THE OTAGO DAILY TIMES TUESDAY, OCTOBER 11, 1932. THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 21772, 11 October 1932, Page 8

THE OTAGO DAILY TIMES TUESDAY, OCTOBER 11, 1932. THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.

The turmoils of the presidential election in the United States have yet another month in which to run their course. It is the accepted thing that while the campaign is in progress many attempts should be made to forecast the outcome. Magazines and newspapers spend large sums with the object of ascertaining the preferences of their readers. In a British community an appeal from such sources by means of what is calleda “straw vote” would probably be viewed askance by the majority of those to whom it was directed, and would fall very flat. The electorate in the United States has been educated on different lines. It seems to find satisfaction in abandoning itself to all the diversions attending the orgie of publicity which is an outstanding feature of a presidential election contest. The Literary Digest, a publication associated with many “straw polls,”particularly in regard to the prohibition issue, has been seeking to test public feeling respecting the chances of the presidential candidates, and has announced that out of nearly 800,000 votes counted by it Mr Franklin Roosevelt, the Democratic candidate, has a majority of 75,000 votes over Mr Hoover. That may not, of course, be entirely significant in relation to the probable results of the polling on November 8. But the indications seem generally to point to a close and interesting contest. The cabled messages

have latterly provided a reflection of waves of feeling for the Republican or the Democratic nominee. A development to which some significance is attached has been the nomination by Tammany Hall of Mr J. O’Brien for the New York mayoralty, rendered vacant through the retirement of Mr James J. Walker. It is apparently considered that New York State is now safe for Mr Franklin Roosevelt. That is important to the Democrats, for the voting strength of this State is the largest in the Union. Some weeks ago it appeared not unlikely that Mr 'Roosevelt, who is Governor of New York State, would lose ground as a presidential candidate over the Walker episode. The upshot of the investigation into Mr Walker’s doings as Mayor of New York was that he resigned, and then launched a violent attack against Mr Roosevelt. It was suggested in some quarters that the development had made it doubtful whether Mr Roosevelt could carry New York State, with the result that he might lose the presidency entirely on the Walker issue unless something could be done to bring Tammany Hall to his support. For some time uncertainty prevailed as to whether Tammany, with which Mr Walker had been so closely identified, would again nominate him as mayoral candidate. The fact that it has not done so is no doubt of political significance. Tammany has perhaps not wished to run the risk of being held responsible for a defeat of the Democratic Party. In his attitude towards the Walker investigation Mr Roosevelt did not allow himself to be influenced by the. fact that the Mayor personified Tammany Hall and was, like himself, a member of the Democratic Party. In consequence he has generally been credited with showing moral courage. But judging by the records of the past Mr Roosevelt will be rather fortunate if he secures a majority in New York, One Democratic journal has pointed out that New York City does little for Democratic aspirants for the White House, as, with the exception of the unusual year 1912, its electoral votes have not been cast for a Democrat for the Presidency since 1892. Some months ago it was said Avith show of authority that agreement was general that the stage was set for a Republican defeat next month. That view was largely based on the swing of opinion shown in Congressional and by-election results, and on the assumption that there would be a heavy vote against the party which has been .in power during the great domestic troubles which have been experienced in the United States. Mr Hoover’s chances of re-election were said to depend largely on the possibility of cleavages in the Democratic Party. Messages of last week-end report “ a wave of reaction ” in Mr Hoover’s favour as a result of his campaign speeches. But the political analyst of the situation, when a presidential election is impending, is apt to be more assiduous as a commentator than venturesome as a prophet.