NOTES ON THE WAR GABLES.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 17424, 19 September 1918, Page 5

NOTES ON THE WAR GABLES.

By Shrapnel. THE WRITING ON THE WALL. By the shortening of the Lys salient and their withdrawal irom the great Somme salient the Germans have greatly shortened their line from the sea to the Oise. Only at La Bassee is there a slight bulge in the British line, and this slight salient of the i German lino Sir Douglas Maig is continu- ' ally reducing by his methodical advances ; north and south of La Bassee. By the s withdrawal from the two salients in Northern I'ranee the Germans have added irom - 30 to 40 divisiqps to the density of their t defensive forces, and no doubt tho reduction ■ of the St. Miiuel salient lias enabled them to add two or three more divisions to their reserves. The addition of 400,000 to its depth should give some weight to the defence. Since the offensive of Marshal Foch commenced, however, over 50,600 prisoners have been taken, and the German casualties will easily bo three times the number of prisoners. Therefore, if this estimate, which is modest enough, be nearly correct, the Germans are 200,003 men on the wrong side of the ledger as the result of the past few weeks' operations. That the High Commands are very hard pushed in ' the matter of maintaining the number of men to the yard requisite for safe defence 1 is to be seen from the fact that Austrians 1 and Bulgarians are being called upon to ' help the Germans to hold the west front. No doubt the discovery of Austrians and Bulgar troops on the west front has called for greater activity in Northern Italy and at_ Salonika. Now that the Allies have initiated a successful offensive in Macedonia, Bulgaria will not be disposed to weaken her armies to such an extent that sho will be able greatly to strengthen tho i German forces in France. Italy can maintain her pressure upon the Austrian lines, and for every Austrian sent to the west front she can at the same time reply by sending man for man. Germany may strain every muscle and drain every German and Austrian depot, but sho will not bo able to equalise the strength of the Allies on the west front. In two months America can place as many men in France as the allies of Germany can afltard to send in nine months. Great Britain can keep her armies up to strength, and Franco has not yet put the whole of her 1918 class in tho field. Germany, on tho other hand, lias called up her 1920 class. should not be forgotten, either, that in Northern Africa there is a great field of recruitment for France of power-fully-built black troops, whoso brethren 1 have, when well led by French officers, proved themselves to be a match for the best German troops. Algerians and Ka biles from Moroccan highlands showed themselves 1 to be second to none in tho hot fighting 1 that took place round Verdun when the Crown Prince made his great attack upon that bastion of the Mouse line. Germany cannot rna.inta.iii an army in Franc© numbering over 3,000,000 without withdrawing ■ men from her navy and her essential in- . dustries, while, by the end of spring next year, if America continues to pour men into 1 I 1 ranee as she is now doing, the armies of 1 the Allies ehould number six millions. Under such conditions not only the reaching i of the Rhine by the Allies, but the crossing of that great river, is within sight within a year. The crossing of tho Rhine does not present the great difficulty which some people imagine. Aeroplanes and long-range howitzers and field guns will make the crossing a matter of no supremo difficulty. Moreover, when the Allies reach the Rhine Germany will have lost 58 per cent, of her iron supplies, and tho Allied airmen will be near enough to Essen to make two raids a day and to lay the ICrupp worlds in ruins. If tho Allies keep up the offensive during the winter the early months of next year should be signalised by an advance upon the Rhine, and as a result of the present offensive and a campaign Germany will not have enough men to man tho right bank of the Rhine. If she is to man tho river she must get her armies back to it post haste. Like Austrian she must get peace by hook or crook, as the world, with the exception of a few neutrals, is marching against her. By this time next year the great Czeck-Slovak Union should bo up in arms and knocking at the doors- of the eastern points of tho Central Powers. THE OUTLOOK ON THE BATTLE LINES. Apparently the Germans are putting up a strong defence against the Allied troops facing eastward from the sea to the Aisnc, but no doubt the weather and the necessitv of repairing the communications behind the Allied front are factors that are enabling the Germans to make a stand along the old lines of defence. Round St. Quentin the British and French troops are making very slow progress, and to all appearances are fairly well held by the Germans along tile old Hindenburg line as far north as Havrincourt; but along the whole front mentioned it is most probably the work of mending roads and bridges that is greatly delaying the British. When the guns and munition bases are established near enough to the front line there will be a chango in the rate of 'progress. In the St. Quentin region it is the guns that the Allies are waiting for. In the north—that is, north of the ArrasCambrai road, at La Bassee, and on the La Bassee-Ypres sectors—tho British arc maintaining close contact with the Germans, and are demonstrating against them at La' Bassee, Neuvo Chapelle, and from Armentieres to the Ypres lines, so that by tho resistance that is offered they can to a certain degree divine the dispositions of tho enemy armies and the intentions of tho German High Commands. If the Germans do not defend La Bassee and the Aubers Ridge with the determination with which they usually defend points of such great ; strategical value, it will bo quite sufficient evidence that the Germans are about to abandon the present lino of defence and retire to the next, about 10 miles behind the present one. The time when that withdrawal will begin, it seems, is dependent upon tho speed with which the communications of tho Allies can bo put in order. Where the British are attacking south of tho La Bassee Oanal is the most difficult terrain in France, excepting perhaps tho German positions between the Aisne and Oise, south, south-west, and westward of Laon. It is equally difficult for the British ■to turn the position at the eastern end of the La Bassee Canal, cither from the north ' or from tho south, in close proximity to j the town of La Bassee; but the difficulty l may be lessoned to a great extent by the drain that is now being put upon the" German reserves The advance of the Franco- i American forces in the Woevre Plain may ' yet turn the whole position of the enemv's forces between the Mouse and St. Quentiu 1 and from Sit. Quentin to the sea. < In tho Champagne the French are either < feeling the enemy's strength by a de- • monstration in force, or are preparing for a heavy attack in that region. If they •! cculd push forward far enough to command . the gap of the Grand Pie, in the north J of the Argonno, the French would be I able to menace the return of Gorman troops 1 to Germany by all roads except those i through Belgium. If Marshal Foch becomes ' satisfied that the Germans are too weak t to undertake a counter-offensive from whore ' they are now held between Rheims and the ! sea, ho will perhaps undertake a heavy { stroke against tho Germans either in the t Champagne or north and east of Verdtin. ] 1 There are 420,000 men in tho British navy.