THE COMMERCIAL BAROMETER.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 127, 12 April 1862, Page 6

THE COMMERCIAL BAROMETER.

| (From the Saturday lievieiu.') | ( There is a large class of men, and those by no means the- least shrewd among us, who regulate their faith in political rumors, and their anticipations of the future, exclusively by (he fluctuations of consols. The most serious and best authenticated news passes with them for untiling unless itleaves its mark upon the Exchange, and the slightest wavering in the market is regarded as an omen of far more imp.ori.ance than all the gossjp of foreign correspondent;-, or even than the information of those most cohversaut with diplomatic afl'aiiSi Iv the main, perhaps, the market for consols is a guide more to be depended on than any other ; but, as it is liable to be affected by other than the ostensible causes of its variations, they who pin their faith upon its indications are. as likely to be deceived as those who confidently believe in rain whenever the barometer falls, and fancy that the amount of foul weather will always correspond to the extent of the disturbance of the atmospheric density. If one considers for a moiucit what the commercial barometer really does express, it will not be difficult to find some' justification for the faith which is reposed in its prophetic indications ; though, at the same time, abundant reasons will appear for qualifying any excess of confidence iv this mercantile oracle. After all, the quoted prices me-ely tell us that buyers or sellers, as the case may be, are on the increase ; and, on every occasion of sudden disturbance, the buyers and sellers who make the market are composed, in an unusually large proportion, of members of the Exchange and outside speculators. The current price at such times depends very little on what would be the real commercial value of the stock if undisturbed by speculative operations; but it is not the less an expression of a judgment formed by those whose special business it is to anticipate probable fluctuations, and who are backed by information which reaches the commercial world in a far less adulterated form than that of the newspaper paragraphs and telegrams which feed the cariosity of the rest of the world.

If we put out of consideration the occasional influence of crafty schemes for affecting the market, it is not altogether unreasonable to gauge the importance of political news by enquiring whether its effect has or has not been felt on the Exchange. 3Jut, though the observers *of the market are seldom deceived by the direction which its movements take, they almost always are so by their extent. Even the best-informed can do no more than guess the rates which will'ultimately prevail in the event of this or that foreboding being realised. When the prospect of a bad harvest or the risk of a costly war depresses the funds, we may be quite sure that the adepts are, in all probability, right in their general estimate of the future, but we have very little reason to assume with blind confidence that they have hit upon the exact measure of the calamity. As a general rule, perhaps, it may be said that the symptoms of the market tend to excess. A rise or fall in price may be caused, in the first instance, by the prudent purchases of realizations of keen men of business ; but no sooner is the fashion of speculating for a fall or a rise introduced than it is followed by a host of imitators, who first exaggerate the movement, and then complicate it by the various operations which their hopes or their necessities may prompt. When the future is thus discounted, it is quite as likely to be over-dis-counted as not. The sum of all is that those who are not of the initiated will seldom be misled in attaching due weight to the early influence of political events upon the market for Government securities, hut are almost certain to go wrong if they take the range of the disturbance as the measure of anticipated calamities.

Another delusion which i 3 very common among the believers in the Stock Exchange, and which, for the sake of dramatic effect, is often fostered by writers who should know better, is this :— Consols fall, we will supnose one, or two, or three per cent. Straightway our arithmetical politician works out his rule of three sum, multiplies the fall by the total amount of the stock, and "gravely informs the world that the country is poorer by so many tens or hundreds of millions sterling than it was the day before—the real truth being that the country is not a halfpenny the poorer or the richer on that account. Persons who wish to invest at the moment are so much the better off; while those who are driven to sell are losers to the same extent, and that is all. To the country the gain balances the loss. Even a diminution which promised to be perpetual in the| prices of all securities would signify, m>t a loss of wealth, but an increase in the rate of interest, which may spring as well from the greater activity iv the employment of capital as from a felling off in its supply. A temporary depression, however, has not even this significance, and, as is the case lat present, may coincide with a prevailing rate of interest which ought to correspond to a prejcisely opposite movement. What a fall on the eve of an expected war really does in a manner express, is the enhancement of the rate of interest which is expected to follow from the excessive expenditure that war may involve ; and, if it measures anything, it is only a future and possible, not a present and actual loss.

