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Otago Daily Times, Issue 16785, 29 August 1916, Page 4

The long delayed declaration of war byItaly against Gen many has at last been issued. Why it was not issued sooner is one of those questions to which it may be difficult to secure a satisfactory answer, for there can be no doubt that Germany has given Italy repeated cause for the step that has now been, taken. It has been suggested that it was the desire of Italy that the declaration should como not from herself but from Germany, and in explanation of this the financial awl intellectual permeation of her country by Germany during the past 30 years lias been cited. Of the measure of the " peaceful penetration " of Italy by Germany a writer in the Coptemporary Review gives some indication: — It is difficult for those who have no experience, of Italian life to apiircciate the Teutonisation of some of its aspects. The number of aiticles of common use made in Germany L-> legion. In 1912 German manutactured coocK exported to Italy wciu valued at over 16i millions steihng; British, 5 millions. Italian industries, have been predominantly financed by Gorman capital and organised on German methods. The story of the exploitation of Italian trade and industry by tho German triumvirate ot tho Banco. Com mercia lo Italiana is one of the most extraordinary revelations of the conquest, of political and social influence by economic penetration in recent history. The \ory Latin cla.ssict> Used in It.dian public schools are printed, edited, and published in Germany, and the loading authorities on Italian philology' aro German. French and Italian codes of civil and commercial legislation have been largely superseded by German. Italian factory and social legislation has been modelled on German lines. And so on. The extent to which German influence has been, and is, exerted in Italy has no doubt been a factor of considerable weight in pos*poning the rupture between the two eountiics. It was inevitable, however, that the break should come. Now that the declaration of war has been issued it constitutes in itself an additional proof of the solidarity of the Allies and of their unity of purpose.

The -war is, it seems, like so many other things, the subject of betting. Short odds aie. we are told in one of the cable messages tin.? morning, being laid in England that the conflict will be ended liefore Juno next Theie is appaiently no Miggebtion that, in default of .some cata>cl\ i>imc occur icnce or of s»me internal molt, concerning which it would be e:\liemelv foolish to offer am prediction, the teiimnation of tho war may be looked for until another niinmcr is, in sight on the Continent. That means that, according to the icw of tho r e people who, profc-Mn'g to bo able to read the sign- of the t'mes better than tho aveiage ran or claiming per haps to be the tinned lqiosifoiics of i, hat n known as " inside, information," lightly asiinne the mantle of the piophete, the war may last for other nine montlis.

Speculation upon this point may safely bo dMcgardod. Thoie weio .singuine people in (Jieat Biitain "who .<-e\eial months ago (Ir-d.iH'd ])u-iLively that, the war -would end in Jul) or August of tho jiic-rcnt \o,ti Them .'no itupid people who, pietending that, in j-omi' in v.-tenons way they ha\o Im'oil the recipients of .1 miraculous 1 chelation, have specified paitßiilar dates in the ensuing tew months as marling the termination of ho-tiM.e-Wise people pay no attention \\liatc\ci to predictions of this or that kind Jt i.s beyond the power of anv Lnm.m boing to foieca-vt with any .ippnn-nnalion to a<<ur.iey tho period of tho end of th" w.ll Ho m.iny nnd m> diver'o aie the fnctoi ■> which enter into tho whole .situation tliat it is mipo-'-ililc to sa\ when the 1 nd will dome. But it has become perfectly evident that, if the war 1- to continue to run a cour.-o fomewhat wnrlar to that which it is r.innmg at the pie-ent time, wo havo to reconfi ,r> otiiFehos to the prospect of anotl er winter campaign and of a great deal of determined and bitter fighting before tho victory, which ifa now moro certainly attainable than ever, tan bo gained by tho Allies.

Wrnmrcr. tho war ends before next June or drags on for a considerable period after that, it has now reached a stage at which tho advantage of the initiative has passed definitely into the hands of tho Allies. Germany and her associates luuo been put in tho position that they ha\o to defend tho country of which they are in possession. Of their power; of resistance it is difficult for the ordinary public to form an\ real estimate. Even if it looks to the expert military correspondents for {riddance on this point it may find that tho judgments respecting it are so conflicting as to be simply confusing. But what must bo geneially apparent is the change in the tone which has come over tho recogn.sed authorities on military matters whose writings are published' in the German press. A tone of aggressive cocksureness ha 3 been replaced by one of grave concern. And this is manifested not moro largely about tho outlook on the eastern front, where the presence of huge reinforcements for Genen] Brusiloff'-s army is necessarily regarded as a most disquieting symptom, than about the outlook on the western front where the new British, army has developed qualities of gallantry, of endurance, and of resourcefulness which have led the King to write that "no troops could have fought more bravely," and which have even won reluctant tribute from a section of the German press*' Those members of the community who hoped that when the "b;g push " on the western front was inaugurated a spectacular advance might be anticipated are piobably disappointed with the results that are being realised by the Allied offensive. If co, their feelings are not shared by the French and British leaders. The offensive is being systematically conducted ou the lines which, it is quite clear, were prescribed. In the words of the Paris journal Le Matin the system of the thrust has given way to that of the squash. This has been deliberately done. Discussing the principle which would be adopted Le Matin said in the week following the commencement of the offensive: Wo shall make no attempt to rush matters, but hcjpo to gain our ends by a patient and methodical application of a plan which, whdo entailing enormous prodigality, economises vastly in men. Victory has become a moro question of weight of metal. Infantry no longer leads the way; aitillory alono conquers the giound; infantry simply serves to occupy anel hold what tho guns havo won. Progress by this means is necessarily slow, but it is sure. Tho application of this system not to this or that selected point, but incessantly along tho entire front, for days and weeks, and even months if need be, will constitute a drubbing against which the strongest foiiihcations in the world will finish by giving way. If luck is with us, it may be that some pait of tho German lino will break and give, enabling us to imitate tho magnificent onrush of tho Russians against the Austrians. This must not bo looked for, though ; if it happens it will bo accidental, and not intentional Tho probabilities are that tho enemy will fall back, bit by bit,' a little at a time. This we can now lely upon for at last we aro sure of our ability to wear him down. This is how wo shall win tho war. It is upon this principle that the offensive i.s being conducted.