THE PROGRESS OF OTAGO.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 13651, 21 July 1906, Page 6

THE PROGRESS OF OTAGO.

MOKE OPINIONS CONCERNING THE CENSUS. Many and varied are the viewa held by business men and others regarding the recent census returns. If Otago is not moving ahead as fast as other places, it may bo that the suggestions that are now being made for its benefit will lead to a steady " forging ahead " before tho next census is taken. These, are some more of the views expressed by citizens on the matter: — Mr ,1. A. Millar, M.H.R.: The figures were somewhat of a surpriso to me when I eiiw tlio great increase of population in the other three centres. Whether this has been caused by careless taking of the census or not it is hard to say, but it seems almost impossible that Duncdin has barely maintained its natural increase of population. Of course, there is one thing we do know: that in the last two years a large number of men have been transferred froni the south to work on the North Island Trunk line and also on tho Midland line. To what extent their families have followed them one cannot say, but, judging by tho census Tcturns, they must all have'left. The industries here, have also been carrying nn increased number of employees in many cases. The building trade, we know, has been remarkably brisk, as is evidenced by tho largo number of permits which have been giantcd. I believe that Dunedin has granted more building pormita than any city in the colony during the period, with the exception of Wellington. There is this peculiarity too: the first returns issued showed an increase of over 800 each in the boroughs of St. Kilda, North-East Valley, and Koslyn, and the Duncdin increase, according to those returns, totted np to close on 5000. Why is it that the final returns now reduce this by 2000? It seems strange, when three boroughs show such an increase— and one knows the increaso of population that has been going on in tbo other boroughs as well.—that all the remaining boroughs, including the city should only have an increaeo of 700. I think there may have been a mistake made in the final compilation of the figures.

Mr Donald Borrio, who lias been a member of the Wflitaki County Council for over 20 years, speaks of the growth of the northern part of the Otago province: Oamaru town has advanced slightly in population in the last five years, and the district round about has decidedly gone ahead, which is principally accounted for by the nutting up of the large estates which the Government has taken over and settled in small holdings. The Government has taken more large holdings in the Waitaki County than in any other district of the same area in the colony. In 1901 tlicro was a population of 9086 in the Waitaki County (excluding Oamaru), and' in 1906 this bad increased to' 9616.

A gentleman who knows the colony from ono end to tho other 6ays: As a resident in Auckland from 1870 to 1904, and mnce then in _ Dunedin, you ask'mo if I can account in any way for tho great disparity of increase of population in the two cities since last census. I think I can point to several considerations which have helped, and will help tho northern city as against Dunedin. First, there is its more genial climate; then its excellent harbour; its considerable and varied trade—timber, gold, kauri gum, wool, dairy produce, etc.; its local industries, which are important, and its trade with the Islands' must not be overlooked. Harbour dues are. reasonable, and efforts arc now being mado to 'increase the facilities for shipping. During the last few years a, good many large estates havo been brought into the market, cither by the owners themselves or by tho action of the Government, resulting in an increased' number of holdings. Then, Auckland is a pleasant place for folk who wish to retire from active work, and it is understood that there is quite a considerable number of these- desirables residing in the suburbs. Altogether, I should, say that Auckland has many advantages tending to draw a considerable population. I am quite awarethat Dunedin has many good points: a well. bunt city, provided with most modern requirements. But it must be admitted that the climate is a trifle uncertain, not to say bracing. Part of its trade has of late years, I understand, been somewhat diverted. Its harbour and facilities for shipping arc not quite equal to those of Auckland. Slimming up, I should say that the advantage is with the northern city and that Dunedin will have to hustle if sho wishes to keep iii the race. Mr W. 1\ Edmoud: In reply to your inquiry as to my opinion why the population of Dunedin has not increased correspondingly with that of other leading provincial towns, I have not had time to thoroughly consider the reason; but my opinion, formed in passing, is that other eadmg centres have been largely assisted by recent settlements in thoir immediate vicinity, whereas the settlements and townships contiguous to Dunedin are in many cases as old-established as tho centre—viz Dunedin itself,-and consequently there is smaller opportunity .for expansion hero than offers in other centres. Moreover, the geographical features in regard to coastline" do not deprive other centres from deriving that advantage,- which in our ease is distributed amongst several ports. Mr William Barron was interviewed j Reporter: To what, Mr Barron, do you attribute the comparatively slow growth of ! tho population of Otago in the last five years? Mr Barron: General ignorance of | our exceptional advantages as a place for j residence and business. But you should say I nothing about it; it is a bad thing to be I overcrowded.

