the country in a brief hundred years of modern history. These, admittedly, are matters on which New Zealanders may congratulate themselves. But they should not be allowed to obscure the alarming revelation of population statistics that if our first century has been one of progress, the second threatens to become one of decline. Not population alone, but the entire economy of the country, is related to the trend which is now becoming yearly more apparent. Two new publications which contain analyses of the birth-rate and relevant vital statistics have just been issued, one the fourth volume based on the population census of 1936, and compiled by the Census and Statistics Department, the other prepared by the Birth-rate Committee of the

" Five Million Club." Both have the same gloomy story to tell. The decline in births can be indicated in various ways. In 1878, for example, the number of births in New Zealand to 50;999 married women in the reproductive age groups was 17,341; in 1936, the women in this class had increased to 173,057, and the number of births was 23,711. The rate of natural increase of the population in 1888 was 21.79, and in 1938 had declined to about 8.22. The statistics, in establishing a rapidly falling birth-rate, are disturbing enough. But their significance for the immediate future makes them doubly so. Age-distribution must inevitably have its effect upon the fortunes of the State, and the position has arisen in New Zealand at which an increasing proportion of the population is entering the higher age brackets. In the early eighties nearly 40 per cent, of the male population consisted of boys up to 14 years —of young citizens, that is to say, with their effective working life before them. In 1938, only 25 per cent, of the males were in this age group. In 1936 the number of persons under 40 years of age was 155,000 less than would have been required to balance population on the basis of age composition only a quarter of a century earlier. Such a trend, spread over all population groups, has produced the extraordinary result that since the early days Of New Zealand settlement, the proportion of young people has declined —by ■ nearly 50, per cent, in the case of males—while that of elderly people has doubled. Otago, it is interesting to note ; in passing, has the highest ratio of elderly people in the Dominion, and the record for longevity is held by Dunedin —116 years! The meaning of these figures, briefly put, is that the proportion of the population upon which the productive capacity of the country must depend is diminishing. As the years pass, greater numbers of persons will complete the span of their useful years—and apply for social security —while a declining number of young people will be available to take their places. Nor could a sudden, miraculous increase in the birth-rate correct this position, except gradually. Since the internal prosperity of the Dominion is dependent upon continued and expanding productivity, the outlook for the future is not hopeful. For the immediate need,, youth immigration offers the only remedy, although one which itself presents difficulties. Taking the long-range view of the situation, it becomes obvious that the stimulation of the birth-rate has become a national necessity in New Zealand.