A THIRD TERM?

Otago Daily Times, Issue 23334, 28 October 1937, Page 15

A THIRD TERM?

ROOSEVELT'S PLANS " INFLUENCE OF EVENTS Behind all the passing political issues there is one question about which many people are thinking seriously. It is whether or not President Roosevelt intends to run for a third term, writes the Washington correspondent of the Christian Science Monitor. We try sometimes to gauge public interest by the questions we are asked by our various non-political acquaint- • ances and correspondents, and for some time now the chief question they ask is: " Is the President going to try for a third term?" A few months ago the question was: " What's going to happen in the Supreme Court fight? " The best answer we have been able to give is" that nobody knows to-day whether Mr Roosevelt will challenge this powerful American .tradition, and probably Mr Roosevelt himself knows least of all. The question is still wide open. People who know the President's mood of late, fcowever, feel the possibility of his running is getting greater rather than less. ,' Yet, the latest times that the President has approached the question—the. only times, as far as we know, that he has discussed it for quotation—he has intimated strongly, without committing himself irrevocably, that he did not intend to run in 1940. Mrs Roosevelt, his wife, and Mrs James Roosevelt, sen.,, his mother—whose recent remarks in Paris may or may not have been accurately quoted when she was represented as denying that her son would run again—have also plainly intimated that they considered Mr Roosevelt's period in the White House would end in 1940. HIS STRONGEST HINTS At. the Democratic Party's victory dinner last January the President said: "My great ambition on January 20, 1941', is to turn over this desk and chair to my successor, whoever he may be, with the assurance that I am at the same time turning over to him as President a nation intact,—etc." In his unofficial interview with Arthur Krock in April, the President's main theme of discussion turned on the assumption that he has only until 1941 in which to set his refqrms under way. But these statements are not enough to set at rest speculation about a third term. And quite likely nothing that Mr Roosevelt could say would end such speculations until his successor is actually nominated. Several other American Presidents have openly disclaimed and even denounced third-term ambitions, and then later sought to obtain the nomination. Grant's third term aspirations were well known and an important political factor during his latter months in office, and in the Republican Convention of 1884 he fought hard for the nomination and almost got it. On the thirty-sixth and last ballot, 306 votes were cast for Grant and 399 for Garfield, who was thus nominated. ;„„. . , Theodore Roosevelt in 1904 interpreted his first three years and a-half in office as the equivalent of a full term, and said, "Under no circumstances will I be a candidate for or accept another nomination." He repeated the statement in 1907, before the next nominating convention. And yet in 1912 Mr Roosevelt ran for the Presidency on the Bull Moose ticket. COOLIDGE STILL A RIDDLE There is great dispute among many contemporary politicians and writers who were. close to Colvin Coolidge as to whether ho really did wish the Republican nomination in 1928, after saying: "I do not choose to run for President in 1928." Maybe the riddle will never be solved, but certainly the word "choose" can be interpreted to mean that Mr Coolidge would not deliberately seek, but might. accept, the nomination. Many a political observer, intimate with the Vermonter, firmlv believes that Mr Coolidge was griev'iously disappointed when he was not renominated. Some others take a contrary view, basing it upon Mr Coolidge's alleged fore-knowledge of the state of his health. In any case, there can be little doubt that Mr Coolidge could have been reelected in 1928. at least on the argument that he had not had two full terms. And even if he had been in the White House eight years, so great was his prestige that he surely would have been re-elected in the face of the " tradition." That is the view of most political experts. For this "tradition" against a third term is not so strong as many may think. It has been challenged by many Presidents: as Grant and Theodore Roosevelt. Quite possibly the latter, had the electoral fight been between only two candidates in 1912, would have broken the tradition. In Theodore Roosevelt's case, however, it would not have been a successive third term, A BREAKER OF TRADITION Moreover, President Franklin Roosevelt is a breaker of traditions. If he considered in 1940 that his work was far from done, acting with the deep and zealous convictions lhat few will deny him—though they may question his wisdom—it seems probable that he would attempt a third term. What the result would be is another story. His re-election would depend on the unitv within his own party and the strength of the Republican candidate and platform. It. is hard to conceive of a third or New Deal Party being able to win, and if the President should precipitate a real party split it seems most probable that the irreduc- . ible minimum of 17,000,000 Republicans would be successful. Mr Roosevelt's own friends would be divided on the third-term issue. Now, before the Rubicon is anywhere near crossed, many of these friends are talking strongly against the attempt. They fear it would do their cause of liberalism infinite harm by stimulating a great adverse reaction.. But such advice would not deter Mr Roosevelt if he made up his mind, but veteran observers here certainly would not exclude the possibility of his running. On the contrary.