PROGRESS OF THE WAR

New Zealand Times, Volume XL, Issue 9171, 11 October 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The Serbian messages drawing, together from all sides make it certain that the big Austro-Gorman offensive against Serbia has begun. A fifth groat front of war is . thus added to this campaign. It has impressed London, but not at all gloomily, as we may- judge from the rather jaunty statement of Colonel Repington, who declares that the Central Powers arc welcome to their Serbian dance if they want it at the; expense of their Eastern and Western fronts. . It is a fine way of saying that the Serbian dance is doomed to-be the dance-'-of German death. -■’VW’-.f: V l -' ; 'A, '"'T

An Australian writer is not so oheetful. Ho cries “Beware!’’ and he adjures Australians to : take note- of the monstrous expedition that has just moved against the Serbian frontier, bound for Sues! Canal, Mesopotamia, and Northern India. It is one of the commonplaces of- the situation, that the Kaiser has long entertained the idea of a great Empire of the East. It has been his guiding star for. yearns But to start on the conquest- in the middle of a struggle on fronts of 1500 miles with the armies of four-of the strongest Powers in Europe is' a little too much to take fori granted. Nevertheless,whatever i the ultimate hope may be, the immediate object,is plain enough. It is to break' through the Balkans in order to raise the siege of the. -Dardanelles. If -that is obtained the rest will be a dream like other dreams that have been dreamed by heroes ancient and -modern, - The, immediate object is, however, quite, serious enough to claim the very closest attention. ¥ • • •

AVhat the forces are which have been —beyond all peradventure—launched against Serbia it is impossible to say. Aviators who have flown across the flanube to reconnoitre have conic back with the report that they do not exceed 100,000 men. If that bo correct* it is hot conclusive, because the Central Powers have armies from which, if they choose, they can send by rail in a few days whatever forco they please. Estimates have been made of very large forces,- differing as to particular numbers, hut agreeing on the point of great size. The reports of various attacks on the boundary rivers show a wide front, and therefore warrant the belief that the forces are large. Tho character of, the fighting, which was severe, leaves little doubt on- tho point. • • • The Belgian accounts claim that the rivers have been crossed and Belgrade practically captured. The Serbians question the crossing at points where they say fighting is in progress, and admit it at others, where they declare they have penned the enemy to the river brink, with enormous loss of men. In other words, the enemy has crossed at certain . places, and has ' not been able to get beyond his bridgeheads. Tho German allegation of the capture of most of Belgrade is met by tho Serbian . statement that the vanguard which advanced into Belgrade was one-half destroyed and.onehalf captured. A London _ report throws some light on this with tho statement that the British naval guns are still defending Belgrade.

The enemy winds up his report'with the statement that the Serbians are retreating south. Now, the manner of those British guns in the report is suggestive. They are naval guns, and they are “still defending.” It looks as if the Serbian commander is protecting his retreat by the use of the heaviest guns ho has, which )will continue their work until the r; main divisions have got well away. leaving strong rearguards to bring away the guns, which wc presume are all mobile. V • • .1 The two previous campaigns in Serbia began with the retreat of the Serbian armies into the hill country south of Belgrade, the-enemy columns crossing the frontier rivers on both sides of Belgrade, and pursuing from the Drina on one eido and up the valley of the Morava on the other. This valley is reported to he flooded at present. The railway to Nish follows it for some distance. The ' enemy, in order to continue his _advance, -has to leave his railway facilities'and use the country roads, which are not good. On the earlier occasions, the Serbians had prepared positions in the hill

country, and with their help and. some brilliant manoeuvring of their troops, utterly routed the enemy, exhausted, by his march, and without. the big supply of munitions and provisions on which his success depended.

