NOTES ON THE CABLES.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 16537, 10 November 1915, Page 6

NOTES ON THE CABLES.

Br Shbapnel. THE OUTLOOK FOR SERBIA. With the fall of Nish and the capture of Krushevatz, about 35 miles north-east of Nish, it may bo said that the Bulgarians and tho Austro-Germans have opened tho road to Constantinople. The Serbians have fought gallantly, but the numbers against them have been too great. After fighting in two great wars and repelling a powerful Austrian invasion in tho present war, Serbia might have been excused if sho had succumbed to tho German demands, and allowed an open road through her territory to Bulgaria and Turkey. It is said she was offered attractive terms, and to her credit, but also to her undoing, she refused them. With her forces depleted by war and disease, which luckily was stamped out by tho humane and heroic service of helpers from America, Britain, and France, she has endeavoured to make a stand against cruel and relentless foes attacking her on all fronts but one. She has also been betrayed by traitors from within. The Macedonian levies deserted the gallant defenders of Nish and wont over to tho enemy, thus throwing the Serbian lines. into confusion.

The Serbian forces in the Morava Valley, between Nish and the junction of the Western Morava, will now bo in jeopardy. The most they can bo expected to do is to destroy the railway between those two points and retire to the heights between the Toplitza and the Western Morava. The Serbian armies in the Morava are now facing two ways, and are fighting back to back. They cannot be expected to fight more than rearguard actions, as they will undoubtedly do until their forces aro driven close to each other. After that they will retire westward into tho Jastrebatz and Zclin mountains, where they should bo able to give a good account of themselves unless their retreat is imperilled by the Austrians advancing from Uvatz towards Novi Bazar,, If it is true that the Austriansare massing large forces in Herzegovina, then the outlook for Serbia is hopeless, unless tho Italians hasten to her assistance and that of Montenegro.

Tho purpose of the Austrians is the result of pre-war determinations. When the Balkan Le-igue began its united efforts against Turkey, the Sanjak (military province) of Novi Bazar was Turkish territory, and it should be recalled that tho Aftstrian Government forbade Serbia to occupy tho Sanjak. The province formed a long narrow Turkish enclave between Old Serbia and Montenegro, and its northwest end strikes the borders of the stolen province of Bosnia. From Serajevo, the capital of Bosnia, the Austrians had built a railway to Uvatz, on the border. This railway the Austrians intended pushing down the Novi Bazar province to Mitrovitza, where it would link up with the Mitrovitza-Uskub-Salonika railway. Tho Austrian objective was Salonika, and the occupation of Albania and Macedonia. A successful end to such designs would have given Austria the commanding positions on the Adriatic, and a powerful strategical and important commercial outlet to the iEgean at Salonika. Behind all these plans was the pan-Ger-man conspiracy at Berlin. The success of ■the Balkan States in the war against Turkey completely upset the Austro-Gorman schemes for controlling the JEge&n Sea, and, from there, the Eastern Mediterranean. The result was that Germany, baulked in her ambitions, began to hasten the preparations for the great war for which tho Kaiser had been steadily preparing ever since ho ascended the throne. The murder of the Archduke and his wife at Serajevo -was not the cause of this great war. It was to the Kaiser and his satellites, however, a favourable incident for -finding a "casus belli," and that gentle lover and sustainer of the peace of Europe made it a "causa belli." So as not to seem the arch-devil of decent that he is, he made it appear that he was on a pleasure cruise in the Norwegian Fiords when war broke out.

The complete subjugation of Serbia is plainly intended to secure that that gallant fighting people 6hall cease to exist ae an independent nation. For this purpose, and the pre-war reasons, Austria is taking advantage of the present plight of Serbia to carry out her original designs regarding Novi Bazar and the Vardar Valley. It must therefore be assumed that the accumulation of strong Austrian forces, of at least 120,000 men, in Herzegovina will be going on rapidly, and will be a purely Austrian campaign. In this campaign, if the Austrians are not diverted by the Italians, and if the Allies do not quickly obtain some substantial successes, the end of the Serbian nation is only a question of time. The Auetro-Ger-man operations in the north have had for their primary ends the opening of a road through Serbia to Bulgaria.. When that :s secured the Germans will, if not compelled otherwise by the Allied forces, leave she finishing of the Serbians to the Austrians and Bulgarians.

