Russia's Search for Peace

Oamaru Mail, Volume XXXI, Issue 8832, 12 July 1905, Page 1

Russia's Search for Peace

tlly Douglas Story, in "The World Today.) The. great problem before Russian statesmen is how to lind a means to end the war in Manchuria without per loss of prestige or further expenditure of money and men. The war is unpopular wilit every section of the community, ami because of it the internal situation is pregnant with peril. The men who rule the destinies of Russia realise (hat the war is the immediate cause of all the troubles which at present assail the nation. To the full of J'ort -Arthur are attributed the ugly oeeuri of Sunday, January 22, and the failure of General Grippenberg's movements against the Japanese are responsible for the fear of a speedy recrudescence of Ihe trouble.

Peace would be popular if peace were at all possible; but peace mwssilat.'K the disbanding of a great army; ami Russia, remembering the apprehension which accompanied the dispersal of tin; armies of Bonaparte. of Krant. and of \apoleon 111, dare not contemplate, in the explosive condition of its society, tile release of hundreds of thousands of veterans unapprised by victory. It dare not risk the cll'ecl upon its social structure of those men cast loose among its villages and factories. llic strength of an autocracy depends upon the faith of the peopte in its omnipotence. Once that faith is shocked by the acknowledgment of the superiority of an enemy so numerically insignilicani as the Japanese, the authority of Russian autocracy is gravely menaced.

In St. Petersburg, built as it is upon a marsh, pessimism wraps the people about as in a moral miasma. The feeling is that Russia cannot win. Compromise seems equally impossible, not that Japan would ho averse, to peace or extortionate in its demands, lint that- Russia ' has a policy at. stake which precludes the possibility of friendship with Japan bo long as that, nation is regarded by the rest of the world as the more puissant power in the East.

Japan is as eager for pence as Russia. It is an Oriental nation, and of nil nations it is the most capable of realising its enemy's desire lo "save face" in defeat. It is even likely to assist Russia toward a graceful retreat from an impos sible situation. Japan lias nothing to gain from forcing upon Russia an igno minions defeat, but much to hi,sc. Pru dence counsels gentler treatment. Japan knows that by success in this war it purchases a frontier, and if that frontier is not to prove a lasting menace lo its peace it must agree with its adversary quickly, and so secure it as a friend and not a latent enemy.

Before Japan had proposed an alliance to Great Britain it had offered itself to Russia, and had been refused. Russia was not inclined to change its Chinese pol.icy to suit the island Kingdom, and so Japan made alliance with Britain. The consequent, union is purely a marriage des convenances, and Japan" to-day considers that it owes little more of gratitude lo Britain than to any other of the great Powers to which she is not bound in a formal treaty. So far as Japan is concerned, the best way out of the existing situation would be an agreement which would guarantee the sanctity of the new frontier in Manchuria and would assure for if the co-opera-tion of the Power which most seriously obstructs its dominion in the Kast. The objection to such an agreement in the mind of Russian statesmen is that it involves the reversal of their entire policy with respect to China. From the beginning, the Russo-Japanese war has been fought not. to force a line of conduct, upon Russia by Japan, ot upon Japan by Husia, but to impress a policy upon China. The pivot of the strike is in Peking. If Russia were lo make peace with Ja pan at the present juncture it, would acknowledge the loss of its influence over China. It is because of that that friends of mine, actively engaged in shaping the I destinies of Russia, assure me that the alliance which was impossible in 1902 is impossible in 1905. It is because of it that Russia hesitates to make peace now, and that the greatest statesmen aro seeking some other outlet from the war. One curious difficulty of the situation is

not only that the war is unpopular but that it is impossible to inculcate in the non-combatant people of Russia a hatred of the Japanese. Not only do the common people fail in their duty of antipathy to the Japanese, but the very men from the front regard the enemy with a philosophy that is disconcerting. The war was born in policy, has been nurtured in policy, must end in policy. The trend of Russian foreign policy has been greatly modified by the attitudo ot neutral nations since the outbreak of hostilities. Tho sentimental alliance with France has. been sorely tried. Germany has seen its opportunity and has seized it. As one Russian statesman remarked to me in St. Petersburg the other day: ''Germany has done far more for us in this i war than France. If France yielded any-

