NOTES ON THE CABLES.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 16600, 25 January 1916, Page 6

NOTES ON THE CABLES.

Bx Shbahiel. AN INTERESTING ASSERTION. Tho dowh to-day is, on the whole, more (satisfying than vsu&L Perhaps the most striking item of interest ia a short cable from The Hues Balkan correspondent, who says that tho wheat purchased from Rumania will remain in that country until tho opening of the Dardanelles, and will bo deliverable on April 17. ■ Much depends upon what is meant by "will bo deliverable on tho 17th." If that means that Rumania will have the wheat ready for delivery on the 17th, it does not necessarily imply that tho Dardanelles will bo opened to British trade by that date, and the wheat thoraforo may remain in Rumania a long time beyond that date. Rumania will havo tho grain ready, and the method and means of taking it away is tho task of Britain and her Allies. Tho value of any other interpretation that can be put upon tho correspondent's statements dopends upon someone's deductions and tho source of information. Ordinarily it will bo assumed that he has received inside information from someone in high authority. Much may bo surmised from such an exact fixing of the date. If thero is anything in the story, it must mean that Rumania, and perhaps Greece, will take a very active part in Balkan affairs before that time. The fixing of tho date, however, must bo an assumption either on the part of the correspondent or someone else.

The mention of the date gives away to tho enemy tho intentions of the Allies, and no matter how impotent the enemy may bo, it is very bad policy to givo him any idea of what the Allies intend to do. If the correspondent has been given such information by any of tho military authorities in tho Balkann or in London, it must have been given with some ulterior motive. Possibly it is the intention of the Allies to movo against Bulgaria and Turkey at the earliest opportunity; but one thing is certain : Britain has bought up the remainder of tho 1915 harvest of Rumania in order that neither the Central Powers nor Bulgaria may get it. With little wheat of her own, Bulgaria oannot carry on a long campaign, and that statement is further enhanced by the fact that a great part of the Bulgarian people was averse to entering a war on behalf of Austria and Germany against Russia. Turkey, and even Austria, had for some time been drawing upon Bulgaria for food supplies, and Bulgaria is now finding herself . short. from, the Bulgarian army before Salorika assert that the enemy is short of food, and are for the statement that the theatrical, effects so nicely arranged at Nish did not inspire the Bulgarians with either enthusiasm or equanimity. It has already been pointed out that, without great assistance from the Central Powers, Bulgaria is not in the position financially or economically to carry on a long campaign, and especially up against tho forces and resources of the Allies.

Already Austria has been compelled to withdraw many men from iho Balkans to assist her armies in Galicia, and Germany must maintain strong forces in France and Russia, as she knows thai any day there may be a heavy offensive taken on both fronts. All she can do is to send a few divisions to maintain her £aoe before Tnrkey and Bulgaria; but she has many officers and much ammunition. Those she must send to the Balkans and to Turkey, both for the purpose of protecting her interests in the Middle East and also to maintain the open door to spread the war further afield with the hope of embarrassing Britain. The Turks and Bulgarians will, however, find that the greatest sacrifices will fall upon their shoulders, and that they will gain nothing but lose much for keeping bad company, or, rather, worse company than their own. THE RUSSIANS EST GALICIA. In Galicia the Russians, aooording to Austrian information, have been reinforced, and havo renewed the offensive north of Bukowiria. There is an admission that the Russians penetrated the Austrian trenches, from which the Austrians claim to have afterwards driven out the attackers. Such an admission from the Austrians implies that the Russians have been highly successful. It is dependable that, if the Russians were rainforced and they gained the enemy's trenches, they would not only hold them, but still further force the fighting. That is General Ivanoff's method. He aims at getting the enemy on the run, and, if he has the numbers. he will sacrifice men to gam his object, and thus throw in his cavalry to produce "a rout. One of the reasons that the Austrians are fighting so determinedly is that they fear that the Russian Cossacks may get behind their line. Another reason is that both the Germans and Austrians know that it is the last stand they will ever bo able to make in Galicia, and that once the Russians reconquer Galicia there will bo no seoond drive from the Donajic to the Strypa. There Germans also will be watching this struggle with anxious minds; they are assisting and directing, but they dare not weaken their armies in the north, for they know that the force of General Russki are simply waiting for the signs of any movement of that sort to take advantage of it THE MIDDLE EAST. According to reports from Petrograd, the campaign in the Middle East is developing very favourably for the Russians. For the first time since the Russo-Turkish war in 1878, the thunder of the Russian guns is again heard by the Turkish garrison in the outlying forts of Erzeroum. That town is the capital of tho large and important province of the same name, and is an important strategical centre on a high plateau, from whioh roads lead to the centre of Asia Minor. Erzeroum is strongly fortified, but the forts are old. It is certain, however, that, in view of the Russian offensive, German officers have added modern guns to tho defences and improved tho forts. Still, it is questionable whether the Turks will throw into the town a large body of men to be locked up, thereby reducing the effective strength of their forces in Armenia. The Russians are using Arkava (on tho coast) and Arivin (near to the coast) as a pivot, and swinging round their centre and left flank in order to come into lino with tho British in Mesopotamia. They havo reached Vastan (south of Lake Yan) and Miandoab (aboat 25 miles south-east of Lake Urumiah). Further to the south-east, in Persia, tho extreme Russian loft is within 150 miles of General Kimball's forces, which are moving up the north side of the Tigris. If General Townshend can hold out till relieved, there will be a joint advance of the Russians and British upon Bagdad. The Germans are anxious to prevent this junction, and havo pushed tho Turks into Kcrmandshah, in Persia. They are also making great preparations at Constantinople, and have commandeered or oollected 3000 motor cars to carry them over tho desert country between tho Cicilian Gates and Bagdad. The deluded Turks now see that Germany is more ooncerned with defending her interests and concessions in Asia Minor than with attacking Egypt for the purpose of restoring that lost province to tho Sultan. The Germans know perfectly well that the conquest of Egypt is an impossibility, and never intended to make a serious invasion of that country.