HOW THE FIGHT WILL END

New Zealand Times, Volume LII, Issue 12286, 4 November 1925, Page 7

HOW THE FIGHT WILL END

INDICATIONS OF tHE PROBABLE RESULT OF TO-DAYS POLL

REFORM VICTORY SEEMS CERTAIN

CONTEST AT INVERCARGILL ANTICIPATED TO BE CLOSE

The indications of the probable result of to-day’s poll are that the Reform Party will be returned to power with a strong working- majority. According to the reports, received from the “Tames” correspondents in the various centres of New Zealand the electors realise that the. .fight is between Reform, representing stable government, and Labour, who only represent a section of the community. Invercargill, where Sir Joseph Ward is opposed by Mr Hargest, the result is expected to he very close. The anticipations gained from observation and the trend of public feeling are as follow:-

PROSPECTS IN AUCKLAND

REFORM WILz. NOT LOSE SEATS AND WILL PROBABLY GAIN. (By Telegraph.—Special to .“Time*.’’) AUCKLAND, November 3.. Sir James Parr, whose fight in Eden has attracted more attention than other electorates, is now expected to hold the seat. Auckland East, Auckland Central, and Auckland West seem likely to return their present Labour representatives, Messrs Lee, Parry, and Savage. In Grey Lynn Miss Melville will hold well against Mr Bartram, who has sat in Parliament as the nominde of tho Labour Party, bulj probably not well enough. Roskill is expected to stick to MrPotter, and Parnell will give Mr J. S. Dickson another big majority. In the Manukau electorate Mr John Massey, a brother of the late Prime Minister, is putting up an excellent fight against the Labour candidate, Mr Jordan, and the result will be, Franklin will return to .Mr ' . McLennan, who won the seat in the byelection which followed Mr Massey s death, and the Government will retain Raglan and Tauranga also, per medium of the 1-Eon.' R» F» Bollard t and Mr C. E. Macmillan. . At Thames, Mr T. W. Rhodes has three opponents, but the indications are that he will hold the seat for the Government Party. . 1 , Mr H. Poland seems fairly assured of return in the Ohinemuri electorate. In Waitomo, Messra J. C. Rolleston (Government) and W. J. Broadfoot (Nationalist) are fighting wha.t looks to be a very even battle. ~, The Waikato seat, at present held by a Nationalist, Mr F. Lye, should be won by Reform. Mr. Lye won by the narrowest of margins in 1923, azainst two Reformers. North of Auckland, the chances of candidates are difficult to estimate Mr Coateß, of course, will have a big majority, but Mr Allen Bell, with four opponents in Bay of Islands, is by no means certain of election, and there may be a chaige nl8 “ in -^? rs " den. where Mr W. Jones (Reform) has made headway. IN SOUTHLAND SIR JOSEPH WARD’S CHANCES DEFINITE PREDICTION UNWISE. (By Telegraph.—Special to “Times.”) INVERCARGILL,' November 3. Some vigorous contests have taken place in the Southland electorates, but in the main they have been carried through in a very good spirit, both by the candidates concerned and by the general public. . ~ The principal interest has been directed to the Invercafgill seat, where Sir Joseph Ward has fought a good fight against his less experienced opponent, Mr James Hargest, consequently the interest has deepened as the campaign progressed, and a record poll ia anticipated,’with a very narrow margin of votes between the two contestants. The Labodr candidate for the same seat, Mr P. H. Hickey, still maintains his place, but his chances of polling a substantial, vote have, been lessened through public attention being diverted to the other candidates,

In the Wallaae electorate, Mr Adam Hamilton, Reform, holds a very strong chance. of’ being returned to the House, mainly because of his past record of service. Mr George Edie, the Nationalist candidate, after announcing ' his retirement yesterday, has re-entered the contest: but, nevertheless. is not likely to obtain much support. Mr Peter Gilfedder. Liberal, will poll fairly well, hut his chances of success are remote.

