NOTES ON THE CABLES.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 16663, 7 April 1916, Page 94

NOTES ON THE CABLES.

} ® Br Shbapnel. THE SITUATION AT VERDUN. The military correspondent of The Times if. a better man for news and opinions when at Verdun than he is when giving opinions from London. At Verdun the facts impress him, but in London various considerations colour his facts. His military training enables him to pick out, and in a few words mako clear to his readers, tho important conditions at Verdun and the positions that are influencing tho ultimate oatconjo of the struggle. The opinion expressed in these notes that in undertaking the attack upon Verdun Germany caught herself in a vyco eeems borne out by the continuation of the struggle. Reasons have been given for the initiation of tho attack. It is not uninteresting to recapitulate them, but it must be remembered that what factors governed the initiation of the attack havo varied in relative importance as the straggle becamo protracted, and as events did not progress according to tho German timetable.

'lhe causes which led to the attack were internal and external political conditions, dynastic considerations, tho necessity of anticipating the offensive of tho Allies on the west front, a victory in Prance to assist in raising p. German loan, tho depreciation of the Germun mark, waning influence in neutral diplomatic atmospheres, And the necessity of crushing the French in order cither to undertake a now offensivo against Russia or to meet the. menaco of the re-' organised Russian forces. Otf the external impulses which influenced the Germans, the fact that Balkan affairs were becoming ci'itical, the menace of Russia, and the depreciation of the mark were the most powerful. Since the beginning of the attempt. on February 25 the positional gains that havo been made and the enormous losses that have been incurred out of all proportion to the value of the gains have again impaired the reputation of the Crown Prince, even though he may bo only tho nominal leader. Tho peoplo of Germany know it is his corner, and that his army is making tho attempt and incurring the. enormous losses.

In the first flashes of success the Kaiser and tho Crown Prince posed on the horizon o| - the scenes. The limelight played \ipon them, and tho successes were the Crown Prince's. Scenes have changed, and the German Army is 'being hard struck, and the blame, in tho eyes of most Germans at home, .will fall. upon the Crown Prince. Now ™iat energises this fateful attempt of the Germans is' the honour of the German Army and the reputation of the Crown Prince. Tho vicissitudes o'f fortune have changed the point of view, and what 'were important causes at the beginning aro now of less significance. The struggle must now continue till one of the belligerents is broken or exhausted. To no one more than the Kaiser and his inefficient son is it imperative that the Germans shall take Verdun; and Oolonel Repington is not far wrong in saying that the German Army is being destroyed like sheep in a slaughtering pen in order that the Crown Prince may coniiect hie name with victory.

GERMAN CASuILTIES AND USING UP OF RESERVES.

Colonel Repington has before referred to the German reserves being used up, and in to-day's cablegrams he says:—"Tlie entire German line has been depleted to prevent the Crown Prince's failure." That is a sweeping statement, and requires sorrje qualification. It is known that the Germans have increased the numbers opposing the British, especially in the' Ypres, Amu., and Lens sectors; but tbfbee numbers 'are the numbers required to meet the British. If' whole British front joined battle with the intention of breaking the German line, without fresh troops being rushed to 1 the front, the German forces would be in the end without reserves, and the enemy front would. be broken somewhere by the superior forces of "the British. What Colonel Repington. means is that, wherever possible—that is, where no attack of tho French is immediately expected— tho trenches have been left without supports. There are certain parts of the iinc where the Germans know it would not be of any strategical value for the French to gain ground unless certain other leading positions were taken. The Germans are aware that tho time is not opportune for any great offensive by General Joffre. Even British and French papers have generously given the enemy that information. That tho Crown Prince has had to drawlargely upon other parts of the west front or get reinforcements from tho Russian front is apparent from tho enormous losses that the Germans havo snffcred, and also from the fact that tho French are being continually reinforced.

By the end of February tho German losses were 200,000, or extremely near that number. The New York Times says that .by February 25 the losses ' were already 150,000. By that dato the real attack on tho defences of Verdun had 'begun, and the slopes of Douaumont and the northern lines were the sccncs of slaughter. Since. then the struggle has gone on with varying intensity, tho lulls coming in between the changes of phase. In the present phase there has been vpry heavy fighting, not only again at Douaumont and Vaux, but also for many clays in the Mcuso heights, where .the fighting lately has been as intense as it has been at any time east c? tho Meuse. The casualties of tho Germans, seeing that this titanic battle has raged for nearly six weeks since £he 150,000 mark was reached, must be nearing half a million. Should this estimate be' too much by 100,000 or moro, and tho battle continues much longer, whether tho Germans take Verdun or not, it will be to them an irreparable disaster, but, if they fail, it will be a defeat of incalculable decisive value to the Allies.

HOLLAND AND SIGNIFICANT EXPLANATIONS.

The Amsterdam Telegraat says Holland's precautions are simply to ensure protection against German, concentration on the frontiers. That has a somewhat different bearing than thp former opinion of the Telegraaf, that the Dutch Government regards the Allied offensive as imminent, and -wishes to sscuro the frontier against retreatingGerman troops. Concentration of Germans upon the frontier wears a niore sinister aspect than the possibility of being forced across the Dutch border. It meana that the Germans, with their usual thoroughness and unscrupulousness, are preparing fo use Dutch territory if the offensive sucocsses of the Allies renders such a course necessary, Jjoth- opinions, however, if they are expressive of the real fears or the intentions of the Government, suggest that, in the opinions of'the Dutch* the defeat of the Gertnans is looming in the near future, and that the defeat will bis so sharp nnd swift that the avenues of retreat south of Holland will not suffice the Germans in their hurry. It is a big thing that the Dutch are imagining, and it is to bo hoped that the reports of the Telegraaf indicate the true opinion of the Government, and that its feare are based on an infallible estimate.

CAUCASUS AND MESOPOTAMIA. Good news is arriving .from tho Middle East. , General Lake s forces are advancing towards Kut-el-Amara, and have ga,ined an important victory on the north bank of the Tigris. Tho position captured, though not ono which compels a retirement of the Turks, is of high strategical value, , and opens the road for further successes. Tho Russians oway to the north are gradually closing in on Trebizond from the east and south. It is a surprise to hear that tho Breslau is assisting the Turks. Where could tho Black Sea fleet be? Something must bo transpiring elsewhere, otherwise the .■Russian fleet should bo assisting the Rus-

sians and not the Breslau assisting thd Turks. South-west of Lake "Van the Russians are probably pushing towards Sert or Lliarbekir; if so, their action will be of great assistance to the British.