THE OTAGO DAILY TIMES WEDNESDAY, MARCH 18, 1936. THE FALLING BIRTH RATE

Otago Daily Times, Issue 22833, 18 March 1936, Page 8

THE OTAGO DAILY TIMES WEDNESDAY, MARCH 18, 1936. THE FALLING BIRTH RATE

New Zealand has again been reminded, this time by a visiting cleric, Father Phillip Murphy, that a steadily declining birth rate “ can only spell national disaster.” The protest, to some, may appear to be rather strongly expressed. It is .clear, nevertheless, that the fact of a persistent fall, over a period of years, in the natural rate of population increase cannot be regarded with complacency. The relevant figures for last year enable some revealing comparisons to be made. The number of marriages in 1935 was the highest ever recorded in the Dominion. It is pointed out, with reason, that the growth of the marriage rate, which has been particularly pronounced since 1933, may be held to indicate a steady improvement in economic conditions. That is gratifying in itself. But successive increases in the number of marriages have not been accompanied by any check in the downward trend of the birth rate. More and more marriages, for economic, selfish or other reasons, arc childless. That is the only conclusion to be drawn from the statistics. The outstanding fact disclosed by the latest figures is that, for the eleventh year in succession, the birth rate was the lowest on record. There were actually fewer children burn in New Zealand in 1935 than in any year since 1906, when the population was about two-thirds of what it is to-day. The continuing fall in the rate during the worst years of the

depression was to be anticipated, and there was a tendency to regard it as purely temporary. Statistics have shown, however, that the depression merely emphasised a long-persisting decline, from which there is still no evidence to suggest that a recovery will he made. In 1931 the number of births was 26,022, representing a rate of 18.42 per thousand of mean population. The figures for 1935 were 23,975 births, representing a rate of 16.14 per thousand. The movement toward a stationary population, as is well known, is not confined to New Zealand. In 1933 —the latest year tor which statistical information is available—the number of births in England and Wales corresponded to a rate of 14.4 per thousand of the population. As in the case of New Zealand, this was the lowest rate ever recorded, being considerably less than half the maximum figure of 36.3, touched in 1876. There is, however, no consolation to be had from the fact that other countries are treading the same dangerous path as ourselves. New Zealand, as students of this particular social problem are continually pointing out, cannot possibly divorce natural development from vital considerations of population. There are nations in the world to-day searching for outlets for their surplus peasantry. The possibility envisaged by Father Murphy, of “ hordes sweeping down from the north ” to people the lands which we refuse to people ourselves, is not pleasant to contemplate. For reasons that are suggested in the article which follows, this is a possibility that may be exaggerated. Yet it is a disturbing thought that it may have some relation to the realities of the present situation.