THE WORLD RULERS OF THE FUTURE.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 10571, 18 January 1896, Page 6

THE WORLD RULERS OF THE FUTURE.

SLAV AND ANGLIAN.

The "Contemporary Rsview" for Decambar gives the place'of bouour to an anonymous con-, tribution entitled "1920." The writer calculates that by that year the population of the world will iv tho main be 700 millions o£ people who speak English or are English subjects, 500 millions of Cfmieae, 200 millions of HufsioKs, 70 mili.;on3 of Germans, and 40 millions of Frenchmen. From these figuros the writer concludes that the Anglian and Sla? raegs are destined to divide the hegemony of al! the other races and of the world boticean them. "What follows from thia simple programme ? Surely this, tbat it will be an untold curso to all mankind and to ourselves that the k*o should quarrel aud flght, arid an untold blessing that we should auree. Why not

DIVIDE THE PBIMACY OP THE WORLD amicably between ua? Why not cocae'to a lull, frank, and friendly understanding and agreement with Russia on all outstanding questions between us, and consistently maintain this attitude henceforward sa a cardinal point in onr foreign polisy ?" S;> long as Rassia, as an Asiatic or semi-Asiatic Power, confines hoc expansion to the mainland of Asia, while, of course, respecting ladia, the " Contemporary Review " saye, so long it is no business of ours to lift a finger or fire a shot to stop her.

" This surely should amply suffice, as affording her a practically unlimited field on the vast Continent of Asia. Bat should she psradventure set herself to break the peace westwards '•■ a-i aggressiva policy on the side of the Balkan I'^-.usula, of Romnania, or of Austria, we shonld be justified in supporting Austria and Germany against her —that is, ia aiding the struggle of the more liberal, enlightened, and progressive Western Powers against her more backward and reactionary depotism. Similarly for Japan : supposiag we should be, sis we ought to be, in friendly alliance with her as a great Eastern maritime Powar of an enlightened and progressive typa, and ouv natural aliy in the Pacific, we shoal;! be- justified in aiding her to maintain her independence as against any Russian aggression. The3e views, whatever their precise merits, have at all events this advantage, that their adoption would commit us to a very simple and definite platform. Russia, would then know exactly where she stands, and it is very unlikely that she would act hersalf to strain tne limits of our supposed friendship with her to the breaking point.

" Among all our possibleforei^n rivals, Russia, »s we have seen, is at one end of the s6ale as regards growing numbers and potential future power, and Franca «t the other. France has reached the maximum o£ her population, and seems bound to decline continuously henceforward iv relative power and influence, since all the other races will be .advancing while her position is stationary or retrograde. Nevertheless, we must reckon with this patent faot, that the after-glow of N&pbleoa's victories and the long j FBENCH' DOMINATION IN EUROPE | strll Wind the eyej of every Frenchman. France is prepared for desperate straggles bsfora she will consjnt to take a back seat among the European Powers. We n<sed not here recall any well-known differences and possible occasions of conflict between us. Our policy should apparently be to walk warily and wissly in our relations with her, to treat her with all possible courtesy and consideration, so as to avoid all reasonable ground of ofEaace, but to stand firmly by cur own when necessary. For experience has showu, as in tha cage of the Newfoundland shores and fisheries, that the more we yield for the sako of amity, the more Franco will require. Meanwhile we abou!d secure oursslveß for the present and the irntn«diats future by an overwhelming fleet, as tee only effective answer to the immense fleet, viewing her relative maritime position nnd requirements, which France thinks it necessary to maintain. We can consols ourselves under this necessity—hard ror a peace-loving Power like Britain—with the reflection that this burden is only for to-day. For the British Empire is gaming fast on France in aa accelerating ratio with every successive decade iv population, wealth, resources, and every element of power ; so that almost before onr newest vessels hive time to grow old tb.3 n«ce;sity for replacing them will be passing away." Aut.:c;ps.ting the disappearance of Turkey, the writer turns next to she East. Ths most important fact of the pteseut sita&tion is that it is practically csrSain that we shall have to face, in the near future, a very serious or even a lOTINOUS COMMRKCIAL COMPETITION. The Japanese are already building their own war vessels of a large size. Meanwhile the rapid growth of manufactures in our dependency of India is giving causa for grava anxiety ro our commercial and rnauufaefcuring firms. Germany, the United States, Belgium, Italy, Rie all beginning to compete wish us more or leas seriously in some of our own pst market;?, and there is every prospect of a growiag competition iv future. The gravest mattar of all is the possible or probable result of ths awakening of China. When Chinese manufactures are fairly started on Chinese soil, with well-trained Jupmese, Eoglish, or American overseers and leadiug hand?, how can we poesibly pretend to hold our own in commercial competition with them ?

" In fine, the general outlook for the future is very threatening for Great Britain, whoao prosperity is so largely based upon and bound up with manufacturing supremacy and commercial Buesoss." We seam likely to be underbid by Eastern competition, first in afl the Eastern markets, and then, in tbe natural nnd inevitable course of things, in all the world's markets. Concurrentdy with this we have to face a growing competition from tha n&ttous of Europe and from the United States. I£so, this whole vast fabric of ou? commoroial gre&tue33 which we have laboriously built up tan-y gradually be undermined, and may even by-aad-bye ba swept away. This would involve a fundamental remodelling and reconstruction of our whole social and economical organisation. Emigration on a vast scale would probably be iuovit&ule, and the centre of gravity of. the British Empire, which is eren now moving steadily seawards, would tend to leave Great Britain propsr more and more.