Mr A. Loe Smith: The subject that you propose for discussion is one of much intereat, and, moreover, one that must necessarily excite the attention of those whose interests are centred in the South Island. Tho disparity of the figuree that are disclosed by tho recent census are depressing revealing aa they do tho fact that the relative decrease of population here has been going on wit.li alarming acceleration during the recent quinquennial poriod. At the same I think that the solution of the question is not so difficult if a litllo more than a cursory consideration of the subject is given to it. We may .say that it is lack of private enterprise, of publio spirit, or even condescend to blnmo the deficiencies of our harbour, for the shortcoming of Otago and particularly that of Dunedin; but in my_view lihere are causes that, lie deeper in their foundations than do tho abovn offhand . explanations. The matter must be regarded from the standpoint of the influence o( physical laws. Climate, soil, and other natural conditions play a strong hand iti the determination of the movements of mankind. It is true that in the settlement of a now country thcio generally occurs a happy-go-lucky distribution of popidation, principally by reason of the circumstances of those who emigrate thereto forbidding much choice' of selection, so long as employinent of one kind or another can be obtained; but a.s soon as wealth and civilisalion—that often prostituted word—attain such proportions as will suggest en.se; comfort, and luxury, (hen a rearrangement of .settlement conditions is sure to set in. Each country is to bo regarded in this respect by contrasts of its own. England attracts population from Scotland and Ireland, just as the northern portion of this colony docs from the southern. The Olago climate is severe and uninviting in comparison with that_ of Auckland, and therein lies, in my opinion, the main foundation of the reason why the latter province is making such great headway. Moreover, (his law has bson assisted by a series of fortuitous circumstances, which in themselves have made for progress. Capital has found profitable and agreeable occupation in the north by reason of the discovery of gold mines requiring large investment of it in their development; also, in the case' of frozen meat, by the use of refrigerating processes, and tho recently-opened oilfields will no doubt further stimulate this movement. Again. Hie soil of the north is as a rule much more amenable to case in cultivation. Lastly, retirement from active pursuits finds thnl the sun and tho beauties of scenery afford much more congenial surroundings in those latitudes than are available hero, These few observations are but a skeleton outline of a leading principle, whose douiinatmig influence leads mo to think that there is little probability of any abatement taking place in the great disparity now existing between tho two islands of the colony.

Mr P. Harr, secretary of the Bunedin Chamber of Commerce: While not doubting the correctness of Ihe figures shown in the census returns, I do not think thai, the comparisons between the different, cities are fair. In both Auckland ami Chrislcliulch suburban road districts nol municipalised ore included, adding 24,544 lo the-fuimor »;id 13.918 to. the latter. If these outlying districts are omitted, the correct figures for comparison are shown—viz.. Wellington 63,844. Auckland 57,615, Duliedin 56.024, and G'hristehuieb 54,944. Of course, if usaet.lv the same areas were included in the 1901 census, the comparisons as to increase are fair; if hot, they are worthless. In any ca.se, however, it seems to me that Creator Auckland or Greater Diuiedin should only include the cities and immediately adjoining boroughs. After all, however, this does not affect, the midoulrted

Tuct that the northern cities are increasing more rapidly than our own, and tlmt for five yeara Dunedin has shown little beyond

tile natural increase. We cannot Flint our eyes to the climatic and olhcr advantages of the northern cities and provinces. People who retire and wish to settle down for their closing years naturally seek tbo warmer climate of Auckland; men who look, for tlio centre of the business life of tbo colony nro led to Wellington, on account of its geographical position and politicaJ importance. Chrislehurch has the advantage of the agricultural country all round its doors, while in Duncdin wo are surrounded with a belt of hillv country. Then, not only do we, in comparison, lack these natural advantages, but wo have the positive disadvantage of our expensive harbour and consequent, heavy dues. These things being so, the question is, How can wo make the most of the advantages wo do possess? It in useless to point, as we may well do with pride, to the splendid record of progress in the past, and to the fact that Otago firms and men have <lone much to make the northern cities. What should ho done now to retain, if not regain, our position? I can only suggest two things: First, I am convinced that tihe city and surrounding counties should submit to a harbour rate in order to make Duncdin, if not an absolutely freo port, as nearly so as possible. It will not come in this generation nor the next by any other method, and the rato required to supply the board's requirements, if spread over an area from Palnicrston to HaJclutha and back to Ma-niototo and Vincent Counties, would bo small; I have not time to work it out at the moment. The proposal will raise a host of objectors, but it must bo evident that farmers, merchants, and tbo whole body of ratepayers would benefit in one pocket to a much greater extent than they would lose in tbo other if .the district were rated. Second. Otago people- must hand together to see .that she gets her fair share of Government expenditure, and for everything that affects her interests. If they had done so the present deplorable -condition of affairs as regards the Harbour Board's endowments and the approaches to tlio foreshore would 'never have cojne about. If so, the Otago League, which is capable of doing real good work, would not bo the half-hearted organisation it is. If our people would only waken up to their own interests, and insist upon the railway and harbour difficulty being " settled right," the, reasonable advance of our uncompleted provincial railway lines, and a fair proportion of expenditure as compared with other provinces, the advantage that others have would not prevent our steady progress, '•'ilh surely all Dunedin natives I don't like tho idea of "our own romantic city" taking a third or second place, and with a renewal of the enterprise and energy of our pilgrim fathers it need not do so.

