THE NEW PARLIAMENT

New Zealand Times, Volume LII, Issue 12283, 31 October 1925, Page 5

THE NEW PARLIAMENT

PROBABILITIES OF CANDIDATES' SUCCESS ANALYSED

GOVERNMENT VICTORY PROBABLE

BATTLE RECOGNISED TO BE BETWEEN REFORM AND LABOUR

(By Telegraph'.—“Times’* Special Reporter.) NAPIER, October 29. With the last week of the election campaign now well under way, the prospects of parties and candidates are being freely discussed. Though there arc a variety of interests in the field, the principal battle is recognised as being between the Government Party and the Labour Party. The other sections whicE have entered the fight are the Nationalists, the Country Party, and a few independents. There are definite lines of cleavage between the Government Party and the Labour Party. The Labour Party stands for the elimination of all forms of defence and for nationalisation of the homes and holdings of the people. The Government Party, led hv Mr Coates, stands solid for adequate defence and for a freehold policy under which every man who has a home will be able to rail it his own. without fear of interference by the State. The Government Party stands for sound finance as a first essential of the State; for the development of the resources of the country on business lines; for equal opportunities to all and a total disregard of sectional interests. The Prime Minister, the Hon. J. C. <loates. has nearly eomnleted hi? New Zealand campaign. Wherever he has gene he lias ridden on a of personal popularity and pnhhr esteem, and there is not the slightest douht that the nieht of November 4t\.' w\T find him returned to oower with a majority greater than that he had when ho took up the leadership of tKe countrv a few months a"o ; INTERESTING SITUATION To begin at the north of the country, on© finds an interesting situation in the Bay of Islands seat, where the retiring member, Mr A. Bell, who is standing in the interests of the Government Party, is opposed hy four candidates, Nationalist, Labour, Country Party, and Liberal. Mr Bell’s most difficult opponent is expected to be Mr Sweeney, of the Country Party, but it is fully expected that tbe seat will not change Kands. In Marsden, Mr Murdoch is in grave danger of losing bis seat to Mr W. ♦Tones, who carried the Government banner, but the contest is open. Kaipara will plump solidly for the Hon. JT. G. Coates, and his friends will not he in the least surprised if his majority is a record. The contest there is a straigKt-out fight, and Mr Coates’s opponent is a Labour nominee. Mr W. E. Barnard. Mr A. Harris is expected to retain Waitemata for the Government, and, despite the fight which has been put no to shift him, ??ir Tames Parr is tinJikely to forgo his claim to represent Eden.

Auckland East, Auckland Central, and Auckland West seem likely to return their present Labour representatives, Messrs Lee, Parry, and Savage, but in Grey Lynn Miss Melville has an excellent chance of defeating Mr Bartram, who has sat in ‘Parliament as the nominee of the Labour Party. If Miss Melville is successful she will be the first woman to be elected to the New Zealand Parliament. Roskill is expected to stick to Mr Potter, and Parnell will giije Mr J. S. Dickson another big majority. In the Manukau electorate Mr John Massey, a brother of the Sate Prime Minister, is putting up an excellent fight against the Labour candidate, Mr Jordan, who sat in the last Parliament, and though the polling will he close it is quite on the cards that he will win. Franklin will stick to Mr McLennan, who won by such a huge majority in the by-election which followed Mr Massey’s death', and the Government will retain Raglan pud Tauranga also, per medium of the Hon. R. F. Bollard and Mr C. iE. Macmillan. At Thames, Mr T. W. Rhodes has three opponents, hut the indications are that he will hold the seat for the Government Party. Mr H. Poland, of course, will be very hard to beat in the. Obinemuri electorate, and the chances are that, he will be returned. He is! standing as an Independent. A close oontest is expected/ in Waitomo, where Messrs J. C. Rolleston (Government) and W. J. Broadfoot (Nationalist) are fighting wliat looks to he a verv even battle. Over in Gisborne the chances are that Mr W. D. Lysnar will be reelected. and if lib is he will he found supnorting the Government in essential matters. Mr K. S. "Williams wins the Bay of Plenty seat for the Government without the necessitv of a poll, no one thinking it worth wbile opposing him. Hamilton null retain the services of Mr .T A. Young (Government), and the Waikato seat, which was won by Mr F. Lye for the Liberals in 1922 on a big mnioritv vote, is almost certain to send Mr D. S. Reid to Parliament. Mr Reid «upnort,s the Government. Mr F. F. Hockly (Government) and Mr C. H. .Clinkard (Nationalist) are having an interesting contest, in which a couple of other candidates appear as side-issues, but the general opinion is that Mr Hockly will be returned. There is an excellent chance of the Hawke’s Bay seat returning to the Government. Mr H. M. Campbell being expected to defeat the retiring member, Mr G. McKay. Napier, which is not a Labour seat, probably will dispense with the services of Mr Mcllvrido and elect Mr J. Mason (Government).