It seems probable that these tactics are being repeated. The original intention of the enemy Vas to use the Bulgarian array for an attack, on the Serbian rear, while his troops moved against their front. 1 But this game has been spoiled by the landing of Allied troops at Salonika. These have lost'no time in marching to the help of the Serbians, and they have saved the railway.line of the Vardar—Salonika to Nish—from, attack of the Bulgarian troops—Comitadjis—which had advanced, with orders to destroy the same. This seems a proof that the Bulgarian staff has given up the idea definitely of attacking the Serbians in the rear. • * •

The question at onco arises of tho strength of the defence in this direction. -The reports from Athens—after giving a graphic account of the. landing and its diplomatic-military preliminaries—give the strength landed by Thursday last at 32,000 men, adding that the landing was proceeding two days later. Wo may suppose that the landing has proceeded at tho original ■rate, and is still proceeding. So that there should be 60,000 more troops on the ground by this time. There must be a .considerable force ; - otherwise troops would not. have been, sent forward to the Serbian lines. The duty of the expedition is as described by the officer who apprised the Greek Government of tho operation, to help the Serbian army to resist the Austro-Gorman invasion and to maintain its communications with the sea. Had its strength been limited to 32,000 men, it would have .been manifestly unequal to this duty; in the face of the Bulgarian Convention with the Germanic Powers to take the Serbian army in the rear. Tho Bulgarian numbers could have overwhelmed the expedition.: The inference from the fact that the]; expedition has moved forward, and reached Serbian territory, amid’ the acclamations of the inhabitants, that: the expedition is very much stronger than i the reported strength of the landing of Thursday, appears to us to bo incontrovertible. .

Another question , arises.. -It-is of the intention of the Greek Government; That Government is pledged by treaty with Serbia to defend that State in case of attack by its neighbour Bulgaria. It did not . help, -Serbia • against- the :. two Austrian attacks earlierin the war, a fact which shows that the treaty did not contemplate help against all attacks, but only from attack- from one particular direction, namelyj from Bulgaria. Now an Allied army is marching to the relief of the Serbians, who are defending their country against an Austro-German invasion; If that army is attacked on * route by a Bulgarian force, it follows that such attack must ho an attack on Serbia. It would certainly be an interference with the Serbian defence, and a . serious -hindrance of the,-same. That would justify the advance of a Greek army against Bulgaria',. in accordance with the GrecoSerbian treaty of alliance. Wo have said that the number of the Allied troops: engaged in helping the Serbian army is very probably far greater than the 32,000 of the Athens report. The add ition of .a Greek army would - make the defence against any Bulgarian attacks . overwhelming. . It is probable that the Bulgarian commander has not more than 250,000 to dispose of, and that, .whatever his strength may be, he has to keep some of it to resist the Russian arraythat before, long -may bo expected to invade, Bulgarian territory. Moreover, there is for him tho need to keep an eye on Roumanian which State has just repeated refusal; to permit munitions to pass over Roumanian territory into - Bulgaria,' As the Greek commander, in tho event of hostilities, could dispose of not less than . 250,000 men, it is evident that between the Allied forces- and the Greeks interference just now would he for Bulgaria a proposition altogether too tough.

Should- tiro Austro-German- invasion; beat' down- tho Serbian resistance, tho face of things would, of course," change. In that case, it is very probable that the Bulgarian ; army would - dash- in. But for the moment the Bulgarian commander;; has transferred his troops fromtho Greek, to the Serbian border. He is waiting to see what will happen. Perhaps his hope is that until something happens Greece ;will follow his example and wait also. *■ • • Tho point is that, he probably thinks he has not given Greece the opportunity for taking action, under the treaty. The question how is whether that attack of the CoJnitajis: on the 1 railway was an attack on Serbia in terms of tho Greco-German treaty. And,, first, wo have to be certain that the report of that attack was true, 'or was it merely one of the rumours that fly on occasions of great : excitement such as this., The lino of reasoning we have followed with regard to the action of Bulgaria inclines us to doubt tho story of the Comitaji attack on the railway. If such attack was made it will probably he followed by a Bulgarian apology and offer of redress, plus a promise to make irrepressible factionists- behave better in future. '

• • « If nothing follows, tie story, wo shall have, this position: the ’ Serbians and the Allies may bo left to fight it out with tho Austro-German invasion, while both Greece and Bulgaria -keep careful watch to see how the -cat jumps. In case the cat jumps - the wrong way, the position would be awkward perhaps for the Allied forces heavily pursued by. a victorious, powerful enemy. Hero wo have the reason for the outcry of . a Paris journal, which insists on putting presure. on Greece to declare her intentions—“ Are you for us or against us?” There.is no official hint, of : this. _ But the situation is so obvious that in all probability tho whole official world —diplomatic, political, military, and naval —is whispering wha-fc that journal is: proclaiming from the housetops of Paris.

