THE OTAGO DAILY TIMES WEDNESDAY, August 23, 1939. THE EUROPEAN CRISIS

Otago Daily Times, Issue 23894, 23 August 1939, Page 8

THE OTAGO DAILY TIMES WEDNESDAY, August 23, 1939. THE EUROPEAN CRISIS

The cumulative uncertainties and tension of the European situation cannot without some 'denouement reach a much higher pitch than that at which they stand at the moment. The "war of nerves," this achievement of Nazi technique, seems to have about reached its climax. The actual situation must appear correspondingly critical. The question upon which hangs the issue of peace or war is that of the course Herr Hitler has in mind to pursue. The large-scale military manoeuvres in Germany increase the sense of threat in the general atmosphere. The Nazi leader in Danzig is reported to have declared that "the hour now approaches" when the Fuhrer will solve the problem of Danzig and the Corridor in a manner similar to that adopted in the case of the Sudetenland. But that performance, that victory of armed aggression without resistance or conflict, Herr Hitler cannot repeat. At an earlier stage the German calculation may have been that the Poles would not immediately resist a coup in Danzig, that the Peace Front could not become effective as a military machine until the German troops were across the Corridor and in Upper Silesia, and that the Western Powers would then prefer to negotiate rather than to batter away at Germany's western defences. But it is difficult to believe that Herr Hitler can be counting to-day upon anything of thekind. The great Nazi threat, the attempt at intimidation, has been exploited to the full from Berlin and Danzig, and the effect cannot have been reassuring to Herr Hitler and Germany's military leaders. There has been no symptom of weakening on the part of Poland and the Peace Front Powers, no desperate last-minute attempts to persuade Herr Hitler to hold his hand, no evidence upon which the Fuhrer could rely that Danzig itself, in the event of a rash step on his part, would not furnish the spark leading to a conflagration. Why, if he intends to strike, Herr Hitler has not done so ere this affords room for speculation. The season favourable to military operations in Europe is already advanced. Herr Hitler has gone so far in his declarations that Danzig must become part of the Reich that he cannot well beat a retreat without some loss of prestige. Yet behind his arrogant assumption of supreme confidence there may be lurking doubts. Delays in putting his much-talked-of "plan" into execution may reflect a hesitation on his part arising out of misgivings as to the measure of success which a definitely aggressive move on Germany's part could achieve. The possibility is not ruled out that Italy may be a restraining influence upon Germany at this juncture. While Signor Mussolini maintains silence in these critical days, there is no particular reason to suppose that he would support with enthusiasm a move on Germany's part against Poland in view of the inevitable consequences. What private counsel he may have offered Herr Hitler on that subject may well be a matter of pertinent conjecture. Whether the GermanItalian military alliance is a perfectly automatic instrument of mutual assistance, signifying Italy's willingness in any circumstances to lend Germany aid in a war against Poland, has not been made absolutely clear. Reports from Rome suggest an atmosphere of excitement in the Italian capital, and the possibility of the calling by Count Ciano of a conference of Ambassadors with a view to an effort for the adjustment of the issues in this crisis. A- development which will be watched with interest is a conference of representatives of the Oslo Powers which is about to meet at Brussels, at the invitation of King Leopold of Belgium, with the object of framing an appeal to the Great Powers to do their utmost to avoid war. But again the most that can apparently be said is that the upshot must depend upon the extent to which Herr Hitler is amenable to the promptings of caution and reason. Another development is reported the implications of which cannot be ignored. News of the pending conclusion of a non-aggres-sion pact between Russia and Germany must add to the menace of Poland's position and will certainly not make easier the task of relieving the tension that overhangs Europe. While it is necessary to as-

sume that the possibility of such a development had been foreseen in London and Paris, it is nevertheless impossible to conceive of any consequential weakening of the AngloFrench determination to defend the integrity of Poland against German aggression, should the need for such extreme action arise.