PROGRESS OF THE WAR

New Zealand Times, Volume XLI, Issue 9526, 7 December 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Qf tho many references in the cable matter to tho * Cabinet "crisis, .the. most important is the announcement .that Me Bonar Law has boon “sent for.l’. Tho announcement, however, does not proceed to sSv that ill*'Bonar Law has been asked to form a Ministry, still less that he has agreed to make tho attempt. As the leader of the Opposition before the National Government was formed by coalition, Mr Bonar Law would under ordinary circumstances havo had the right to expect to be “sent for.” Under ordinary circumstances lie would have’ been, the loadm of a successful attack on the Govern ment of tile ;daT.~' But the, circumstances are not ordinary. Mr • Bonar Law, as tho leader of a powerful section of : the fijlen Coalition Govern-, raent. has ,a right to expeqt to bo, con-' suited, but there "is no precedent it. justify his appointment as Prime Minister. When a Coalition' Government which sits by obliteration of parties, falls tho righfeourso is to send for "tho best man, tho man most likely to give’vigour to the policy which broujght fthatff'tK icoalitioni That man i?-not: Mr-Bonar Law.- - Ho is a man of considefablecristinotion, who won his:’ way by sheer merit to the leadership of the Uniomsi. party, and he has shown great ability, patriotism, and aptitude ..during his tenure of office in, the Coalition Cabii not, i But ‘ personally -he cannot rank with,' Mr' Lloyd, George,' who has distiniguishbd'hihmelf ;mofe'.than any. man of Cabinet rank (now living) since tho war. .began! .By lug deeds MM his charapier ho Ims naturally thq first right. ;He has also the largest personal popullanty’of anj- man of Cabinet rank. Tho Unionist party-might vote solid for-Mr. Bonar Law’; but'there ts.roolil to doubt it! Mr Lloyd George would haVo. fill the Liberal votes, and most of the Labour votes. and a very large-prqportion-ol the Conservath-e votes. He IsTeally the only man m the House- wliO would command" tho - full * confidence of ..the House ami country... Neither the Bri-tish-public nor!the public of the QV.ei>. seas would see in Mr Bonar Law anything hut the,result of a political cabal. No’ Priraq Minister can command the public 'confidence who’’is not free from the suspicion of a political cabal. rr‘; —* ' * , . .•

’ Another "important crisis item js the statement that whoever is Prime Minister the 1 chndutst of the war must' bo lef t absolutely' to the Cdinmauder-ih-Chief-and the First Sea. Lord.. It means’.that'the war ought hot to he controlled by amateur., generals, and admirals. Pick your general and your admiral, approve them policy generally —it is. or ought to bo, a matter largely of. arrangement between the staffs of the Entente Powers—-place the means at their disposal, and judge them by results. If they fail, put- others in their' place. Above all avoid the indignity of commissions of, inquiry, and the, manufacture of scapegoats out Of, Ministerial material—a practice which throws infinite discredit on the conduct of affairs, and therefore destroys the confidence of all concerned without which no war can be brought to victory.

The point is very important, for it seems pretty plain that, in spite of all, the Entente superiority of man-power, industrial organisation, munitions, and warships, unless , there is unity ot thought and determination of thoroughness, the Entente Powers will lose the war, and the world will bs enslaved, ,

The paltering with the Greek situa tioii continues, for the representatives on tho spot report that a certain degree of order has been restored, and Lord Robert Cecil told the Commons that the Entente Powers have pumped up the utmost determination to exact vengeance; guarantees, what not, adding that tho situation involved military and naval considerations. It is the old gag. The situation has always involved military and naval considerations, the Powers have always been absolutely determined about every, thing, and they have always been satisfied with a certain degree of, order and the plausible explanations of certain people conveyed through officals whoso advancement depends on the Foreign Minister, who regards every man as an archangel, and if Satan came into his diplomatic fold would add him promptly to the list.