The following views were expressed to our representative by a leading merchant of the city:—"My opinion is that the disparity is not so great as the gross figure seems to indicate. The North Island is being opened up, settlement is going on. and. as a natural coftsequence, its chief towns are growing. Auckland attract* numbers of people iis a desirable place of residence, while Wellington is the scat oil Government, and the central point of distribution in the colony. In Christelmrch, the rural population, contiguous to the town proper, is fairly dense, and appears to be included in it. The conditions here are entirely different. There can be no doubt that capital is not being invested industrially, owing to the labour conditions prevalent, and probably that is being felt more in Dunedin than elsewhere. When the development of our interior is pushed a little further on, and the traffic that should pass through Dunedin finds legitimate outlet, I anticipate solid progress will be made, and that there is no cause for uneasiness. If the consideration of this matter should lead to a greater unanimity of action in our community it will have done good."

A well-know business man, well qualified to speak, gives his opinions concerning the census returns as follows:—"Tho position occupied by Dunedin in tho census return of 1906, as compared with the other chief centres of tho colony, makes disappointing reading, and offers food for reflection. Having recently returned from a visit to Auckland, and being struck with the greater life and better prospects prevailing in the northern cities, I have frequently, since my return and previous lo tho publishing of the census returns, pondered in my mind the reasons for Duncdin's comparative stagnation. That Dunedin. is lagging behind her rivals is manifest to the most casual observer, and the reason in my oninion is not far-to seek. Dunedin is n well-built city, and in this respect far ahead of either Ohristchurch. Wellington, or Auckland, all of which are. and will require to go on. spending large sums of money in replacing old landmarks in the shape of, wooden and, in some instances, corrugated iron buildings. Again, while all the good land available in Otago is taken up, and much of it fairly closely settled, there are being opened up in Auckland and Wellington thousands of acres of bush and Native land; in the former, some of tho -finest' sheep' country in tho colony. The mineral resources of Otago are being worked to as great an extent as circumstances warrant, while Auckland's revenuo from this source is increasing by leaps and bounds, over £140,000 having been circulated in dividends for the month of June alone, whilo Wellington's shipping trade, already large, must go on increasing owing to her geographical position. The only direction in which Dunedin can reasonably hope to expand is in connection with her manufactures. How, then, do these 6tand, and what are the -prospects of their expansion? I am no pessimist. I know the commercial men of Dunedin are as keen, enterprising, and progressive .as any in tl» colony, and not afraid to venture if there is any hopo at all. Having said this, I must also admit that tho prospects of any immediate increase in our manufactures seems to me to be impossible. In the first place, Dunedin led the way, and for many years was the manufacturing town of Now Zealand; but during the last decade tho northern towns have made, and are still making, every effort to wrest from her tho pride of place; so muoh so that it ia as muoh as she oan do to hold licr own, let alone forge ahead. Bo it also remembered that, in tho Auckland province especially, conditions of work arc easier and wages muoh lower, the Arbitration Court notwithstanding. Then, again, and to coino to the orux of the wliole matter: there ia no inducement for manufacturers to either increaso tho capacity of their plants or siart now industries. With tho present Labour laws things are bad enough; but when manufacturers and capitalists read the further demands of Labour and tJio extreme Socialism of tho trades unions fear of the future takes possession of their very souls, an<l investment is sought in municipal lwnds, mortgages, and debentures rather than in the development of our industries and the natural resources of the colony. Nor will things improve until a stable Go. vernmeivt is set up in which capitalists will have confidence. Not -until suoh times aa men of means are assured that their businesses will ■ be free from the Socialistic experiments of the present-day legislation, will they increase the risks they already run. Dunedin's only opportunity of advancement depends upon an increase of her manufactures. Tinder present conditions I have shown that they cannot advance. an<? the population of Dunedin. in my opinion, will, for somo time at least, remain stationary. I notice one of your correspondents makes the remark "I would like to knotf wliat is going io keep it TDuncdin] back?" I think it is n nity ho did not state what, in his opinion, is going to forge it ahead-