When the meaning of the quotation is shorn of all exaggeration, there is not much to cause alarm in the considerable influence which the affair of: the Trent has exercised upon the money market — or rather upon the security market only, for as yet the course of ordinary discount operations has suffered no adverse change, if the tendency has noti rather been in the opposite direction. The| bank goes on, as before, gradually in-| creasing its store of bullion at the rate ofj some £200,000 a week. Money is fully as plenti-! ful as it was previously to the n«ws of the outrage,! and the sole residuary elfuct is that consols, and some! other permanent securities, may be bought two or three per cent, cheaper than a fortnight .ago. The fair inference from this, no doubt, is thai the j City, like the rest of the world, is not verysang-j guine of a peaceful settlement; but those who imagine that war, when it comes, must of necessity, produce an effect proportionate to that which its shadow has caused, may be as much deceived as those who built on such expectations on the eve of the Russian war. Actual war of the most costly kind was then found coinpaible with j a range of prices for public securities much! higher than had prevailed during the; previous interval of suspense. The market oft! that occasion exaggerated its gloomy expecta-' tions. Whether it is doing the same thing now! is a matter on which we believe that it is impos\j sible even for the best informed to form any trustworthy opinion. All that can fairly bs said now is that the commercial public fully share the general expectation of war, but that the Stock Exchange can furnish no data from which to guess its probable effect on the future value of public securities or the course of mercantile atlairs. One solid fact is indisputable—that in the abundance of money and in the completeness of our armaments, we are better prepared for all contingencies than we ever have been at the outhreak of any past war. I

A British Butler.—Not long since, at a mtdicevnl man-ion, with frowning1 battlements, whose martial character was slightly softened hy the lnrge hospitable plate-glass windows expanding beneath them, we met a British butler of this stamp. He was quie', gentlemanly, unobtrusive, with a little of the interesting- air of the invalid about him. Win did that man infuse a gentle aweintoourinmost being? Why did we invariably feel on our good behaviour when he entered the room ? In Canning's Rovers, Casimere informs Beeflngton, in strict confidence, that the waiter of the inn is "no waiter, but a Knight Templar." We believe the butler in that medioeval mansion is no butler, but a peer of the realm, doing penance for past irregulariies in the temporary disguise of a confidential servant. It is with some degree of wonder that we look back, even now, at the audacity of which we were guilty on the eye of our departure. The practise ot feeling domestics is, we believe universal. We asked ourselves the question—Ought we, can we, may we, venture to oiler that highly snpeiior man anything in the shape of sordid lucre ? In other words, shall we " tip " him ? It was a moment of great perplexity. Time pressed. It was necessary to act. Suddenly, as the carriage drove to the door, we stretched forth the hand to that disiingte individual—who was standing with calm condescension ready to let down the steps —and did the d eed. There was a momentary glance and a murmur of the voice. It was not expressive of gratitude, but rather a quiet pity, tolerating our weakness, and humouring our infirmities. The fingers of that aristocratic hand at the same moment closed firmly on the coin we had ventured to present. Springing into the camasre, we sank back on the cushions, oppressed by a sease of his goodness.

