NOTES ON THE CABLES.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 17069, 30 July 1917, Page 6

NOTES ON THE CABLES.

Bt Shbapnet.. GERMANY'S DOWN GRADE. Though the losa by Russia of her hardearned and valuable strategic gains is disastrous and painful, and though that loss and the sequel of tho revolution have deplorably affected the plans of tho Allies, the offensive of tho Austro-Gcrmahs and the Kussian debacle between Brody and the Dniester would seem to have betrayed a state of affairs in regard to German strength U and reassuring. Ihe fact that tho German commanders haw not been able to envelop- the 7th and Bth J^l by P" more rapidly beyond Tarnopol and wheeling to the right shows how careful Germany has to be with her man-nower Writing early in June. Colonel Repington, military correspondent of Tho Times, stated that Germany .had 156 divisions on the west front and 76 on the Russian, while there were also on the southern flank of tho Russian front 36 divisions of Austroilungaran troops. According to these figures the total German divisions at that nme on the two fronts were 232 The French say to-day that there are 71 divisions opposmg them, those forming one-third ot the total number of divisions Germany £S l" / i^l 4 " S °' thon ' G °rmany hai had her field forces reduced to 213 divisions, lhat means that sho has suffered the loss of 19 divisions on the west front, for the losses on the Russian front wilMiave been munatenal owing to the small amount of fighting that has been carried on against the purely German'forces.. Probably five or six German divisions have been withdrawn from the eastern front to reinforce the west, and, if the greater number bo taken, the Germans now have 13 divisions • less on the west front than they had in March—for Colonel Repington's estimate of the total German forces was based on figures m his hands in March. Now the loss of 13 divisions does not cover the whole loss of 'the Germans on tho west front, and the number of divisions withdrawn from the east front is very problematical. An estimate of five or six divisions is. modest, in order to bo on ™™ *&" , If we tako 2° divisions at AI,IXXJ each—a high figure now since we know the Germans have reduced their divisions to a handier size—tho losses of the Germans since March would be only 400 000 on all counts. Their losses on the west front in killed and disabled and in prisoners, apart from the wastage through sSckness,_ cannot, in view of the nature of the fighting that has taken place, be less than 600,000 since March, or somewhere near 40 divisions. From what is known -of the British losses alone this year, that also is a modest estimate. At the beginning of tho war Germany could find 600,000 eligible recruits for the end of the first year, but •that number greatly and progressively decreased during the following years, and owing to the voluntary enlistments that took place, it is believed by many critics that Germany cannot this year put many more than 200,000 young men in the field. She has, however, lost an average of more than half that number every month sines the. spring campaign began on the west front. / In consideration of tho facts that the British ore being maintained at their original numbers by recruitment and by arrivals from overseas, that Portuguese troops are now fighting alongside tho British, and that American forces have already landed and others will soon follow, the prospects of the Allies for 1918 are wholly bright and those of tho Germans correspondingly black. VVith such orospects in view and with no chance of peace being secured this year, great as_ the German advance has been in Galicia, it has been one of extreme caution, especially since the Russians have over a great part of the front, north and south of Tarnopol, been actually bolting, and since it is said, they were observed by the Austrians to be fighting amongst themselves. From what has been Tevealed of Germany's inability to smash the wretchedly disorganised and weakened Russia, ,the Allies will now know how "definitely to shape thenstrategy. Although, until the Americans land a million men or -o. the burden of maintaining the offensfve will fall chiefly on Great Britain, there is good causo for believing that Britain, France, and Italy, without Russia's assistance—and Russia has not yet deserted them—can more than hold their own until tho United States throws in tho weight which will' rapidly decide the war.

THE WEST FRONT. , . • The artillfiry duel on the Flanders front and in the part of Franco between Flanders and a. point south of Axmentiere a still continues, -with this special feature about it, that the British established for 48 hours an increased fire pf unparalleled intensity. So great was its effect that British reconnoit-ring-parties penetrated.as far as the second German line. This penetration must have demonstrated to the British Staff that the Germans are adopting; the plan, for economy of life, of withdrawing their men from the lines that are being drenched by the British artillery. For the first time Sir Douglas Haig refers to the intensity of the artillery fire on both sides. A French report also mentions the furious nature of the bombardments on their front The great increase of the German artillery fire on the west front is partly due, no doubt, to the increased number of guns' turned, out, but it may also bo that the guns which are being manufactured are, except those for naval purposes, being sent to the west front To these will have been added heavy guns, howitzers that have been withdrawn from the Russian side.

How long this duel is going to continue without infantry attacks no one can divine, but if raiding and great aeroplane activity aro any guide, as they have been in the past, then an attack is shortly to take place. There are two reasons why an attack should soon be made by the British. One is that it is a strategical necessity, for later purposes, to prevent the Germans from continuing their attacks upon the French with £io object they have in view of draining France of her strength. The other reason is that Russia and Rumania would be grateful for assistance at this moment. If it is a part of the plan to relieve the .Russians of pressure, an attack by the Italians should synchronise with one of the British. RUSSaRUMANIANi FIGHTING. On the Russian front the retreat in Galicia continues, and the Petrograd correspondent of the Daily News states in a long and dismal message the causes of the treat and of the loss of positions on a 100-mile front. Not only are the fleeing troops throwing away the hard-won positions, but are also throwing the communi-cations-behind the retreat into confusion by seizing the trains that are containing stores and ammunition for the front, and using the trains to enable themselves to escape.

The correspondent of the Daily News says that General Brusiloff's splendid positions north-west of Taraopol would have been thrown away if the Germans had been in force and the retreat of the southern armies been cut off. This statement is satisfactory as indicating that the Germans will, because of shortage of men, not be able to do much more than they have done, and that they are still afraid of the strength of the Russians. Their inability to extend their victories to the north of Galioia and to proceed more rapidly eastward and southward of Tarnopol shows that the Germans believe that the Russians have the men and the power of sudden recuperation which, if developed, would turn the tables against themselves.

While the Germans are gaining ground in Gatfcia, it is stated that the Russians north of the Pripefc, near Smorgon, are fightin"successfully. The report comes from the Russian Embassy at Washington, and should, therefore, contain ap considerable amount of troth. As this "is a very important sector the threat on tho part of the Russians should tend 'to relievo the pressure of the Galician front. The Rumanians, too, are doing then- best, for they have attacked heavily in Moldavia, on the Sereth line, near the Carpathians, and have penetrated the Austrian lines to a depth of 12 kilometres (about eight miles), capturing several villages, many guns and mine-throwers. ' The captures afford sufficient proof that they have thrown the Austriaos into a state of demoralisation. If the Russians can replace the mutinying troops with stable divisions, there is a great chajce the* the Germans will not only be he 1 J up, but will be driven back, and much Jopcnds, however, upon the number of guns and the amount of munitions that the I **nwsJMi3 Jtarw on imnrl '•