"It may perhaps be objected that the foregoing arguments are mutually destructive—

that we cannot, for instance, gain steadily on France when onr corsrnercial prosperity is beiug undermined or overthrown, and a great tide of emigration is pouring from our shores.. Not so, I think, on a broad view. Doubtless wo shall experience grave troubles for a time during the transition stage. But what England loses her colonies will gain, and the future federation of tbo Empire, which will be forced on by the necessary readjustment, will knit us more firmly together. Only ws, as the lords of a quarter of the habitable globe, must not, in considering the question, narrow our vie-* down to the paltry ittm of 128.4-81 square miles represented by the British leles. We must lay aside, once and for all, all narrow provincial ideaS, and realise that we are citizens of a great worldwide empire."

The item i n the above programme of future untoward contingencies wherein our statesmen at pretent would appear to have any voice or any locus standi for action is, in the reviewer's opinion, the question of : THE AAVAKEHINO OP CHINA. " He thinks we shonld do nothing to favour it, although we cannot reasonably interfere to prevent it. If the Japs endeavour, as per treaty, to open up new Chinese ports and to start manufacture.? there, thsy will have to face a vast amount of obstraction and difficulty from in- ; ■ fluentiil and conservative Chinese officials; We ■' should not hurry the awakening; but as-fast as ••;■ ' a new commercial pud a ttrre is opensd up by./ / tha Japanese or any other Power, our mer- / chants should cut in betimes to secure their I share in its advantages. By this course we / ■.■■■ shall gain eommeicialiy for some considerable/^". time to come, and postpone the evil day, if \ti "., does come, when Chinese merchants and manu- .''. faeturera iv their turn will come into disastrous competition with hb in their own and all other markets. :.

" Turning to our great ..?•'.'• COLONIAL EMPIRE, the cardinal fact is that in 30 years' time the „ white population outside the British Isles will be not less than 30 millions, or a good three- ~ quarters of the whole population of the British , ■;■ Isles at present. Should the decline of out ..' commercial prosperity lead meanwhile to a .'■' much larger emigration from Great Britain to ;. her colonies, it is probable that the whits •'. populations of Great and Greater Britain mill ba about equal. In any case trade with the colonies will have greatly increased, and will ba likely to represent a far larger fraction of oar total trade than it does at present. Then will come the time for tbafc commercial union, or 'Zollverein,' which would involve too grent losses to the British consumer to be practicable at present. Moreover, the Empire will then be far more self-contaiaed, whether as regards food products, raw materials, or manufactures, than it is now. Otir present policy is to favour and foster this development, and to . knit the Empire closer together by all such links as ocean penny post, direct submarine telegraphic communication, liberal subsidies to improved and fas'fcsr lines of steamships, a regular series of Pan-Britannic athletic competitions or Olympic games, &c, and to get rid of by degrees and keep our hands free from all entangling commercial treaties with foreign Powers, which might stand in the way of a Zollverein, by-and-bye. Also, wa should by all means favour the entry of the United Statei into this .commercial union. Thsreby the whole English-speaking race will be drawn closer together, and the way paved for a great I Pin-Anglian or Pan-Anglo-Saxon confederation [ to supersede or replacs a Pan-Britannic federation for defence, which should be the first step. Again, the coming importance of the Pacific and practical certainty of a new entrance into it by | the Nicaragua Canal are cardinal facts ofthe ; present situation. The steady growth of oat | colonies in Australia and New Zealand, and the j sudden riso to power and prestige of. Japan, the j probsblo fnfcnre awakening of China, tbo coni ftructionofthe trans-Asian railway by Ku&sia, ! and her coming acquisition of an ice-free porttt supersede Vladivostoek, the recent opening oi lines of firstrciass, ateamere from China to Japan, and from Canada to Australia and New Zealand, are all important factors in the question. The effect of the Nicaragua Canal will be to restore the balance of commercial advantage as regards geographical position in favour or Britain, by providing an effective counterpoise westwards to the inevitable and unfavourable eastward shifting of the centre of gravity of the world's trade due to the Suez Canal. Thereby Great Britain will ba placed once more at the centre. But in order to taks dne advantage of this favourable condition it is necessary that we should set ourselves betimes ti seoure suitable maritime bases and coaling stations in the Pacific for onr fleets and conimerci&l marine, in addition to Vancouver, which we see now moss properly engaged in fortifying and preparing for the purpose." WHAT THE ENGLISH EMPIRE HAS TO DO is to hold on her present course for anothei generation, when she will ba too strong to ba attacked. The way to <3o this is to strengthen her navy bo that it would be equal to a combination of three Powers, or to conclude a strong alliance wbiea will save us from the peril we ran through the jealousy of rivals. Failing one of these expedients we shall, th« reviewer concludes, probably see the British Empire broken up before long, as the afterconsequence of a disastrous war which will show our colonies that, while committing them by tb.3 Impsrial connection to all hazards oil war, we are not strong enough to protect chem. The hegemony of the scattered fractions of our race will then fall naturally and almost inevitably to 4he United States, and Greali Britain propar will be reduced to the level of n . third-rate Power.