Mr Mackenzie, who is representing Labour, has put up a gSod fight, and through the multiplicity of candidates is likely to be a close runner-up to Mr Hamilton. A- lively campaign has been fought in Awarua between Mr P. De La Perrelle, who is representing the Nationalist Party, and Mr J. R. Hamilton, a former representative of Reform, who was defeated three years ago. Mr Hamilton has made progress, bqt the general opinion js that .Mr Perretle will maintain his position by a small majority. The Hon. fi. J. Anderson is opposed' by Mr William Hinchey in the Mataura electorate, and so well has he conducted his campaign that his friends confidently anticipate he will go hack with a good majority. , Reports from Wakatjpu indicate that Mr James Horn, the present member, will not have such an easy win as was the case last election, hut be is expected to he strong enough politically to withstand the challenge, made by Mr Jnmes Ritohift, who has consolidated the Reform interests in Wakatipu.

As regards Clutha, a change is jpoked for, aq Mr Fred. Waite has been making many friends in all parts of that electorate.

• INDICATIONS IN OTAGO REFORM MAY*GAIN THREE MR STATHAM SEEMS £!tFE. (By Telegraph—Special to “Times.”) The indications point strbngjy to the gam of two, possibly, of three seats in I*llo by the Reform Party. It is generally concluded that three of tho Dunedin city constituencies will return their former members. Mr Downie Htewart is opposed in Dunedin West by a coal miner who has not long been resident in New Zealand, but who has, despite the fact that ho is a comparative stranger, lately held the position of Otago organiser for the Alliance of Labour. Mr Ralph Harrisofi by name. He was projected into the Dunedin West contest when Mr Moss, who opposed Mr Stewart three years ago,

crime under tho lash of the Labour Party for venturing to interpret its land policy in his own way. Mr Stewart should win handsomely. Labour has another weak candidate, Mr John Gilchrist, in Dunedin Central. The party has tried to persuade the constituency that it has not been represented .through its member hold, ing the ' office of Speaker,- but Mr Statham is promised better r support, than ever before in the industrial portion, of the constituency, and his seat seems perfectly safe. , Mr Sidey is the only man who can bold .Dunedin 'South against Labour, and though Mr Macmanus, who is a member dr both the City Council and the Harbour Boqrd and who has the recommendation of having been on active service, will poll well, ho cannot defeat the old member.

The contest in Dunedin North is particularly interesting between Mr Mhnro and Mr Ta'pley, the latter being Mayor of the city. It is an “even betting” event, and if Mr Munro gets back he will have little to spare. . 'Mr Connelly, who opposes Mr Dickson''in Chalmers, was president of the A.S.R.S. when it declared the railwaymen’s strike last year. To mention that is to show that' lie should have small ohances of success in an electorate with a large farming vote. The presence of a Labour candidate in the field for Clutha should make the election of Mr Waite a certainty. The mining vote at Kaitangata and some' smaller workers’ votes nave always gone agfiinst the Reform Party in the past. The loss of them this time by Mr Edie spells disaster for him. Similarly, the candidature of a Labour nominee in the Wakatipu electorate should help Mr Ritchie, the Reform candidate, but Mr Horn knows every face in the wide electorate, and is on terms of familiarity with, all the electors. Mr Horn’s re-election seems assured, * The pendulum in Oamaru is expected to swing back in Mr Lee's favour, and his friends are exceedingly confident of his success. Mr BitcSiener is likely to go hack for Waitaki, a constituency which lies largely in Canterbury. There is no reason to anticipate defeat for the Minister for Labour -in Mataura which is to a great extent a Southland rather than an Otago district. ' HAWKE’S BAY REFORM WILL GAIN NAPIER OTHER SEATS DOUBTFUL. (By. Telegraph—Special to “Times.”) NAPIER, November 3. The Napier- seat last election was captured on a minority vote, there being three anti-Labour candidates fighting against Mr L. Mcllvride. The latter consequently won in an easy canter, due to the unnecessary votesplitting, 2000 votes being cast: for the two lowest candidates, Messrs A. E. Jull and J. Vigor Brown. Mr John Mason was tho best of the. three. Unsuccessful candidates, and lie is having a straight-out duel with Mr Mollcride, who has made many friends. . The latter’s total . should show an increase on last election,' but Sir Mason’s showing should he better. Both' sides are confident, but the Reform candidate should win by 200 votes.

