BALKAN TRADE POSSIBILITIES.

Oamaru Mail, Volume XXXVIII, Issue 11832, 18 January 1913, Page 2

BALKAN TRADE POSSIBILITIES.

London merchants are \ /.anticipating a .boom-in trade between Great Britain and the Balkan States on the conclusion of the war with Turkey. The-liberation of Thrace from the stultifying influence of Turkish rule and. the probable opening of new ports on the Adriatic and the Aegean are expected to- bring about a great increase of commercial- activity. The ravages of the war will have to be repaired. 'There will be railways to be built, docks to construct, roads to make, ' and probably, in view of the ©uhauced importance of Bulgaria, Servia, Montenegro,'and Greece, warships to be added to their navies, guns to their armies, and aeroplanes to both. But it is pointed out by' city men of wide experience that this very desirable boom may be postponed for some considerable time.- -The economic development of the Balkan States will be slow. They will not be able- to exact a large indemnity from Turkey in the event of their final triumph,, and their financial sacrifices for the carrying out t.he war , has been so enormous that '-.f. their. com- ~ mercial activity, which "has been steadily onthe increase, will be set back for many months, even if their victory wer Turkey: is complete. It : must not be forgotteil, too, that against the rise of the Balkan; States must be set the.decline.of Turkey. But in this respect the effect on Britishtrade will not be very great, for it has ; been; declining—or, at least statidnary--of. late years in comparison with Germany's trade with Turkey m".Europe.' In any. case, if the victors are crippled the.'.de- ■; feated will be even more seriously haiidi-" -capped by the results of the;,war. The purchasing power of both the Balkan States and Turkey must be : .diminished until' the cost of the war. has-been defrayed. Nevertheless, assuming that/a complete and lasting settlement of all out-, standing questions is reached, the boom;will come ,sooner : or later, ..and-British, traders should prepare for it. The -.opeM. ing up ■ of new ports will mean a greatly increased volume of shipping..■... Should'; Servia acquire her outlet to the ••Adriatic;-, a railway line may have to be built to-it through the north of Albania. Salonika will become of much greater importance,--and, on the Other hand, the Bulgarianports of Varna and Burgas, - on the Black Sea, may, .perhaps, 'diminish nuactivity. In any event, Great Britain will be dealing with four allied countries who, together, will rank practically.as a firstclass Power, with a population' of over; 10,000,000. Bulgaria has an export and import trade amounting: to between £lO,000,000 and £11,000,000 Annually,' Greece over £10,000,000, and Servia about £7i--000.000. ' Of Bulgaria's: imports -AustriaHungary has hither'o-supplied about"'2s per cent:, and Great Britain and Germany about 16 per cent. each.: ; To Servia, 1 Austria has been supplying"something like '4O per cent, of her imports, but this figure'is. declining, and, as the result of the war, may be expected to diminish still further.' Witii Greece the ..United Kingdom, occupies first place as exporter, Britain's trade with that country amounting to. 30 per cent, of her total purchases froui abroad. In spite of all the disadvantages under which the Balkan States have laboured, ; their external trade has steadily increased : of late-years, and with the. greater free--1 dom which their successful issue:from the war will confer upon thein they are likely to make great strides forward when they have recovered from the effects'of the oon- ; flict. ' ■