GERMANY IN TRANSITION

Otago Daily Times, Issue 17900, 3 April 1920, Page 7

GERMANY IN TRANSITION

REACTION DYING SLOWLY. FUTILITY OF NEW REVOLUTION J'OIUiSEEN.

'1 ho possibility of a revolution in Germany was discussed by Mr Cyril Brown, special reprofjontativo of the New York World, in a series of articles published in that newspaper last month, ilis conclusion \ym that, given half a chance, tho German people could como out of the reconstruction period a3 a real republic. It is easy to be fooled about the Germany of to day ,ho wrote. It still looks and acts very much like the old Germany. Must of the machinery of the old Imperial State is still intact and functioning, because there has not been timo to substitute a brand-now set of democratic works all along tho line. The old men ar.d methods aro pors.sting under tho ncar-republican regime with tho vitality of nine-lived cats. The old men and methods must patiently be rooted out one by one. The task of democratising Germany is too big to be done all at onco and quickly. B<ui the fact remains that Germany is democratising itself with painstaking slowness and thoroughness. Out of the wreckage' of the old Empire a new democratic Germany is pulling itself together and arising, although it will bo a long while before the last vestige of tho Imperial wreckage is cit;away. A suggestive small sign of the changing times is the cropping up of popular interest in Germany's first Presidential election— which mav not take place before next fall. Hindenburg is be in;' &e.riou6ly discussed as a Presidential possibility. The popular belief is that he can have the nomination handed to him on a silver salver if he will take it, and that he'll win in a walk if he runs. Democratic politicians, however, aro not worrying about Hindcn'ourg s can- | didacy. They admit he would have a good i chance of winning but say it wouid prove i purely; a pktor.ic victory for the parties of : right, as President Hindenburg, under the J new Constitution, would have no chance of i starting anything rough in the way of re- ; action and restoration of Kaiserism. j EBERT LIKELY TO BE SHELVED. ; I havo heard quite a number of Germans j say that Fritz Ebert will certainly not bo j. re-elected President. Tliere is not-ning | against "Papa" Ebert except that *ie started I life as a saddler's apprentice; and most Gerj mans seem to experience a sense of humiliaj tion at having n mere saddler as the repreI sentativo head of the Government. R Io the ; Teuton taste a heavy-weight like Hinden- ! burg would bo an ideal dignified figurehead. | "SOCIAL MONARCHY" IDEAL. Kaiserism (old style) has gone for good. Barring a very few incurable cranks ,nobody wants the return of the Kaiser. There is a whole lot of sentimental monarchical feeling left in the German people. ' But even the most loyal royalists, the j hardest shelled Prussian Junkers, are talk- • ing merely of some dav setting up a social ] monarchy, more or less implying equal j rights arid opportunities for all. Even extreme reactionaries would be glad to compromise on a democratic monarchy. The Nationalists would be satisfied wifcji a "symbolic" monarch shorn of all real power. A largo proportion of tho Clericals (Germany's Catholics) would, welcome the parliamentary system, plus the pomp of an important royalty. But there is no serious suggestion that Kaiserism could or should come back. Any serious attempt to pull off a counterrevolution and restore tho monarchy would be countered and spiked bv a general strike. And most. Germans want quiet and order, now, and prefer heated press polemics to civil war. It looks, therefore, as if democracy had come to roost in Gerifiany for quite a long spell, if not for good. WEATHERING THE STORM. The present Government should weather all inner political storms until tho first general elections to be held under the new Constitution. The Coalition Government is not gaining in strength or popularity, however. It is too heavily handicapped by the hentago of the old regime, which it is forced to liquidate to tho best of its none '• too great ability. The hard peace which it signed won't prove a popular vote-getting platform. The Coalition is probably still supported by a scant majority of the German people, but this o slender margin is being whittled down day alter day. The inner political drift is strongly toward the Right. Recent local elections confirm this. The Coalition is therefore playing good politics by stubbornly clinging to power and stalling about fixing tli,s date for the new elections, hoping for a chance turn of the inner political tide. If the elections are finally held next fall the new republic should be sufficiently consolidated and strengthened l>y then to wiiustand a pt>siblo change of Government. If the parties of tho Right then wiri out by a narrow margin the change should prove no more counter revolutionary than i£ a Republican Administration were to sucoccd the Democratic one in America. HARD WORK EXTOLLED. Tho first new coin of the German' Republic has just been issued. It is a 50 pfennig piece of aluminium, and bears the simple democratic legend, "Hard work brings blessings." Artists are at work on designs for further Republican coins. Gorman paper money, too, is being democratised as fast as it wears out and iew printings aro run off the over-worked presses. Bank notes of the Imperial era arc as rarbly seen nowadays as the dodo. On the othor hand, the newest issue of paper money, a '50-mark bill, shows tho new democratiscd Germania—a sweet young thing with appealing pacifist oyes and no mailed corset or any other' militaristic or monarchists articles of apparel. Reminders of militarism and monarchy aro being weeded out wherever the Government spies a possible chance. -The daily guard mount and parade up tho Linden with band playing, familiar to former visitors to Berlin, hava been abolished by Noske's order. Noske has also issued an edict forbidding the new army, the Reichswehr, to carry and display the old Imperial flag—the black, white, and red. REWRITING HISTORY. Tho Hohanzollern pictures, Kaiser and Crown Prince, have been ordered to be removed from school class rooms. The history books are to bo rewritten and. everything expurgated _ tending to _ glorify monarchy., imperialism, and militarism. Now democratic school books ari3 to be made available to tho yotith of the country as soon as possible. School libraries are to be cleansed of chauvinistic, imperialistic, militaristic, nationalisatic, monarchistic, or anti-Semitic matter. The old war machine has been broken up and scrapped past reassembling and repair. The old model war machine lives on only as a tradition. . HAS MAKINGS OF NEW WAR MACHINE. Germany has all the makings of a great new war machine, including its millions, of trained veterans and all the old war material except tho relatively small portion surrendered under the armistice terms. Even if there were no Treaty of Versailles, tho time is not ripe yet for creating a cotossal new military machine. But the military instinct is impelling tho German Republic to exploit every long chance and opportunity for creating a larger military plant than is ultimately allowed under the terms of the treaty. The new Germany's ostensible sole army, the 60called Roichswehr, or army of national defence, was according to the last available figures approximately 400,000 strong, and said to consist of 41 brigades. Tho Roichswehr must, under the Versailles Treaty, be reduced ultimately to 100,000. but the present Government will fight hard, for a revision of the military terms and plead earnestly for Allied permission to keep the standing army at a minimum strength of 200,000, organised on paper us follows:—44 regiments infantry, 23 regiments , cavalry, 20 regiments' artillery, '21 battalions • pioneers, with miscellaneous formations in proportion. It is tho intention to bring this nucleus army to tho highest pitch of perfection; to make it an elite army throughout. Backing up this national army of defence is a large and growing reserve of so-called "zeitfreiwillige," or "time volunteers." These can be called on for active service at any time. They can be used as a reserve to fill up or increase the size of the standing army, formations, or they oould easily be into new formations. These "time volunteers," who havo regular drills, aro mostly pickod men, old soldiers, seasoned war veterans, non-commissioned officers and officers. For all practical purposes the time volunteers constitute a potential army of very high fighting value, which can be turned into a fighting reality almost instantly on call. VOLUNTEERS GROWING. ' Tho number of time volunteers is conservatively estimated at 300,000 men. It is growing. A third potential German army consists of tho so-oalled Sicherhejtswehr, sometimes spoken of as the Green Police. They aro a fine body of pickod fighting men, garrisoned in the principal cities and doing duty as militarised police. They are fully armed, equipped and uniformed liko tho Regular Army, and aro commanded by professional officers and highly-trained staffs. These military police appear to bo in possession of a fair lino of war material, including machine guns, artillery, and motorisod transports. A conservative estimate t'f

