THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 11229, 27 September 1898, Page 6

THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION.

ON THE VERGE OF THE PRECIPICE. EXTRAORDINARY BEHAVIOUR OF BRITISH MINISTERS," (Fbom Oue Own Cobrespondent.) LONDON, August 12. Russia still, through M. Pavloff, persists in demanding that China shall refuse to allow any British capital to be expended on the Newchang ■ railway. Lord Salisbury still di- ■ rects Sir Claude Macdonald to assure China, that England will support her against s,r.y ■ aggression having for its object the defeat of British-claims. But Russia does not content lier3elf with threatening the Chinese Government. Her latest coup is attempting to obtain possession of a small territory on +ho Red Sea littoral, known as Razeita. Now Razeita Bay is so situated that it is considered to give a command of the entrance to the Red Sea almost equal to that held by England in respect of J?erim and Aden. Apparently the Emperor Menelik of Abyssinia claims a right to.cedo.Razeita to Russia if he choose, although, strictly speaking, it does not form part of his territory. '.With Razeita as a base, Russia would be ■able to exercise various unfriendly functions in the Red Sea if it pleased her to. do so, and the purport of recent Russian approaches to the Emperor Menelik now becomes clear. But this is not all. Razeita is just opposite the Yemen district of Arabia, where a vigorous rebellion against Turkish rule—or misrule— is just now proceeding, with, it is strongly : suspected, the connivance of the Sheriff of , Mecca. If the Yemen people continue to make head against the Turkish troops it is anticipated that Russia will again try on the '^confidence trick" with Turkey, and in the capacity of "best friend" offer to nut down the rebellion. Once there, Russia would know better than to leave. A protectorate and then ownership would be established, and Temon would become another Russian outstation. Yemen is just behind the British settlement and coaling station of Aden. ;With •Russia established in the rear of Aden wo should have a now land frontier to guard, and treachery always to guard against. So we don't want Russia to reach the Yemen and Mecca, via Razeita. . Meanwhile, luckily, Italy stands in the way with an allegation of prior claim or pre-emptive right. But this fresh fuss helps to show how übiquitous is Russian "progress," as her representatives term it, —"aggression," as we regard it. That Persian bother is not yet by any means done with. The-Russian Minister still persists in demanding that Persia shall not borrow from England, but shall, if she wants money, tako- it from her friend Russia, and take more than she wants, assigning to the Ikind lendor the control, of Persian revenues. Diplomacy is endeavouring, however, to arrange a modus vivendi. Only, unhappily; when British diplomacy is matched against Russian, the latter always wins! It is frankly admitted by a Russian writer that Russian diplomatic methods are insincere and untruthful. But the Russians contend that this is "all fair "as in love and war. Their opponent, they say, must look out for himself. It is their mission to deceive him if possible, and if he knows anything at all ho ought' to know that. If he is deceived, the more fool he. It was so with each step of Russia's progress in Asia. . There was always the first flimsy plea of restoring order; than * X protectorate; then annexation, with solemn, denials at each step that the next step, was contemplated. It is the same now in China. Russia's rule is to secure all she.can while persistently denying that she wants anything at. all. If her opponent be weak, Russia seizes by force what she coverts. If the opponent be strong and i shows his teeth, then Russia draws back for the present, and waits for the next opportunity! This is not only as clear as daylight' in ■■glancing over the history of the past, but is admitted with the utmost frankness by Russians themselves now in England to be the present and eternal policy of all Muscovite statosmori. England is Russia's great rival in progress and antagonist in policy. The only question is when and where and how will the absolute impasse be .reached, a point at which neither side can "back down" without dishonour ? - ■ Lord Salisbury has fixed that point at this question of the Newohang railway loan. But will he be as good as his word—as his " brave words"? That is what the whole world is wondering. And, if so, will he be able to convince Russia in time to prevent her taking the irrevocable step which would render a peaceful solution impossible.' That is the allimportant problem of the day. Most strange and unaccountable is the only answer that comes so far. All in one day tho following things happen: First, that omniscient correspondent of The Times at Pekin announces that the Chinese Government has given way to Russian pressure regarding the Newehang railway, and has left England out in tho cold. Also that, in spite of the British Minister's protest, China had sanctioned the Belgian loan for the PekingHankow railway, and, further,' that Belgium arid Franco had virtually gone in with Russia against England. No. 2 is that Lord Salisbury, Minister for Foreign Affairs, left England and went abroad on a holiday at this

