THE TRADE CYCLE.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 18053, 29 September 1920, Page 4

THE TRADE CYCLE.

America was the most fortunate of tlie belligerents in the world war. Her death roll and war expenditure were comparatively low, and though she rendered timely and valuable aid to the Allies, her scars of battle are not deep. She suffered little dislocation in trade, and consequently she is to-day in the most favoured position among her rivals. Her good fortune arose in large part because of her geographical position, and the set of circumstances which delayed her entry into the war was all in her favour. The latest cablegrams have confirmed the knowledge which close students of world events have had for some time. The trade of America is expanding at an unprecedented rate, and there- is much ground for tho fears now expressed. Indeed, there appears to be no reason why America's trade should noc go on expanding. Since the beginning of tho war in 1914 the United States has built up a trade balance against the world of £3,400,000,000 (measuring the dollar at 4s). This exceeds by several billions the total balance in favour of the "United States from 1875 to 1914. In the fiscal year of 1914, one month before the war began, the trade balauce ■was only £94,000,000. Since 'then it has increased by fabulous sums, until it has now reached the giant total'mentioned. From the position' of a debtor nation the United States has become a great creditor nation, and it is not surprising to find her reaching out on unprecedented lines for the world's trade. Her present trade grip was shown recently by Mr James H. Maurer, president of tho Pennsylvania State Federation of Labour-, who was speaking as one .unsympathetic to production. Mr Maurer said: ■ \V:th but 6 per cent, o'f tho population of the world, and only 7 per cent, of the land, tho United States—that means US —produces:— Eighty-five per cent.- of the woi-ld's supply of automobiles; seventy-five per cent, of the world's supply of corn; sixty-five per rent, of the world's supply of oil; sixty per cent, of the world's supply of copper; sixty per cent, of the world's supply of aluminium;'fifty per cent of tho worfds supply of cotton; fifty per cent

of the world's supply of zinc; forty-two per cent, of tho world's supply of coal; forty per cent, of tho world's supply of load; forty por cent, of tho world's "supply of silver; forty per cent, of tho world's supply of stool; twenty-five per cent, of tho world's supply of wheat; twenty-fivo por cent, of tho world's supply of gold and refines; and operates forty por cent, of tho world's railroads. Truly a staggering total! ' There is no reason whatever to doubt that America, typified in tho United States, is out after world trade, and there is doubtless, therefore, much solid foundation behind tho recent cablegrams. At the same time it is questionable whether there real reason for a spirit of panic. The United States was destined to play a leading part in the world's commerce, and the war has perhaps only hastened the day. Trade rivalry, conducted on righteons lines, is not necessarily to be deprecated. r Great Britain is not yet by any means a "has been," and her reputation for fair dealing is a valuable asset—even in America. The special correspondent of Tho Times recently wrote a series of articles on the American industrial outlook. Ho pointed out that, whereas the leaders of industry recognised that in their pursuit of foreign trade they must necessarily corae into greater competition with Great Britain, they expressed nothing but friendliness, respect, and in many cases. admiration for Great Britain. They emphasised the fairness, and even admitted the sportsmanship in competition, which was a characteristic of the Old Land; . From now until October 7 the English delegates'* who have "been attending the Toronto Congress will be discussing trade matters in Washington. The coming expansion in world trade may even do something towards the rehabilitation of regular methods of supply, and that in itself may have a stabilising influence on world prices.