THE OTAGO DAILY TIMES FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 17, 1905. IMPERIAL POLITICS.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 13210, 17 February 1905, Page 4

THE OTAGO DAILY TIMES FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 17, 1905. IMPERIAL POLITICS.

Considerable interest attaches to the reassembling of the Imperial Parliament, which took place on Tuesday last. The first Parliament of King Edward VII is now on tho threshold of its fifth year, and it has been generally assumed that i'L Balfour will go to the country this year. The announcement that Mr Herbert Gladstone, tho senior Opposition Whip, is urging the Liberal agents immediately to complete their preparations for a general election indicates that a determined effort is to be made to defeat the Balfour Administration during the session. To this end we are informed that the Opposition, will propose three amendments lo the Addreis-in-Roply, dealing successively with the fiscal policy, army reform, and excessive naval and military expenditure, and that the Irish Nationalists, fearing the effect

of the passage, of a Redistribution Bill, of which the introduction is foreshadowed in the King's Speech, will vote with the Opposition. The first of these amendments, demanding that the fiscal issue be submitted to . the people without delay, has already been moved by Mr Asquibh. It is this 'condition, of affairs which lends great significance to the manifesto issued by Earl Spencer, which—despite the assertions of Mr Asquibh and Mr Gladstone that it is merely a private pronouncement—is regarded in mau.y quarters as the proclamation of a. policy by the man who, in the evelit of the Liberal party taking office, may possibly be tho Prime Minister) and will almost certainly be the Leader of the Government in the House of Lords. It is within a few months of 10 years since the last Liberal Administration held office, and, judging by the results of recent byeelections, the country is ready for a. change. There is just the chance, however, that Mr Balfour may defer disaster by the passage of the Redistribution Bill alluded to in the-Royal Speech. As affairs stand at present in tho United. Kingdom, of the nearly seven millions of electors 011 the toll two and arhalf millions return 370 of the 670 members in the House' of Commons, the remaining four millions and a-half having to be content with a representation of 300 members. In the readjustment the Liberal and Conservative gains and losses would just'about balance, bub the Irish members would be reduced by .30 out of 193: Mr Henry W. Lucy, an accepted authority on Imperial politics, inclines to tho opinion that • the immediate result of the introduction of a. Redistribution Bill would be the closing up of the Ministerial ranks at present riven by the fiscal controversy. He argues that the Ministerialists, "grateful to be delivered from the fiscal schism, will muster under Mr Balfour's banner, and will persistently vote down the Opposition. But it is by no meaiis certain that the Administration will survive the shock of the amendment upon the Address-iii-Reply dealing with the fiscal issue. It will be remembered that, during last session, while on ail questions of general policy Mr Balfour had a majority of four score, yet whenever the problem of fiscal reforin cropped up that majority was reduced to less than 50. The Government position lias nob been improved during tic recess, and tHe indifference of a considerable number of Ministerialists, who do not propose to seek reelection, may quite conceivably operate to produce a defeat for Mr Balfour or such a victory as would be tantamount to a. defeat. In that event, it is of importance to - consider whether the i Liberal party is prepared to. ac-ept j j the leadership of Efrl Spencer. >Tlic j

fact has been recalled that Mr Gladstone, when, in Maroli, 1894, lie tendered his resignation to Quesii Victoria, frankly admitted, in conversation with Mr John Morley, that he expected the Queen, to consult him on the subject of his successor, Her Majesty, however, acting solely oa her own. initiative, sent for Lord llosebery. Sad Mr Gladstone been consulted he would have advised the Queen to send for Earl Spencer. During the turbulent times in. Ireland of 1882-5 Earl Spencer served his country well, and his claim to the , Liberal Premiership is based upon long and faithful service. It does not appear, however, that the Liberal party ig.at present unanimous upon the matter, and without an accepted leader to whom all its members will accord a loyal support the Opposition will enter on the election campaign under the disadvantage of a severe handicap. Earl Spencer does not hesitate to declare that the topic of fiscal reform is the one question that dominates the situation, and that an appeal to the country alone Can satisfactorily solve the problem. In his opinion no conference such as Mr Balfour advocates can deal with the matter until first of all the country has given its pronouncement. On the other hand, Lord Selborne, First Lord of the Admiralty, in a recentspeech at Handsworth, seems to give proof .Of the assertion, that Mr Chamberlain has succeeded in capturing the Conservative party and its organisation. The main point made by him was that the time had come for a better organised Empire—betteV organised commercially and better organised in naval and military defence,—and that the Colonial Conference would act as a step in that direction. But Lord Selborne was particularly unhappy when lie quoted the pretence at preference made by the Seddoii Government as a si"n of the. affection felt by the people of. New Zealand for the Empire, atid of the desire of New Zealanders to show that England was not the "same in theii eyes as tt rest of the world." H this be a sample of the arguments by which Mr Chamberlain's fiscal policy is being supported in the Old Land, then it will scarcely stand the light of a Colonial Conference. V hcther, however, the general election in the United Kingdom takes place at once or whether by Mr Balfour's skilful strategy it is deferred until next year—and if the Redistribution Bill is passed the appeal to the constituencies can hardly bo made this year—political experts are agreed that two points, besides tho fiscal question, will affect its result. The first- is tho operation of the Convention, and the secon'd is the passive resistance agitation, for each of thdsa coiries right homo to the masses, and therefore influences a multitude of votes, The Sugar Convention is, rightly or wrongly, saddled with responsibility for tlie great increase in the price of stigar, resulting in the shrinkage of an important industry, the closing of manufactories, and a consequent accession to the ranks of the unemployed, to say nothing of a considerable increase in tlie®amount of the household grocery bills. ■ In regard to the education controversy, Mr Chamberlain is in soiue quarters credited wii.h starting "the tariff agitation partly in order to distract attention from the passive resistance movement. In this hei has succeeded to some extent, but the process of distraining upon thousands" of householders for unpaid rates has been steadily goi ny on; and the irritation produced by the forcible seizure and sale of tea and coffee services, candlesticks, and other portable property rankles in the breasts of the "passive resisters" in all parts of England, and this must tell in the matter of votes when polling day comes round. MaUy other questions—such, , for instance, as Chinese immigration—are also agitating the public mind, a.ud there are various reasons, therefore, • why the reassembling of the Imperial Parliament should synchronise with some stirring events in the political world; and why the development of affairs should be watched with unusual interest.