THE WELLINGTON ELECTION.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 9311, 30 December 1891, Page 2

THE WELLINGTON ELECTION.

(From Ouu Own Cohkksuondknt.)

Wellington, December 29,

As time goes on and the eventful 15th January approaches, the confidence of Mr Bell and his friends and of the Opposition party generally in the result seems to increase by rapid strides. An active member of Mr Bell's committee went through the figures very carefully with me to-day, explaining to me the reasons why certain working men's votes are counted upon, which I should have regarded as more than doubtful, if not certain for the other side. I am bound to say this explanation seemed very reasonable and probable. If the shrewdest and most experienced electioneering tacticians in Wellington can be depended upon Mr Bell i.s safe to go in with a thumping majority. Several of his friends are sanguine that he will beat Mr M'Lean by fully a thousand votes. One very carefully worked-out estimate gives 3600 votes for Mr Bell, and 2500 for Mr M'Lean. Tbat you will observe presumes only 6100 votes to be recorded out of some 10,000 on the roll. It is calculated that he will secure not only all the votes he polled last year, but also many which went as plumpers for Messrs Duthie. and Fisher and Jellicoe, as well as many which there were split with otlier candidates. Further he has inlinitely the best committee, and most complete organisations that has ever yet been seen ill Wellington, if not in New Zealand. Not a single point is being missed. The Ministerialists are equally active and profess eipial confidence, but I lind that there has been a great deal of inaccurate nonsense written about the large and enthusiastic meetings on that side. People who were present give me a very different account. Of course, the Ministerialist party is at a serious disadvantage in not having a strong candidate ; hut Mr M'Lean has been so thoroughly taken up and implicitly accepted by the party that this cannot be pleaded as an excuse in case of defeat. Ministers have appealed to their friends to stand by them loyally in the struggle, and to treat it as a test of strength—as if it were a regular appeal to the country. So far as I can judge, their friends are responding very well and cordially, in spite of their lack of personal enthusiasm for the Ministerial choice; and neither side will have any disloyalty to complain of. Both sides will bring up every vote that can possibly be gained, and the issue will be purely one of the largest battalions, and not of tactical or strategic skill as is so often the case in such elections. There is one point which enhances the importance of this contest, which Ministers have treated as a touchstone of their popularity and that of thtir policy. The election is not for a mere ordinary single constituency, but for a constituency entitled how to return four members —the largest city constituency in the whole colony. The verdict given on the 15th prox. will be that of some 50,000 people, or nearly oner-twelfth of the colony's entire population. This materially enhances its importance.