NOTES ON THE CABLES.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 16523, 25 October 1915, Page 6

NOTES ON THE CABLES.

By Shbapnel. BALKAN DEVELOPMENTS. The chicf item of interest in the cables this morning is the favourable turn which the diplomacy of the, Allies has secured in Rumania. Though the report is not officially confirmed, there .seems to be sttong reasons for the assumption that Rumania will declare war on Austria and Bulgaria if the Allies will send 400,000 troops 'to the assistance of Serbia. Colour is given to the report by the fact that Rumanian envoys have gone to Eetrograd. An explanation of this, step may be that the Rumanian capital is so infested with Germaii spies that the Government of Rumania, with a 'view of .preventing its arrangements with Russia from being discovered, prefers to ; make them in Petrograd. ' ' A relative of M. Bratiano, the' Rumanian Premier, .is credited with having given' information that is very satisfying. Ho says that Rumania has an army of 400,000 men almost ready, and that, if necessary, sue can put 1,100,003 men in the field. ,Rumiinia is, however, cut off from the world in like manner to Russia, and «lie would find it very difficult to keep an army of half a million in the field if she were attacked by strong fotces of the cneniy. She has, therefore, \V.'sely stipulated that if she comes in on the Entente side, the Allies must send a large force of men to Balkans. , The Rumanians have, gauged the situation well. Knowing the strength of Bulgaria and Turkey,. they reckon that '400,000 allied troops; with thoSfe'of' Serbia and " Rumania, will be sufficient to hold up the Austro-Germans, and bring, the Bulgarians to their knees. The Bulgarians must be in -danger of running short of, ammunition, as, tliere can be littl'j doubt that they have been supplying the Turks with munitions of war in anticipation of being able to have their own stocks renewed and increased by the Austro-Gcrmans as soon as they had finished with Serbia. The sudden landing of the Allies at Salonika has upset, the plans of both the Germans and the Bulgarians. The Bulgarians intended to attack the Serbians on their flanks and rear, and they concluded that their half-mobilised artay was sufficient for the purpose, since the Central Powers were attacking Serbia in the north with forces at least twice as great as the Serbians could i»ut in the field. Thri Allies have landed arid sent into . the) interior of Serbia between 40,000 and' 50,000 troops. -It-has been reported that 100,000 have been landed or are being landed.. There are some grounds for the belief that large forces were at hand, the Entente Powers had long ago certain information about the centralisaCfcn of troops in the south of Austria. Previous to that, it was their intention to reinforce the Dardanelles command largely, and in view of the operations that were threatened against Serbia, the number of troops ori the road to the yEgean Sea . was considerably increased. That the Allies landed troops, so suddenly at Salonika, will havo been not only a shock to the Bulgarians, but a surprise to the world, the King of Greece included. , i

If Rumania enters the field and :there is rapid action on the part of the Allies, Bulgaria is doomed to trouble. Her people are not wholly favourable to the war, and it is conceivable that the sight of Turkish troops on their territory will excite disgust among both the population and a largo body of the troops, who are not whole-heajrtcdly with "the Bulgarian Government in its dubious policy. It is known that the Opposition party in the Bulgarian Parliament was bitterly opposed to She courso King Ferdinand was taking, and that the people in different parts of the nation opposed the mobilisation. To-day we are informed that many Bulgarian officers are disaffected and ■ have been superseded. The growing strength of the Allies at Salonika will, in all probability, increase the discontent, and those Bulgarians who have disagreed with the policy of their King may have their hands sufficiently strengthened to affect the trend of events in such a way that Ferdinand may have to take refuge on his Austrian estates. ' His introduction of German officers and his distribution of them through the army have, no doubt, been prompted by Germany. The Gorman officers will serve to nip in the bud any signs of rebellion by an application of " rightfulness." AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RUSSIA. Should Rumnni.i declare war immediately Russia will have a great difficulty removed. With Rumania severely neutral she would

have had to land troops, 111 face of strong opposition, on the Bulgarian shores of- tho Black Sea-, or send thorn into Serbia'by, the long and tedious route of the Danube. Aa soon as Rumania definitely deolnres on tho side of the Entente Powers, Russia will, bo able t'j land troops at Constnnza and rail ' them to Giurgevo, opposite Rustchuk, or march them down to the Bulgarian border near Varna, capture that town and use it as a base for landing more troops for tho purpose of crushing the Bulgarians and marching upon Constantinople. An immediate march upon Varna, is necessary to stop the fitting-up of submarine parts which, it ,is said, have been sent to that . port. With sufficient Russian forces at Varna and the- Rustchuk passage forced,, the road •to Lulu Biirgus should be open and a second advantageous port seized. The seiKiiro of Lulu Burgus would give the Russians a better base for ooerating against both tho Bulgarians and Austro-Gcrnians, if tho latter should break through Serbia. It is to be hoped the Serbians and their Western Allies will, prevent the Austro-Germana breaking through, or will hold them up until the Russians have efTected- an entrance into Bulgaria from the Dobrudscha.' Whatever Rumania intends to do should be done quickly.- There is not a moment ; to loss on the part either- of Rumania or Russia.' Quickness and surpriso are what is wanted to" bring about a revolution in ' l Bulgaria before the German officers and Germanophilo Bulgarian officers arc able to fix the Bulgarian army and the people rigidly in their clutches and arrange their control and. their strategy. Greece would also be impressed by such a gathering of Allied forces. , ■ . ,

SERBIA ATTACKED ON TWO FRONTS.. The news from Serbia is ,not satisfactory if the German claims arc trustworthy. Victories are claimcd for General von Koevcss in the west, and for General von Galliwita at Savanovac, wherever that plaoo is—it may be Voilainic, about : 35 miles up th< Morava'River. If so, tho Germans have' made a considerable advance from Belgrade and Semendria. Tho same says that, the Bulgarian general Bojadieff, has reached Kniashevatz. That, however, is no great accomplishment, for tho town is just a few miles from'the border. It is also reported from Salon.ka that the Bulgarians have reached Pirot, and are marching in the direction of Nish. The attack on Kniashevatz and that at Pirot, oh the Sofia-Nish railway, are attempts to converge upon Nish. It is further reported that a big battle;>was fought at Velles, on the Sal-onika-Uskub railway, arid that, the town has been captured. : The other day we beard of,a battle at .Viarja, in whichthe Serbs were successful. We also heard of an advance upon Kumanovo. The Bulgarians are evidently throwing, a great• part of their strength against the whole Serbian east front, and are neglccting all other consideration's. Their work along this front shows that German ofliccrs are directing the Bulgarian army, : and that it is their intention"- to cut off the assistance of the Allies. The purpose is to. crush tho Serbs between the Bulgarians and AustroGermans before the Allies can land sufficient forces and organise them sufficiently to take: the field in strength adequate to create 9 diversion, of any importance. Tho occupation of Veles is a serious matter, as the railway , from Salonika is now cut, and . the forces of the, Allies north of Veles are isolated from the forccs at Gradetz. • The .Bulgarians,' under German instruction, will immediately fortify. Veles for the purpose of preventing further junction of Allied, troops with. the Serbians.