NOTES ON THE CABLES.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 16593, 17 January 1916, Page 6

NOTES ON THE CABLES.

Br Shrapnel.

REASONS! FOR RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE. An official mcesago from Petrograd volunteers tlio information that the Russian offen- I si ve is suspended for the present, and that i its purpose was to draw off troops from 1 the Balkans and the western front. Such a i message passed by the censor may not, however, give the true reasons for the initiation of the attack and its consequent subsidence. There -were, it is true, attacks by the Germans in the Champagne, the Argonno, and in Upper Alsace. These attacks were made with considerable forces, and it looked as though tiie Germans, wero beginning a great offensive against the French. The power required for suoh an initiative long ago departed from the hands of the Germans. The strength of the Germans began to fail them after the battle of Ypres, and the great Russian drive exhausted them. The failure of the German strategists and their great executive generals to destroy the Russian armies and to reach their intended positional objectives, Riga, Dvinsk, and Kieff, compels the enemy to hold in Russia lines that have immobilised a great part of the crumbling military machine. To theso conditions must be added the rapid recovery of the Russian munitions supply. The point then is: Was the Russian attack made to assist the Allies in the west and in the Balkans, or was it made by the Russians to let the Germans, in the first place, and the Balkan States in the second, see that Russia's striking power was still groat? In view of the fact that just now it is part of General Joffre's plan to provoke the Germans on the west front to attack, it cannot be aooepted that the offensive of the Russians was made in order to draw off Gorman forces from the west front. Balkan affairs, political and military, were in their most critioal stage when the Russian attack was made and, therefore, it must be concluded that the Russian attack had something to do with the outbreak in the Balkans. As far as the military situation on the Russian front is concerned, if the Russians had been asked to relieve tho west front, it would have drawn more Germans from that quarter. The strategical position of the Russians would have been improved if they had made their great attack on the Dwina and Niemen fronts. Such being so, the Russians having the knowledge that German and Austrian forces were being concentrated at Rustchuk, and other Austrian forces wero being moved into Bulgaria for the purpose of overawing Rumania and attacking the Anglo-French as well as assisting the Bulgars and Turks to prevent a Russian landing on tho Bulgarian coast must have made the attack to relieve the position in the Balkans. Reports from Russia claimed that the Russians were advancing at the rate of two miles a day along the whole of the southern frontier, but with the exception of the capture of Tschartorysk, and a lodgment on the left bank of the Styr at other places, together with a small advance in Bukowina, there is nothing else definitely marking a general advance. In to-day's cables the Times correspondent at Petrograd gives a picture of the Russian attacks, and describes the elaborate and comfortable arrangements that the Austro-Germans had made in their trenches where they had intended to settle down for the winter. The enumeration of the luxurious furnishings of the quarters of the officers and soldiers may be taken as circumstantial evidence that the enemy's lines in Galicia were occupied; but any correspondent, knowing the habits of tho German and Austrian officers, could have drawn that picture without leaving Petrograd. Tho first part of the correspondent's tale is apparently not told by the Russians, who are said to have reached the enemy's trenches, but by prisoners taken, who would of course, in many cases, colour their »tory to tickle the ears of their captors. Indeed, to such an extent have the Germans made a study of slimness that all soldiers have been ordered, when taken prisoners, to tell such tales in order to make their captors think that they aro doing better work than is really the case, and so prevent an increase of effort, or an alteration of tactics that might mako matters worse for tho Germans. * What the public would like to be certain about is whether the Russians of their own volition stopped the offensive, or whether - the enemy assisted them to make up their minds, and, if the losses of the enemy were from 70,000 up to 100,000, what were the losses of the Russians? Tho Austrian communiques are silent about Tteohartorysk, but claim to have repulsed the Russians at all other points. To-day there is again a reference to Toporutz, where the Austrians claim to have repulsed the Russians fivo times, with heavy losses. Toporutz is dose to the Bessarabian border, so either the Austrians have sent a belated report or the Russians have not obtained much success in Bukowina. THE KAISFR'S ILLNESS. Accounts of the Kaiser's illness are not being giveD out in official bulletins. What is heard outside the Imperial Palace trickles through neutral sources. But news travels quickly, especially such news as refers to those in the placcs of the mighty. The senousness of the Kaiser's case can bo road from the dispositions that are being made and the accumulation of details that are being gathered. Two years ago, his throat was operated 1 upon for some growth that was supposed to bo of a malignant nature. It was oven said then that an artificial voice-box had been substituted for a diseased larynx. Recent, accounts seem to show that such a severe operation was not performed, and that, though some growth was excised, the roots of the disease were not completely removed. The disease is hereditary. His father died of the same trouble. Tho Kaiser repeatedly promised that he would read the opening speech of the Prussian Diet. That he was unable to do so suggests that his condition is Berious. His nature is a determined one, and tho oriticai state of Imperial affairs and his own inclinations to speak whenever a great sion offers itself, would have brought him ■ into the public view if his illness were not dangerous. A Council of Regency is being formed with the Crown Prince as president, and notables are being summoned to Berlin. Tho Queen of Greece has boon sent for. Probably the Kaiser, as he is reported to have summoned her, intends to exact a promise from her that she well i exercise all her nihility in preventing Greece ' from taking with the Allies. That 1 and the fact that optimistic official reports are not being issued point to the chanco that the Kaiser's oondition is precarious. MONTENEGRO. The Austrians say that Cettinje (Tssetinye) has fallen, a grandiose way of stating that they have marched into an" abandoned capital. More serious is the message that Austria has proposed an armistice, and is now in negotiation for a separate peace. No one can blame King Nicholas if he concludes terms with Austria. An impartial judge would say that inasmuch as tho Allies had failed to rccognise the seriousness of the Serbian and Montenegrin positions, if the Austrians obtain serviceable conditions or peace from the Montenegrins, the Allies, and especially Italy, will be served right Montenegro is short of guns, munitions, men. and food, and in any case agaanst the overwhelming forces of Austria attacking her on three sides, it would be impossible for the brave inhabitants to defend their • country. For over 400 years these sturdy j dwellers in the Black Mountains have maintained their independence against- the Turk, ' and now it is questionable whether they 1 will be able to retain their independence ; longer.