THE RECENT CRISIS

Otago Daily Times, Issue 23669, 29 November 1938, Page 4

THE RECENT CRISIS

DOWNING STREET DIPLOMACY REACTIONS IN BUSINESS The following letter received in Dunedin from a retired business! man in Yorkshire has been placed! at our disposal:— Following my previous letter of things general on this side of the world the thought comes to me that perhaps you would be interested to read something as to our reactions to the recent political crisis. The whole thing came on us rather suddenly when we were ordered to call at the central schools to go and get fitted for, and receive, our gas-masks, and when on our way down to receive them, we saw trenches being dug in the centre of the town, in order that law abiding citizens may have some sort of protection in case of an air raid, Possibly one in every hundred of the population could, have been got into the trenches with the help of an expert packer. What was to become of the rest of us has not yet been disclosed. We had had lectures on air raid precautions given by sundry people, who seemed to know very little about it, or if they did, showed a marked inability to' pass on their knowledge to the proletariat. So even the lecturers ceased to lecture and the whole thing fell to pieces for the lack of organisation. As usual, we should be expected to blunder through. Which reminds me of a saying of Admiral Jacky Fisher.. Admiral Fisher, wag a, supporter of the -''-British-Israel' idea,* and the reason for this he ■gave, thus: "■When ■we consider the damned Idiots we get to govern us, how could we always manage to blunder through, somehow, if we were not the Chosen People?" All this, of course, is a , strong argument in favour of a dictatorship, if we can get the right sort of dictator, one whom we can sack when he fails to do his job properly. But this gas-mask distribution seemed to make us sit up and takis notice, talk about it,and read the papers, though these have lost much of their standing as guides, philosphers and friends, since the war, and more particularly since the abdication. We are conscious of a certain amount of control, limited maybe, but there all the same. We, of course, knew little of the rights and wrongs of the dispute, nor did the House of as far as One can read. The Cabinet itself, if it knew anything, kept quiet, and left it in the hands of the inner Cabinet, until Chamberlain decided on a personal interview with Mr Hitler..' ■' ■ ■■■ ■■ ■. ' ■ <-'\i >■ Of course, .we were unanimous that we wanted no war, and we were not disposed to send our lads to be killed and maimed without a real cause. So we had to be content to wait until Chamberlain and Hitler played their game of international poker. And when the news came that there was to be no war, we heartily thanked Almighty Grod that peace had been preserved. t But when we got to know that Hitler had the better hand, and that Czechoslovakia had to pay, we began to feel uncomfortable about it. Very much so. It was so very unBritish. We felt that we had climbed down somehow before the threats of war. ' „. The political opponents of Chamberlain (I am not a politician) began to say Chamberlain ought to have "called Hitler's bluff" whatever that may mean, and they are keeping up the shout. So you will understand that we are by no means comfortable about it. I think ernment itself feels, the same, hence its hurry to lend (eventually give) the Check Government £10,000,000 and open a Lord Mayor's Fund for the help of the dispossessed Czechs. But as the real facts of the case leak out, we are beginning to see that there was no real super statesmanship about it, simply a choosing of the lesser of two evils. We are not tied by treaty to Czecho; all the same, we had given them to understand through Chamberlain <arid Simon's speeches, that they could rely on our help if they were invaded. We sent Runciman out, to see what he could make of it, and he reported that the cession of the Sudeten lands was the solution. So Chamberlain had to. put, the> matter, to Daladier, who-got the job of breaking the news to'■■.Czecho. . ...... You know all the rest. . The net result of the crisis is that Germany is now very definitely the dominant military Power in Europe. We have lost face not only in our sight, but in the sight of the whole world. France has lost more. She has lost her allies, Czecho and Russia, and it is very probable that the rest of her Balkan allies will have lost a certain amount of confidence. Further,, Italy backed by Hitler is likely to assume a top-dog attitude in her relations with France.

After having sufficient time comfortably to digest his latest meal, we shall expect that the restoration of the colonies.will be Hitler's next demand. He has promised to do everything by diplomacy and not to go to war with Britain on any account. Will he keep his word? We don't know, we are hopeful, but doubtful in view of his past performances. The destiny of Europe is in the hands of Hitler and Mussolini. Stalin has faded out of the picture. He is too busy with his purges. What does the future hold for us? I think it is very well expressed by Gerald Heard in his book " These Hurrying Years." A pure scientist, reviewing the past 30 years, finishes his book thus (it was written a few years ago, about 1933): " Our present knowledge gives us clearly to see that we shall shortly, emerge into a new world where value and reality will be seen to be reconciled. Or, we shall die leaving an empty world to those chosen by Life to re-attempt this crisis of creation. The trend is so apparent that all can see it, and forces beyond our ken are sweeping us to the brink.'" ... Business cannot survive in an atmosphere of this kind, and until there is more confidence in the future, we shall have to be content to jog along and t" th best we can. The market is as nervous as a cat. A fairly solid bottom, with spasms of slight indications of a rise, then fall back to normal again. Put until the wars in Spain and China stop, and we are sure that Hitler and Mussolini are going to settle down, there cannot be much improvement. On account of the increasing rearmament, we shall just plod along, but there will be no boom. Finally, we got the news of your election same day. Mr Savage goes back with the same majority. So I expect he will go ahead with his extreme social legislation. Well, apart from external affairs the running of a Government is pretty much the same as the running of a business. If Savage.makes enough profit, he will foe able to carry out his 40-hour week and his pensions scheme, which by the way, ought

to attract plenty of emigrants to New Zealand. However, it seems to me that it is going to be difficult for your secondary industries, as you have no market apart from your own, and the importing of goods from lower wage countries is automatically made easier, and a natural sequence of higher wages. It is rather soon to draw a correct balance sheet, but the next three years will give a better idea. There are other matters which would make this letter too long, such as the effect of China crumbling to Japan. How is this going to affect Australia and New Zealand? It seems to me that Mr Savage will have to provide a good few millions for your rearmament. I am afraid the world is in for an exciting time during the next 10 years, but I am lookinf for a break in the Rome-Berlin axis. Partly on the ground that there is not enough room for two cockerels on one midden, and partly on account of a sure clashing of the interests of Hitler and Mussolini in the Balkans. Mussolini has got hold of the Tyrol, and Hitler's plan in his "Mein Kampf " is to get all Germans into one Reich. But we must wait

patiently and get ready for the next game of international poker where we hope to have a better hand with which to play our game.

There is only one aspect of the situation which more than concerns me. Germany's one ambition and aim is training for war, and the efforts of the whole nation are directed towards that one object. Here in England we are self-satis-fied and smug, reckoning we will blunder through somehow. A fit and trained man L worth many unfit and untrained men when the showdown comes, and it will very soon, so if the Empire is to survive it should be doing much more than is being done to-day. Both in training men and organising the nation, otherwise we may be paying a very heavy price for peace to-day.