The answer of Lord Robert Cecil represents the old state of ■ things, which, according to the “Evening News,” is responsible for the whole of the outrageous blunders in Athens. The “News" is probably right in declaring that the nation will not submit to the inclusion of Asquith or Grey in the new Cabinet. But in the meantime we have the paltering. While the Secretary bleats to the House of the unalterable and tremendous determination of the Government and the Powers, Constantine, with his mask off, is hurrying his preparations with all the advantages the palterers have restored to him. It is said for them that they had to act diplomatically for fear of adverse criticism about their treatment of a neutral small State. But the point is here missed. The small State is not neutral, and never has been. Diplomacy would at any moment have been entitled to say to the small allegedly neutral State, “You have drawn the sword; you are handed over to the sword/’ It is quite possible that the gross inability to take that firm view may yet cost us General Sarrail’s army. Great thunder I We are dealing with people who go straight to the. point and do things. No amount of inflexible wordy determination will stop their great guns,

-and tho enveloping movements of their masses, with the great war machine ramping behind them. Serbia was this vKTtini of “inflexible determination,” ’ “promises of adequate force,” assurances of safety, conciliation, successful diplomacy. Serbia lies buried under' these make-believes. The way out was indicated by the Serbian Prime" Minister when_ there was ■'ample, 'time. But Sir Edward Grey “did not understand the .military situation.” Does he now understand the military situation, in Ronmania, Salonika, Monastic, Athens ?

Tim new Government ought to be formed soon, as every day adds to the power of Constantino and the soopo of German effort. . Serbia listened to our persuasion, Roumania heeded it, the Venizelists trusted it. Where aro they all now? It is a question which Berlin will answer with understandable and excusable, embellishments. But even without German explanation, no more neutrals aro in the least likely to play in our yard.

• * * The speech with which Enver Pasha opened Parliament yesterday may nr may not havo been a German concoction. - But-the Turks really require no prompting in tho art of swelling out their importance and power to impress the.world. They acquired the art through a long course of tortuous and impudent diplomacy what time certain western nations were “backing the wrong: horse,” while others were cynically waiting to trial;o use.of the Turk for their own benefit. There was monopoly of fine phrases on either side, but Germany got all the Turkish plums, as Enver Pasha’s speech reminds us. “Wo are going to send a vast expedi-tion-to Egypt for another assault - on the Canal; we are holding our own igainst the might of Russia in the Caucasus, and presently we shall tako back our own there;, we have sent troops to help our Allies in Galicia, in the Dobrudja,. and in Macedonia; and ;we have enough at homo for all pos sible requirement's.” That is the plain meaning of the speech, which will, of course, make every Turkish eye glisten : with- joy. Half of if is' boasting, of course, but the other half is seriously true, showing the. considerable part that Turkey, under German guidance. !is taking-in the battles-for the corridor, ’and proving the clearness of the Turkish vision which after Turkey declared war, realised that the Turks wo i fighting. for their lives.

’ Turkey will, of coarse, share the defeat ' of- the Central Powers. That is oue way to dismemberment. If they win, that-js another, for the German scheme'of Empire did not make the Baghdad railway for the Turks, in that case they -would have a minor place in the"stth, enjoying the pleasure of working for, Germany,. But all this is at present really academic.- The serious fact is that Turkey has mobilised over a million of men, and' they are swelling'this- German man-power mths war. Euvor Pasha’s speech makes that eery .plain.-, ,;Tlle effort of. Germany :to repair the disasters inflicted: by Brm siloff and to meet-the. Roumanian entry into the war, did not involve the immense- effort with - which Germany has been- credited. The German command had ' the help of hundreds of thousands of Turks. - , ,

A statement is made to-day that Roumania was forced into the war by an ultircatum—from Berlin. If; this is true it: means that' Borhn, relying on the Turkish and Bulgarian armies, in addition to its own' reserves, on the Russian plot for a- separato peace, flhd Oil .'Semi-sub'ierranean ■ efforts, determined to end the Balkan suspense -by forcing Koumania- to decide between' alliance.."with the Centra!Powers and the extermination that Berlin calculated to bo the certain results of tho arrangements made ....... .