Mr Gilbert McKay captured the Hastings seat last contest against Labour and Reform, and ho is up against the same combination. Had Labour withheld its challenge Mr McKay would have succeeded again. Mr Campbell, who held the seat previously, .will poll well, and may just gain the decision from Mr McKay. Labour' need not he considered in the final figures. As previously, Sir George Hunter has but one opponent in Waipawa and may add another victory to his record, but a close result is indicated. . It would not be wise to be too' definite. In Pahiatua a few electors will decide the contest as it is expected to be Very exciting, with tho chances in favour'of Mr Ransom. Information from Gisborne, which includes a large part of tbe Hawke’s Bay province, suggests that Mr Lysnar will be returned.

SWINGING TO REFORM ELECTORS OF CANTERBURY SEVERAL CHANGES EXPECTED. (By Telegraph.—. Special to “Times/') CHRISTCirUItCIf, November 3. In Canterbury tho Nationalist and Labour parties have been making strenuouß oflorts to prevent, the Government from holding or winning seats in this provide®. There ia a general feeling, however, that the voting in Canterbury will reflect the general reeling t in New Zealand—that idle Chief necessity at the present time' is a strong and stable Government, under the only party which can sorlottuly defend the interests of the moderate majority against tho “Beds.” In Christchurch North an analysis of the polling at recent elections tdiows that the Reform Party is easily the largest of tho three, and in a three-cornered •fisrlit Hr Holland, the Government candidate, should win by a comfortable margin. lii Avon, Mr Dan Sullivan, who has won comfortably at tho last two elections. is seriously threatened by Mr Leadlcy, and it' tho anti-Socialiet vote is solid Mr Leadlcy will win, but the tnek of solidification, owing to the exertions ,of the Liberals, who mo doing their utmost to persuade the electors to voto against the Government at any cost, a difficult one, and Mr Sullivan nmy win by a small majority. In Christchurch South Mr Howard is likely to retain the seat. In Christchurch Lost Mr Armstrong wilt defeat Mr Dennchy.

The chances of Mr Kyle in Riccorton are thought not to bo so good as they were a month ago, but Ins polling at the lost election wan so good that it is difficult to believe he can I>© beaten. #

Lyttelton provides a most interesting contest. In 1022 Mr McCombs won by 600 votes from the Reform candidate. This year ho is opposed by n much more capable man, and he will lack that solid Prohibitionist support which saved him last time. It is generally expected that

Mr Lyons will win the seat for tho Government. Mr Forbes may be considered pretty safo in Huruuui, but his majority will be reduced. The contest in Ivaiapoi is triangular, and on this occasion tho Labour voto will be a solid one, whereas in 1922 most of it wont to tho Hon. D. Buddo, who even then scraped homo by a majority of GO in a poll of over TOO. Mr Brock, the Reform candidate for Ivaiapoi, is a weak man, but if the party’s support is solid fill- him ho will win the contest. In Ellesmere tlioV'Bing is likely to he very close. Mr David .tones entirely lacks that great iiersopal popularity which was a laego factor in the repeated victories of Sir Ifeaton Rhodes. Mr .Tones may, however, profit from the growing feeling in tho country that the real issue is between Reform and Labour. Mr Nosworthy should win fairly easily in Ashburton, and Mr Rolleston should hold his place in Timavu. In Temuka two popular, well-to-do farmers are fighting each other, and one cannot predict tho result with any certainly. •