NOTES ON THE WAR CABLES.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 17140, 20 October 1917, Page 8

NOTES ON THE WAR CABLES.

BY SIHUPNEL

YPKES AND TlilC OUTLOOK.

Biui vvoiiujor tuui utu olieok at. i'daachenditulo aio lor tlio i-uil ol Uie past low days. air lxtug ropoits u raid jjorUi-Miist oi Amui. As "Uyut" oaiMUUtiea iuu lutmUoned, it may bo conuiuifetl Uiat, too raid was not two oi trio iiaU-a-uo/dn-iiieii ordw oi iuiUmg on tiiu Arraa .sector luoio uaa baen a good dciil of lalu, and iiom tiiu liujiiuicy oi tho and tliy puim.* u.t. wim-ii tm-y iiavo Uvii muxLo Uio uoudujioii to U) drawn is thai, u uiw ooßcUUcxiti and proupjeus m Flanders aro temporarily uiii-avoiuuuio ior tho con-uinuj-tiou oi Uio sucUoiuti offensive tficro, uisj may ix) mack) oi Cito Jugncr country Uesir Lous and iViTas to <Uvcii enemy guito <uid U'oops lroui mo Fiaaidera iw-v-tor.

From to tit. Uiu liiitith hold posiitiona tkiit c-iwulo tiicm to aliacii. witU advdiiuigo, aad a, auc-txsstul atcaok ttloug any part of taat lino vvitn tbo soiuo rusourccy and uiicrgy as liavo been employed at x prea would ait cot tlio G linim positions iu nortiieru more dangerously tlian U» ailvuuoe iu Flanders, wlioro tlio operations tiiat aj-o beiiig oaxried out ara not de,iigne<l so much to weaken the iino south of La Basseo as to remove the Germans from Uho i'laiiders ooast and tlirow the iiank against tlio borders of tlio snuili area oi Ilollajid south ol tlio bcheldt estuary.

Knowing tiiu value which tho Germans put upon retaining- a strip of tho ooast lacing tlio Strait oi Dover, and tho German politioal necessity oi periodically bombing London or tho towns on the south-oast ooast of England, Sir Douglas Haig is attacking ill inlanders because tho Gorma<ns must oithor meet him'there with largo forces or else abandon tlio coastal territory and suffer groat loss of prestige, whicli will atloct the inoralo not oniy oi tho Gorman soldiers in Franco, but also of tho German civilian population, witioh has been greatly heartened by stories of tho destruction of London and of tho great miseries of its millions. Even British prisoners in Germany aro troubled by tho repeated stories that London lias been partially destroyed. Released prisoners, when they hiavo reached Holland, havo been greatly relieved to hear that London still stands whero she was iboforo tho war.

As Germany is beaming alarmed at the prospect of British reprisals, raids upon London may bcoomo infrequent, and the reconquering of West Slanders may pass as a pressing necessity. Nevertheless, the work which has already been done in Flanders is very incomplete when tactically and strategically viewed, as far as it has gene. With the changes that will sooner or later take place further south, the strategical value of tho positions in Flanders will vary as regards tho war and its campaigns in France.

Germany seta greater store on her position in Belgium than tho Allied General Staff does, and Sir Douglas Haig is consequently not only thero to remove tho aerial and submarine menaces, but to seize the offered opportunities for killing Germans, that being the main cdncem of the Allied strategy at present. These attacks of tho British in Flanders arc hug«ly worrying the members of tho German General Staff. The Germans are afraid for political reasons to abandon tho coast. However much they miglit liko to withdraw, they must defend tho region to th-o last, both, for political reasons and in order that they may not lose Belgium as a pawn in the peace bargaining. Recognising the German points of view, 'as they do, tho high commands in Franc© are to a considerable extent playing upon tho German fears and_. obstinate reluctance to give up anything they have grabbed. THE LAND OF THE LOST CAUSE. The Washington message conveying tho opinion expressed by Mr Baker, Secretary of War, is a plain tale of what the British , aro doing in Flanders. If the wedge, of which Mr Baker speaks, is driven as far north as Thonrout or' Thielfc the Germans must retire from tho coast or the coastal forces will be cut off and a large haul of prisoners aDd booty will bo secured, while the British will bo able continuously to turn the German lino until the outskirts of Antwerp are reached. Frontal attacks.fn Flanders will, however, not be eliminated. What is meant is that the line south to St. Quentin will bo so shaken by the neecj of defending Antwerp and Brussels that the Germans will not hold to the positions in France as tenaciously as they have done. Still, there is much serious work to bo done before tho German positions north of Ypres and along the coast will ba shaken. Though the British havo taken most of the observation posts east and north-east of 2pr©s, tie Germans still hold several powerful and serviceable defensive and attacking positions. To get our guns forward we must take all the high ground west and south oi Roulers.

Another message records that a Congressman who is now in Paris, after spending six weeks at the front, says "the tide has turned." So it has. That <oold bo seen as long ago as when the Germans failed to take Verdun. They played themselves to a standstill there, as far as the west front is concerned. But the metaphor is not a good one. 'Germany is working out a problem in the East for the return of the tide—not the tide which will give her a decisive victory but one which will give her access to resources that will enable her to renew her strength. Certainly that is what she hopes to do. Her aim is to obtain thereby a compromise which will enable her to demand alternative and favourable concessions. Unexpected factors, inimical to all schemes and experiments of men, are liable to show themselves, and as the Allies are working along very cautious lines compared with those along which Germany is working in her effort to achievo something great, the Allies can look forward to the future with confidence. Germany is now the land of lost great opportunities. THE GREAT STROKE AGAINST RUSSIA. The German operations against the Russians up the mouth of the Gulf of Riga have fceen very successful, and it is not too mucsb to say, havo bean brilliantly carried out. It does not detract from the credit attaching to them that the Russian defence was weakened by the disorganisation within the country. Tho plan of operations was well conceived, and has been rapidly carried out. The Germans' task, however, is not complete. They have yet to make good their movement against the Russian rifhfc flank by obtaining a footing on the mainland. Of course, they will accomplish that feat, since the German fleet has now complete possession of tho Gulf of Riga, and the guns of the fleet can outrange any of the Russian coastal defence gums. The Germans' troubles, if tho Russians have tho right spirit in them, will commence when they are on the mainland in Livonia, if it is their object to land at Pernau or anywhere near that port.

Beforo tho Germans attempt to land crt the coast they will need to occupy the Island of Dago, for tho purpose of keeping up a throat against Hapsal and lleval, and making it awlcward for tho Ik-ssiau fleets to defend tho northern end of Moon or Mohn Sound. With the control of tho northern opening in tho Germans' hands, they would have little difficulty in keeping tho Russian fleet to tho north of Wormso and then effecting a landing at Hapaal, after which unless the Russians overwhelm the attacking forces, they will bo ablo to march upon Reval. All depends upon what forces Germany can bring to bear upon the Russians. The danger to Russia of the enemy's operations is so great that, in order to save Russia, the Allies ma-y have to launch great attacks both m Franco and Italy.