‘ ", C'-f . ■,* • . ' Tt is by no means an unlikely story ; certainly A. very good guess. Tho Central Powers, :! it is true, expressed their surprise- at the, Roumanian declaration of war, and denounced the unexpected’ Treachery of Roumania in good set .terms, which appeared to be a great confession of diplomatic failure. But ’ that does not necessarily discredit to-day’s story. That story may be of the “ben trovat.o” order, but it certainly fits the facts of, the situation, which.. have only lately come into the full daylight. We see them better since , the dramatic exposure and suppression of the Prussian Ministerial plot. Enver’s speech adds to them, as docs the behaviour of Constantine.- " Moreover, this is not the first time that mention has been made. of an ultimatum to Roumania. Some weeks before the declaration of way, the dispatch of an ultimatum was specifically mentioned and discussed in the cable messages. The addition in to-day’s reference, that Roumania did not intend to come in until March next, certainly fits the fact that Russia was not ready with effective assistance, whatever may be its hearing on the preparedness of Roumania. As a matter of fact, Koumania was not prepared, for we are informed .to-day that munitions are only now being supplied to Roumania in adequate quantities. * * *

If w e readjust our perspective we can easily realise that the whole ivounianian episode was after all brought on by the initiative of Germany. Berlin declining to wait till all things were ready to make the Roumanian entry a telling blow. Whether' we should he justified in such a rearrangement of the perspective it is impossible to say wiMi certainty. But the facts undoubtedly lend themselves to the, new perspective, causing ;t to explain the extraordinary advantages obtained by the Central Powers in the Roumanian campaign. What is certain is + hat the Allies were not ready to help Roumania as she was entitled to he helped in consequence of her momentous decision. Roumania staked her all, and she h®s lost a good deal of it.

The campaign deep not, show any difference to-dav. Mackensen, who has taken ov,er the command (as reported, but not officially, as pressing the advance on Bucharest with great vigour, and is reported to have got his riant wing round to the east of the city. This is a mistake, apparently, for it is his left wing which has advanced to Targovistea, 20 miles east of Pitesti. He claims that be defeated the Russian and Roumanian forces in a great battle on the Argesh (Argesu), recovering ground on the south-west. This is m the Comana region, and as no names are mentioned the claim is not sustained. The other advance at Targovistea is near the nil fields, but th» distance. 20 miles, is insignificant. The statement that the enemr is within ringe of the hig guns of Bucharest anpenrs to iranly that the advance of x he German line i s checked. The add''tinnal statement that the enemv has taken hig stores of corn and other Supplies implies a reason, for the collection and disposal takes time. As the Germans speak of it as solving their food problem. it is probable that they have stooped to organise the new supply. At all events between the guns of Bucharest and the new food supply, the advance is not rapid.

The Russian report that the Roumanian retreat has got beyond Plocsti, twenty miles east of Pitosti, gives the retreat a"'Sore' 'decided character;" Ploesti is sixty miles north-west of Bucharest, and is in the Prahova Valley, in direct line with the Predeal Pass. Ono has to wonder whether this Russian account means that • the Roumanians have abandoned tho Predeal before the swing round of Mackensen’s left wing, co-operating with Falkenhayn’s advance from the north by the Predeal, which the Roumanians havo held firmly for many weeks past. If the advance has really brought them down here, then the main attack on Bucharest is from the north-west, by combination of the: loft wing of Mackenson with strong forces coming down the Predoal from Falkenhayn’s northern armies.' This explains why tho prospects for Bucharest are declared to bo black. :

The redeeming feature is that tho Russian army has effected a junction with the Roumanians -before Bucharest. The place.cannot fall, therefore, before another great battle,