these troops, not provided for under the Treaty of Versailles, is 150,(XX), with tha total growing steadily. , ' A fourth potential German army, although. ■ not to bo taken bo seriously aa the foregoing, consists of the so called Einwohnerwehren. These are formations, of citizens' guards or civic militias. They are springing up all oyer Orraariy. Th C y have depots of arms and ammunition. but no uniforms, fio far, they wo not being organised , into larger units. Their ostensible function is to assist in maintaining law and order, particularly in the poorly policed provinces. Enrolment is voluntary and without pay. UNDER LOCAL CONTROL. Tha eiiMeas' militia organisations nro under the jurisdiction of tho local civio authorities, with the Minister of the Interior aa Commander-in-Chief. They may prove only a passing phase of the new rcpublio militarism, perhaps to bo replaced later by a more highly organised militia system if opportunity offers. Their number is placed at approximately 400,000, and growing. "Lastly, there are the so-called Baltio troops, including the Iron Division, the Corps Bormondt, Wagner, Plehve, and other formations. Before being pußed out of the Kiltie they numbered approximately 60,000. "There is talk of "secret depots" of arma and ammunition in various parts of Germany, persistent reports that Germany has thousands of guns loft, including many of largo oalibre, and enough miscellaneous war material for 2,000,000 men. Up to quita recently certain factories were understood to bo still turning out war materials, including such specialties as armoured car# arid trench excavators. There is no shortage of airplanes for commercial, police, and postal aviation. , appears to bo no serious chance. However, that the present coalition Government will ever undertake to co-ordinate.all ■this warlike machinery into one big fight--Imachine, and any such attempt would undoubtedly be spiked by a general strike on tho part of Socialists of all complexions. It might ba pulled off under certainchange<l conditions.