great crisis. No. 3, the Under-secretary for • Foreign Affairs, Mr Curzon, resigned tliat office on his appointment as Viceroy of India, and it is not intended to fill up the vacancy at present. So the Foreign Office is left at this juncture without any head at all. Fourthly, Mr Balfour, on being cross-exam-ined in the Commons, admitted the statements of The Times correspondent are true, / but said that the Government would give the ' matter " serious consideration." And, fifthly, the prorogation of Parliament was announced ■for to-day! .■•.,-■ Now, was there, ever such an amazing mode bf dealing with perhaps the gravest' crisis .which has ever arisen in the,history of our Empire? 'What can it all mean? As to the •gravity of the case there can be no doubt •whatever, for the point has been reached at ■■iwhich the Chancellor of the Exchequer declared that England must resist " even at the cost of war." Russia recognises in the fullest degree the gravity of the situation. See, for' instance, what a leading newspaper' at , -St- Petersburg has to say with reference to differences between England and Russia regarding China. The Novoe Vremya puts it very plainly: "It is a fact that jf political eventualities should ever place the Russian Government in a position of acute antagonism ' towards the British Government, the results of such antagonism would first of all become evident near the Hindu Kush, and not in the Gulf of Peohili. The results of the cession ' by China to Russia of Port.Arthur and Talienwan will not show themselves for some timo to come. A considerable period must elapse before those two ports can serve the purpose which they are intended to serve by Russian foreign policy, of providing a permanent outlet on the Pacific Ocean. Quite otherwise is Russia's position on the Indian frontier, where everything has long been organisod and made ready for military action if eomo fresh and extreme access of ill-will on the part of Great Britain should drive Russia to such action." Now, a Russian paper dared not utter suoh a thing aa this without first ascertaining that it would be acceptable to the Government. The inference is obvious. If Russia has to 6ght it will be on a battlefield chosen and carefully prepared by herself, not at sea, where she is hopelessly over-matched, but on land, where she holds an enormous military preponderance. Russia has long been secretly tampering with the disaffected section of the Indian and Afghan populations, and'counts upon their assistance in case of war. Accord. ing to Russian designs, the Ameer of Afghanistan should suddenly trump up a grievance) and declare against. England and the disloyal natives in India should raise a rebellion. Meanwhile, Russia, although over-matched so far as regular sea fighting would go, has prepared a flotilla of fast cruisers, now dotted oil over the world, but ready to obey: the Czar's call at any time, and the idea is that with French assistance they would not only prey upon British maritime commerce, but would also make a dash for New Zealand, and endeavour to seize that colony as a permanent possession for a naval, and coaling station so as to secure the command of the Pacific. ■ '■ Further, a St. Petersburg despatch to the Soleil states that Russia has anticipated a possible war with England, in China ever since the appropriation of Kiao-Chau by Germany. Tho consequence is that Rusßia has been steadily preparing her land and sea forces to meat any emergency, and she is now quite ready. "Russia," concludes the correspondent, " believes in an early outbreak of hostilities " jand turning to Austria I find that in an article dealing with the relations between Russia and Great Britain, the Neue Freie Presse (Vienna) says that exceptional attention is being paid in official circles to the peouliar movements and; counter-movements of the >'Russo-British game of chess.' The antagonism between Great Britain and Russia, it says "is of suoh a nature that one cannot get rid of it at will; while, far from being brought into a satisfactory termination by means of treaties and' agreements, it must sooner or later be fought out between them at the point of the sword." All this ib surely plain enough! ■; . It is a marvellous state of affairs, for while Ministers speak of the situation with a lightness "amounting to flippancy, they also admit tho truth of all the statements which render the international political horizon so dark. Unluckily, too, just as Lord Salisbury s optimistic versions have invariably been falsified next day by the revelation of the'truth, so Mr Balfour's cheery representations to the Commons on Wednesday were promptly iturned into nonsense by the Pekin telegram

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next morning, the truth of which Mr Balfour had to admit, in a nervous, shame-faced way, and which proved to demonstrate that China, under Li Hung Chang's influence, had treated England with contempt, and thrown herself into the arms of Russia.. All that high-falu-tin stuff about the " open door," the Tientsin treaty, the Yang-tse Valley, and "at the cost of war" is apparently dissipated into mere froth and- vapouring. And yet England still makes such tremendous preparations!

In France one paper last night came out with tho heading " War Imminent Between Russia and England Over China." And Les Debate publishes a manifestly inspired article in which it declared that England has no idea of the magnitude of the risks she 'ran in enunciating tho doctrine of the open door. She now desires an arrangement with Russia, leaving to that country the north of China and herself taking the centre. France, which would support Russia in case of war, will be content with this arrangement if she has a free hand in the practical annexation of Southern China —that is, the province adjoining . Tonkin. But it is whispered that France, too, is preparing her own little anti-Britannic coup. Another of those curious African "missions" lias just started for destination not disclosed, but rumoured to be Khartoum!

Heaven only know3 bow the Spaniards are going to wriggle out of the mess into which they have muddled through their insane war with America, They will not bo required nominally to pay a war indemnity, but will have to take over tho heavy Cuban debt, which comes to much the same thing. To do this they must have financial aid, and report says that France will afford this aid, and in r,eturn will be recognised as the guardian of Spain. ■

It is not at least a curious coincidence that Spain should take this opportunity of erecting on the "Queen's Chair," contrary to treaty, a battery of heavy modern guns which completely command the Gibraltar anchorage and can operate on tho fortress itself? That this implies French connivance nobody doubts for a moment.

Meanwhile, Germany professes warm amity and America enthuses as intensely as ever over her joy in British friendship. But one wonders what would be the substantial value of all this if England had to go to war with Russia and France.

Not the least singular of the complexities which involve the present unparalleled situation is the vag\ieness which always proves to pervade Lord Salisbury's assurances to China. That last one now turns out to be valueless as against Russia's actual methods. Tie promised to support China against any foreign aggression duo to her standing out for -British rights. But she has suffered no aggression. Russia has not "aggressed." M. PavlofF has simply "got! at" China, and induced her to throw England overboard. We cannot attack Russia for that. If we "go for" anybody, it would have to be China, and then Russia would act on the defence there, but on the offensive towards India and Afghanistan.

So the net outcome seems to be simply that we have once more been hopelessly "jockeyed" and out-manosuvred by Russian diplomacy, and are powerless to do anything, not even having a good pretext for declaring war. ' It is a humiliating and lamentable position, and the country is growing more and more restive under it.

If Lord Salisbury and his colleagues have any adequate explanation to offer the sooner they bring it out the bettor, else they will find at no distant date that' they have utterly alienated the confidence of all parties. But at present daylight seems farther off than ever, •-,■.-