ITHTi ASSAULT OF THE TAKOO FORTS !(l--HOM THE NARRATIVE OP TUB. WAR WITH CHINA IX 1800. UV LIEUTKNANT-COLONIiI, G. J. Vt'Ol.SULISY.) It was the rear f'u' c °f 'be fort we attacked, in the centre of which was the gate, having two wel 'ditches rnmii"S along the face of the work. From the outside of one °* these the wooden bridge had been removed, tuiJ the drawbridge or the inner om drawn, up. The £lit;o itself was blocked up.with stroii"*' tiinlicis, placed closely in rows, dijd'-iiiserteib'V.l ll'c ground »"-th'e bottom. .Mijil mid earth had keen banked- Up aloiig the interioi <>f this face, so as to strengthen it against our shot. The river 'face «'ils partly oblique to the line ol the bank so that at its south-eastern corner it nearly tou'ehed the stream, whilst iv rear, at th e •ioutli-western angle, ™s some twenty or thir tv yards from it. «»«* Lemg the case, the t u -" o ditches could not be earned completely round t h o river face, and so the outer one terminated half way up the work. The lu-eneh, who hwl approached the angle, U"«*ly perceived tnig) 1 many men living run round, thus turned the first ditch, although most of t ho men first up had scrambled across on the ]a(l( , ers . The Canton coolies in the French ser vi ce can .ied their ladders, and I have .never seen lnen nndcr lire behave with gieater c joluu*.. o Perform their alloted work in a more nuutei-01-lact Wav _ Til( , the two ditches^ was om/twentv feet, and this was planted as thickly as c l OS e ■itubble with sharp bamboo stakes, to cross which on foot was almost impossible ; these were also placed along «»('« l< the walls>' b. etwue« theih and the inner ditches. The scramble ov C r these two ditches and the staked places next to them was no easy matter, and all who crossed them deserve well of their country. Showers or missiles of all kinds, from pots filled with 'imc > to round shot thrown from the hand, were showered from the .valls, and annoyed the gallant lew w ho were fortunate enough'to have reached the foot o f the walls unhurt; whilst the poor fellows in rear who ran along the ditches, seeking for some favorable spots to cross at, or the more reckless ones who plunged into the ditch at the places they first came to, were exposed, not only to a rattling discharge of arrows, bolts from cross-bows, jingalls firing handful* of slugs from the work itself, but also to a flanking fire of round shot, thrown with accuracy from the correspondingly placed fort on the south bank. It was during this period that almost the whole of our loss was incurred ; and the narrow causeway, of about sixty yards in length, which led through the deep mud and water, extending along nearly the entire of the face attacked, was soon covered with the dead and dying. The obstacles to be overcome were so difficult that an unpleasantly protracted time had elapsed before a sufficient number of men had assembled beneath the wall to attempt a scramble over it. The French had succeeded in getting over three or four ladders ; but as quickly as they placed them against the walls, they were as quickly thrown down or pushed back by the Chinese within, who, notwithstanding our proximity, were as active in their defence as when some hours previously we had been playing at long bowls with them. Many could be seen jumping on the parapet, and from thence taking deliberate aim at those below ; and, having fired", they jumped back again to re-load. Colonel Mann, of the Royal Engineers, who was amongst the first over the two ditches, with Major Anson, A.D.C.,had, after much hacking and cutting with their swords, succeeded in severing the ropes which held up the drawbridge. Down it came with a crash, but it was so shattered by shot that, at first it seemed incapable of sustaining any weight. A single beam of the outer bridge had been left by the Chinese; it was quite loose and rolled about, yet it enabled many to cross over. The quaint joking of our men was most amusing whenever any unlucky fellow, whilst crossing, overbalanced himself and fell into the ditch, from whence he climeil up the muddy, bank opposite, there perchance to meet his death-blow, ere the very smile at his own mishap had passed from his countenance; such is life, death, and war. Every minute added to the number of men who got across and under the walls, round which they prowled to discover a scaleable place. Our gun's still battered away at the parapet, wherever the enemy showed themselves in numbers, or attempted to work the iron guns which were placed almost at every yard along the works. Our allies commenced to ascend die walls cautiously. I the first and most daring being of course hurled ' back, ladder and all ; but, when men are determined, and their courage is sustained by constantly increasing numbers coining up from the 'Irear (which has, of course, a proportionally dis heartening effect upon tho besieged), success ; under such circumstances is generally on the side lof the assailants. Up, rung after rung of the ladder the French crept warily, until at length, 1 with a hound, the first man jumped upon ' the parapet and waved the tricolor of his • nation, w'jilst everyone joined in hi* ■ maddening cheer, amidst the wild clmaour ■of which his spirit -passed away from him to another, and let ns hope, a better world. He full, shot through the heart, in the proudest posi- : tioii iv which a soldier can die—who c >uld wish for a nobler death ? Almost simult tneously with "j this event, young Chaplain, an ensign of the 6.7 th Regiment, succeeded in reaching the top of th--1 parapet, partly pushed and helped by the men along with him ; he carried the Queen's colour of | his regiment, which he let float out proudly into I the breeze—it was a splendid sight to see. A I regimental colour has been seldom used upon such jan occasion before; it is generally an ordinary I Union Jack, made of hunting, that is carried to jplaut iv a breach, the other being a too dearly iprized military emblem to risk in such a place, where the explosion of a miue, or the momentary success attending a sortie, might occasion it's j loss for ever,' or hand it over an easy prey jto the enemy. It was an inspiriting moment for everyone, and each felt that strange sensation I which thrills through the frame iv all actions when the turning point has been past, and the clouds of uncertainty, which until then hung around the scene, are suddenly dispelled, relieving succcs;, Uefore our flag was displayed, some few had made ! their way witiiin the gate, the first men of cither |army actually inside the work being an officer of i the 44th Regiment, named Rodgers, nnd Licu- | tenant Bursicm, of the 67th Regiment; these ■jwere the small end of the wedge, which is ever Upiickly follewcd by the more substantial part. I The Chinese still fought within the works, and tiic bayonets of both French and English had to come into play ere all resistance ceased. JCnsign Chaplain and a small party who followed the colours, rushed up the ramp leading to the high cavalier which formed the principal feature of the fort, and cleared it with the bayonet of all the • Chinese there ; in doing this that gallant young ; officer received more than one wound. One Chinese General had been killed during the bombardment, and a second, the chief man who com-' manded all the northern forts, was shot by an officer of marines after he had entered. This. General was a red-buttoned mandarin of the. highest military order, and refusing to submit, fought to the last. ,