tiling of her very benevolent iimitrnlily now tlio Franco-Russian allium n would ill once censo to cxiat, as an active inatrument." One great ell'eel of the increase of Herman influence in St. l'clerttburg baa been a corresponding diminution ill the liopularily of (Ileal Britain. The Urand ihionl party —ill sympathy with < feminity, by reason of relationship and tradition liiui resented the altitude of personal opposition to them assumed by the British lillil .\merieaii press. ami lire, not failed to iill- § press upon hi', lmperj-il Majesty the «ignilieanee nl' the sliippin--. incidents in Hie lied Sea ami t lie alia ir ■ I v'' Hank. The mischievous sensati. !i I i'. re ports of I lie events of ;-i.> -i i, , n v has still more ali'ceti I ■ ; miiv kind lines.! of Ihe t '/.a r I . 11 ii ■, t hie of the forciiio-a Hein .m , who was received by his M n ' u.o dice lcccntly. repealed . the ( zar then made to . > . frailly and souirwh.it we.ui ■■ I - i>said : "I sympathised v\ i' i. •! ■ .1 (ireat Britain whin they ■ • >,: .1 In ■,i si,lts eas| upon their On e - i- hi sponsilile press of the C.uiiiiieiu during il.e South African win. but now the British press attacks me with equal malignancy. Why!' 'I hey niii'.tit at least have wailed I till they knew the truth!" ./ The consequence of all lliis is that the (Irand lineal party, hiiviui; dcliiiilelv detcruiincd upon peace, is lookine, nlioiit for a means to distract public attention from the disastrous consequences of the campaign. The (irand flukes require Home ■ thing sensational to drag the people iiway.. from the conleniplat ion of the effeefs riM twelve month,i of war. They have nought it in a rupture with (Ileal Britain. It astonished me on my arrival in SI. lVlershun; fo lind how far hostility to (Ireat Britain laid advanced into the realm of practical politics. A nobleman of position in personal allendance upon Ihe (V.tir said: "Individually, I like the Hrilish; art a nation, 1 hale (ireitl Britain. My feeling is the general sentiment, throughout Russia. It is true \vc have had only dim campaign xvilli Brilnin anil two will) France: but the cause of our antipathy to the former it diplomatic, not warlike. One may be beaten by all enemy in fair tight and afterward become close friendu, but. ono cannot be worsted in a coll loci* of wits without harboring resentnienl. Britain has made us look foolish, ami bcenumi of that we hale Britain. The best, guarantee of good relations between Russia and (ireat Britain would lie a fair settlement, after a fair light." These remarks K'nl me lo hie Kxcallency the Viceroy Alexeielf, fo M. do Witte, to Count lii the lllimiiau Ambassador at the Court of St. iliiineH, to the responsible ulntf of (lie Foreign Olllee, in search of coniiriual ion or denial. 1 am not permitted to quote miy one of fbesii texlually, nor indeed was if. possible flint, from the nature of their position, they should admit so grave a design nil war with Kngland ; but 1 learned Ilia!, the proposition has at. Icaiil been a matter of dinciission, although 1 was assured if was purely a "SI. Petersburg fantasy" which the country at large would not support.

11l regard to oil" mailer I may ililole M. ile Wille in his own ivonln. 1 astied hint if danger were to be appi eh"ia 1.1 m h change in Ministry from Cm.M r< air. i to Liberal in Great Britain. Hi' I t ■ll.'iicy saw none; "Your Gmcrnii" m r. aln nv»t sensible. A change of Mini l'\ mi any oilier coimlry alarms (he cli.hi.'. Ileiii■: of I'hirope, but your traditio ol a stable foreign policy preserveM u. limn mi'giv ings on the approach of a ;; -in i'al i lee I ion."

The result, of my inquiries in many di reel ions lias been lo eomiuee inn lhal although war with Knglainl has been urged upon the ('/nr. wiser euiiiucls have prevailed, and his I'lseclleiiey Count llcnelteu doilf has n turned to London charged lo persevere in that, policy of eolieiiial iotl with which his name is gratefully associated in liritain. Some few weeks ago, when his Ivveellency's recall was seriously considered at SI. Petersburg, because of his pacificatory attitude nil the oeeaeion of (he Dogger Hanli affair, a grate thinner menaced the relations of the two countries. Happily, lhal danger has passed, and u. man who is at nine persona grata ill- llin Court of St, James ami. in a very real sense, is trustee bv Ihe Hi'itish people hail retunied to his post in London.

Couriers have been runt to I'iuin and to Home. Berlin is in closest touch with Tsarskoc -Nolo. Count Rcnekeildorll' has re turned to London somewhere a path to peace may be found. 'I lie external obstacle to peace in tin l probability that Japan will demand a substantial indemnity. RuMiia has invent not, to compensate its enemy for the war; ha« challenged Japan to come to St. Petersburg or .Mo.\cow lo receive paymenl. should it insist, on monetary amend:., lint. Japan needs money. 11, in aware thatthere is little likelihood of itH raining mueb mole in Lombard street or Wall street. It. knows that till' length of its tenure of the new territory in Manchuria is limitcl to the extent In which it hail financially crippled Huwiia, and it looks eagerly lo iln enemy for rcli-'f from its embari'aa.imeiit. It- is tori soon io slimiest, a means whereby this gulf may be bridged; but, willun th" past few week i several of the foreign en giilccrs concerned in the construi'limi of the railways planned bv Rlussia in I I i"a have been in consultation with Mini ,l< ill St,, Petersburg, and in the exe-iiii e of their inst rnel ions may lie Ihe plait eal settlemenl of the indemnity.