The Austrians have also other reaeons for making a success of this campaign. Montenegro has become troublesome. That ie the least of her concerns. Austria is out to anticipate the Italians in respect of their ambitions, part of which is to be the pafamount power in Albania. The chief ports of Albania, it is to be noted, have Italiansounding names. They are: Aleseio, Durazzo, Avlona, and Santi Quaranta. These ports once belonged to the powerful Venetian Republic, the power and influence of which was destroyed by the discovery of the sea route to India. The Italians have therefore some shadow of a right to these ports, apart from the fact that, if they were in the hands of Austria, they would contribute to the domination of the Adriatic by that Power. If Italy wishes to control the Adriatic, ehe would better her chances to conserve her interests by quickly rushing considerable forces to Montenegro and Serbia.

GREECE IN THE COILS OF THE GERMAN SERPENT.

There can be little doubt that German officers and German secret service and political agents are- ewarming into Greece to swell the numbers that have been there for some time. Many influential political agents form part of the entourage of the Queen of the Hellenes. All the chief agents, political and otherwise, have at their disposal the great funds of the German secret service bureau. The cables this morning furnish the information that 11 out of 16 of the chief /papers of Greece have been brought into lino by German court influence and German gold. It is also asserted that the Germans are securing the favour of the Grecian army. If so, it means that the Allies had better be prepared for a bold stroke on the part of the King and officers of the Greek army. Such an act would bo quite feasible, for the King of Greece is regarded by the army to be one of the finest military strategists in the world, and during and after the Balkan war he wae the idol of his army and his people. The opinion that the Central Powers, are bound to be defeated is said to be general amongst the Greek officers, and especially amongst the general staff. That opinion, of course, is born of German influence in high places, and has been carefully encouraged and nourished from tainted sources.

It is reported that France is lending Greece £1.200,000, and is sending to Athens large supplies of flour. That bears the appearance of a set off against German influence ; but its acceptance may bo a blind to lull the Allies into a sense of false security. It will be necessary for the Allies to be continually on the watch for a surprise, in case the loan of Salonika takes the form of the Wooden Horse of Troy.

A GREAT TASK IN THE BALKANS., The Balkans may be termed, as far as Britain and Russia are concerned, " Tho Region of Lost Opportunities." Looked at whichever way one likes, it nxast bo admitted that, owing to tho lack of wide enterprise on the part of our statesmen, and

owing to their inability to grasp salient points, Germany has scored heavily in the Balkans. The fact of the matter is that, with a small body of troops—9o,ooo, it is reported,—she has developed for Britain, France, and Russia the necessity of diverting a large section of the allied forces to distant bases, and confused for the time being the minds of the various general stiiffs. Germany has removed from her own borders the struggle to Bulgaria and Sorbin, and thus saved herself from pressure at more vital points nearer home. Sho has drawn Bulgaria and Turkey into Tier struggles, and the Gorman cause is now about to be fought out in the plains and mountains of Bulgaria or Turkey. She has thus increased the expenditure of the Allies by several hundred millions, and also increased her fighting , forces to the tune of at least a million men with the potential of another million in sight if sho can arm them. These great potentialities can be cut off by rapid action, but Britain and Franco arc far away, and Russia is slow, while the Austro-Gcrmans have the great advantage of the inside lines of communications-. It is small wonder that General Joffro spoke his mind in London and that Lord Kitchener finds that his services arc required in the East. A wide grasp of the possibilities in those parts would have placed the Allies in a favourable strategical position. The position can bo retrieved, but it will cost time and money. It is tho task of Russia and Great Britain, and, who.i the position is retrieved, the end of the war is in sight. Until then it is not.