The New Zealand Times. WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 1916. THE LAST PHASE

New Zealand Times, Volume XLI, Issue 9513, 22 November 1916, Page 6

The New Zealand Times. WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 1916. THE LAST PHASE

Though the last phase has come, no oho can foretell the date of the end of the war, not even the man who has told us that Lord Kitchener revised his famous estimate of three years. That “estimate,” hy the way, has a curious history, for Lord Kitchener never made any estimate about the end of the war. He only said that if' he and bis comrades in office were not at the head of affairs after three years others would have to carry on their work. The utmost that the great chief’s words can he said to have implied was that the war would not bo over in three years. And, if there is anything in the report of his state-, ment to a friend some little time before his death, he had altered his opinion owing to the development of the campaign, so far as to think that the war might end about a couple of months earlier than the period he has assigned as the minimum of its duration. His original statement very much startled the British public, which at the date of Lord Kitchener’s speech was in very optimistic mood. In the interval the stress of war has thrown the pendulum . over to the pessimistic so far that very many are ready to denounce what, using the term very loosely, may bo described as Lord Kitchener’s revised estimate as too optimistic. The question of t{re end of the war, however, still remains obscure. War is full of surprises, and, for example, one groat surprise is the power put forth by the enemy against Roumania, which is the cause of the dangerous situation of that country. This is the latest of the surprises of the war. Its predecessor was the recovery of Russia after the tremendous blow struck at the Donajec. That was a double surprise, first at the escape of tho Russian armies from destruction, next at the great improvement of the Russian equipment. The other surprises need not. be detailed. The retreat from Mens was a staggering surprise, the Marne was as great a surprise and more agreeable'. Ypres was a surprise of tho most unexpected, for it was the defeat of a tremendous force of the best troops of Germany by inferior forces whose inferior equipment ought to have ensured a disastrous defeat- Tho Dardanelles, Kut-el-Amara, the fall of Erzeroum, the Serbian disaster, were all surprises. Tho Balkan tangle inaugurated an era of surprises which is not yet over, the victories of Brusiloff were a colossal surprise, and the ultimate stand made against that general was equally astonishing. The entry of Roumama was a surprise, and as we have said the power put forth against that country was a surprise ol tho first order.. We may add that the German blunder at Verdun so long persisted in was a surprise, and that the Allied victories on the Somme were all surprises, as were the Italian victories in the Trentino and Carso sectors. The defeat of the first submarine piracy was a surprise to Germany certainly, and so were the failures of all the raids, all great disappointments to German expert expectation. The whole history prepares us for more surprises and demonstrates the futility of setting limits by prediction to a period of which the leading clement is surprise. One element of tho great surprise department, however, has been climi-

rated by the course of events. It is now pretty clear that there will be no German victory to surprise the world. Ultimate defeat of Germany is now certain. The surprises of the coming time may delay that defeat or they may accelerate ;t. Whether acceleration or delay,, who can tell? Germany is arranging for the latter, and preparing a revenge of frighttulness, as about the only thing likely to be gained by the prolonged fighting. The Lissauer outburst against Britain which characterised the first months of the war has, according to statements published yesterday in the newspapers, now found a systematic propaganda which is another surprise of the war. “The whole Church and the Navy League”

—the words are those of “a distinguished neutral” —“are keeping up a violent hate campaign by leaflets, sermons. Sunday school hymns, 'and newspaper articles and kiueiuas.” There is more, descriptive of the methods of this campaign. Who the distinguished neutral is, we do not, of course, know. But of the correctness of his evidence we can say that it tallies with all that has happened on the Gorman side since the “Hymn of Hate” became the rage in Germany. In a recent article we pointed- out the signs of Germany’s determination, and this evidence can well form part of the warning. We can see clearly now in. what temper the last phase of the war finds Germany. Germany’s submarine piracy and other horrors have prepared ns to realise that the final desperate effort of tho German strength is organised in a spirit of determined ruthlessness.

Speculation about the end of tho war is ■ not the way to meet this preparation. Equally useless is it to discuss the punishment of the malefactors who have shocked humanity in jiarsuanoo of German aggression. The use these crimes should be put to is to keep alive the determination to devote every energy to'the decisive winning of the war. Tho proceedings in the 'Russian Duma have _ struck tho very keynote. The War Minister, after detailing the’vast efforts of ■ tho nation and tho great victories of the national armies, proclaimed to the Duma: “We must, and shall, conquer.’’ The Duma took him up with beers, declaring that the war would be waged to the end; the Leader of the House declared that “the Duma desired nothing else and- .only as semCTed to- further' that object” ; the Czar “thanked them for their unanimous decision to sacrifice everything tor the sake of final victory”; and the Government sent messages to the Entente Powers, denying the “absurd rumours of secret Russo-German nego tiations with a view to ■ a separate peace, and giving- assurance of Russia’s intention to -fight the common enemy unfalteringly alongside the At lies till the final victory, and no hostile intrigue can weaken Russia’s irrevocable decision.” According to a correspondent whose statement we publish to-day, there was a disloyal proGerman .plot to make a sopevatc peace, a plot in which all the Ministers hut two are implicated, a plot which the generals at tho head of 4,000,000 men are against, as are the Russian people. That plot was frustrated by the Duma as aforesaid- That is the right attitude for tho last phase of the warThe colossal Russian Empire has given the example. It is for every State of the Entente Alliance to do like wise, and for every oversea Dominion of the great British Empire. One member'of the Duma spoke of a new internal peril in. Russia. IVp have seen how Russia has met it. The President of the Duma called for harmony, the absence of political barriers, and the, spirit of mutual concession. .That; is tho spirit in which all the nations and oversea Dominions must organise their supreme effort to win the war. Hie one thing that matters is victory. That one thing must he the object of concentrated effort.