It is, of course, clear that the situation requires imperatively that Greece must bo brought to a definite understanding. Bulgaria, is ■ now virtually at war with the Entente Powers, and is ranged on the side of thevTriplice whose-officers are in'command her armies- The Triplicc is’ attacking Serbia; Bulgaria being of -the' Triplice is therefore attacking Serbia; ergo, the Greco-Serhian treaty hinds Greece to throw her troops into the struggle. They may not be used in the impending 'battles ■ on Serbian; soil; it may be best to keep them in reserve as the Bulgarian troops are kept in reserve.

But it must be on the, side of the Entente. There is power of -compulsion. The. Entente has a fleet hard by, which could speak with effect to Greece should the time come for. the Greek troops to join in stemming the tide of the enemy invasion. With that lever there should bo no difficulty in securing the adhesion of Greece.

These considerations show that the pressing need for the Allies is not only to engage or balance - tho Bulgarian .army, but also to rush further forces into Serbia. They tiro fighting the battle for the Dardanelles, the main feature; of which has now become a powerful side thrust from ffie Germanic Powers. With an eye on Bulgaria, and a iband on Greece, the Allies want every man and gun and shell they can rush into Serbia to stop this formidable side thrust.. They can do tho stopping without weakening their western front, for there are troops to spar© iiv Italy* wixoro the frontier defences are now absolutely safe.' ■ ■■ v ? , ■> On the West front, - fortunately, at this critical moment, things are going very well with the Allies. The Gorman forces have countered in great force, against the French and British positions captured from them in the recent great advance, and they have been repulsed with great slaughter, showing tho groat strength of tho munitions the Allies now,command, as well as the magnificent character of their soldiery. All positions - maintained, Sir John French -reports, and the main strength of tho German second liho m Champagne captured - and - held commandingly—is the gist of the French reports. The whole position on the West is so lively that great events may be looked for at any moment. . • • • In this connection wo find tho possibilities from a bombardment by monitors of the Belgian coast discussed this morning by a .competent naval writer. Mr Pollen, with Whose writings readers of “Land and-WaterV, 1 -. -are familiar, after describing these vessels as so con- 1 structed as to “defy mines and 'torpe 7 does,” i and carrying guns “capable of coping with, the German coastal batteries,* ’ adds, “The Gormans, are- much alive to the danger of a landing on a grand scale following up these bombardments.” The other day we conjectured,- that 1 such landing on a., grand scale might have been the reason for the- forty-eight-liour.i,suspension, of. the telegraph facilities;, There has been no landing- But to-day w.o are glad to ,sce that a - high expert, who is in the thick Of things, regards, such a* landing ■ on a gVeat scale as wcU -within . the possibilities. . Obviously ,'a . powerful army placed' in the rear of the' German line would quickly, brjng about decision. • • •' ■The news from the East- front affords further proof that the munitions problem has been sufficiently solved in Russia to enable-the Russian armies to meet the German on equal terms. .This with the immense increase of the personnel of the Russian armies, should be a solemn warning -to - the Germanic Powers. But, we have from, the Petrograd correspondent-of a London paper the statement: “That there is plenty of proof that the Germans are digging themselves in, with intention to utilise their armies on other fronts.” The facts reported to us' from both fronts tend to prove that on neither front can ‘ tho' enemy -afford such -utilisation.; They rather support Colonel j„ Ropington’s stateraentr-rvirtually .a challenge that, if. lie-chooses to .risk it, the enemy is perfectly welcome to his Ser- ■ bian dance.