THE OTAGO DAILY TIMES FRIDAY, September 2, 1938. EVADING THE ISSUE

Otago Daily Times, Issue 23594, 2 September 1938, Page 8

THE OTAGO DAILY TIMES FRIDAY, September 2, 1938. EVADING THE ISSUE

The Minister of Finance, closing the second-reading debate on the Social Security Bill, had nothing new to contribute on the vital question of the country’s ability to pay for the extension of pensions and the provision of health benefits that are contemplated in that measure. Yet finance is the issue upon which the Government’s proposals must stand or fall. In a manner that is a characteristic of debate from the Government benches, Mr Nash replied to criticism without in the least disposing of it. He gave no ground and made none, being content to rest his case once more on an appeal to sentiment rather than to reason. In a word, he talked a great deal to the gallery, in such terms as, for instance: “ The job of a Government is to ensure that there is no need for anyone to worry about material things. . . . We are saying to all who are in need, ‘There is no cause for you to worry about food, shelter and clothing. They are being provided for you.’ ” Those are doubtless very moving sentiments. But if they are intended to suggest to the mass of the people, as would seem to be the case, that their attitude should be one of “Eat, drink and be merry, for to-morrow and on every succeeding to-morrow the Government will provide,” all that can be said of them is that they have no relation to hard facts. The Minister continues to pin his faith in a luture of ever-expanding prosperity. “It is inevitable,” he says, “from the knowledge we have of the amazing resources of this country, that there will be a further increase in production. We cannot attempt to measure that increase with accuracy. We can only anticipate the future by measuring the past.” It is at least something that the Minister should now concede the difficulty of measuring future prospects with accuracy. Nevertheless he is still unwilling to permit the doubts which he obviously harbours to temper his judgment of an issue that should be decided on some consideration more tangible than that of pure conjecture. Social security, as the Government plans it. cannot be paid for unless the yield from production continues to expand in the same ratio as in the past. But it is not enough that the Government should say. merely

that the rewards of production may increase. It looks at the past and professes to read the future with some measure of certainty. When an attempt was made, during the proceedings of the Social Security Committee, to induce the expert witness, Mr Maddex, to abandon reason in favour of speculation, he naturally refused to follow his questioners on to such insecure ground. Mr Maddex was invited by the Prime Minister to consider the suggestion that the soundness of the financial structure of social security was guaranteed by “the present 'rate of increase in the production of goods.” His retort was that the position seemed to him to depend “ not only on production but on the price of products and the ability to market them.” Mr Maddex’s argument is as indestructible to-day as it was five months ago. Not only is the Government prepared to gamble on a future in which the production of the Dominion will be doubled or trebled —and that despite the threat of an almost stationary and certainly ageing population—but it also is willing to risk all the uncertainties of market behaviour. If prices crash, if production does not expand at the rate counted on by the Government. then social security will be proved a disastrous fiction. And it is precisely that “if,” heavy with meaning, that Mr Nash is more than ready to dismiss as a factor in his calculations. The foundations of social security, as they rest at present, must shake at the first shock of unfavourable economic change. That is a possibility of which the country must take account, even if the Government itself is unwilling to do so.

The Bill has now passed into the committee stages. In that connection it seems pertinent to express the hope that there will be no undue interference with the privileges of members. The Government will be doing less than its duty if it does not afford every reasonable facility for the discussion of this Bill in. all its aspects. Already the Chairman of Committees, warning members against the introduction of “ irrelevancies ” in the committee stages, seems to have taken the extraordinary step of preventing an Opposition speaker from quoting from the report of the British actuary, on the ground, apparently, that Mr Maddex’s conclusions are not relevant to the Bill. Actually they are entirely relevant, dealing as they do with the crucial question of finance. The inference is that the Government has no wish to be embarrassed, further by the conclusions of its own expert witness. His estimates were ignored when the Bill was framed and when he himself proved unaccommodating under examination. From present indications the committee discussion will not add greatly to a satisfactory solution of the financial difficulties of “social security.”