WILL THE WAR SPREAD?

New Zealand Times, Volume LXXVI, Issue 5288, 28 May 1904, Page 11

WILL THE WAR SPREAD?

AN AMERICAN VIEW. The awful humiliation to which Rus. sia will be subjected (writes "Harper’s Weekly”) should she be decisively beaten by an Oriental power, which she has affected to despise will, unquestionably, prompt her to seek revenge. Sooner than assent on her kneea to any terras that the Japanese victor might see fit to impose, she would accept her share of a wprld-wido disaster, and see all the great naval powers involved in the Far Eastern conflict. Should she, therefore, be beaten on land, as she has already been beaten at sea, she is likely to spare no effort to gain the active aid of France and Germany. Both of the last-named powers co-operated, it will bo reiriemberod, with Russia in 1895 to extort from Japan a retrocession to China of the Liao-tung peninsula, a retrocession quickly followed by a long lease of the coveted tongue of land to Russia. At that time, however. France and Germany had oh. tained from tho British Foreign Office assurances that Lord Rosebery, then Premier would not uphold Japan in a refusal of thoir demand. The situation at the present time is. obviously very different. A treaty exists between England and japan, which binds; the former party to assist the latter in the- event of Russia’s securing support from a first-rato European power. Now, although' France, Germany, and Russia might have ventured to confront Great Britain on tho ocean in 1895. when Russia ranked as the third naval power on earth, while Japan’s strength at sea was looked upon as a negligible quantity, it is obvious that the case to-day is materially altered. France and Germany have already built, or are building, 61 battle-ships, against a British total of 63 battle-ships. In respect of armoured cruisers. Great Britain is very much superior to both FTance and Germany united. Moreover, Great Britain at this juncture would not be fighting alone, for she would have tho co-operation of the active and victorious navy of Japan. On the other hand, France and Germany could derive no assistance for the moment from Russia’s depleted ’ and discredited fleet. In a word, no naval es-iH-r: would dismite the preponderance on the ocean, under existing circumstances, of a British-.! apanese coalition to a belated combination of Russia France, and Germany. Wo hardly need add that if the navy of the United States were cast into the scale of the British and Japanese allies, the war-resscla of Franco and

Germany would bo gunk, captured, or driven from the sea. We assume, therefore that only with extreme reluctance would Franco or Geimany now enter upon a struggle which. «*>« Russia's part, has boon so grievously mismanaged, and from which neither of thv first unmet! powers could hone for anything but maritime disaster. Neither .u Combes, the French Premier, nor M. Dc-Icassc, tiie Minister ter Foriegn Affairs, makes any secret of his personal unwillingness to be swept into the Far Pattern, vortex. So intimate, however, are the financial, political, and sent!-* mental relations of France to Russia that a popular upheaval might at _ any moment subvert the .exteting Cabinet, and substitute a Ministry committed to the Immediate succour of the Czar. The money lent by France to Russia during the last decade is variously computed at from one billion four hundrec- million dollars to two billion dollars. Tho bankers through whom that stupendous sum was lent would do almost anything to avert a suspension of interest. We krow how grave an effect was produced on French national sympathies during our war with Spain, bv the relatively insignificant loans that had been made hi Paris to the Madrid Government. It is . moreover, only fair to say that the misapprehensions of on unoasy creditor do not constitute the solo bas-is of ITonch sympathy for the Czar. But for Hie friendship of the Russian sovereign. Fiance would have stood for many years, and would now be standing, in helpless and hopeless isolation, at- tho mercy of the Triple Alliance. Every decent Frenchman is keenly alive to tho knowledge (hat to (ho Czar is duo the rehabilitation of his country in its own eyes and in the eyes of tho world. For France to evince ingratitude to Russia would be at onco base and short-sighted*, and for that reason wo find it difficult to believe (hat she would turn her back upon the Cznr if a demand for her assistance should bo imperatively made. It is true that on February 20th the Combes Government was upheld by a majority of 77 in the Chamber of Deputies in its refusal to discuss the whole question of the Russian-Japanese war, but there were some omnious incidents in the course of tho debate. M. Firman Faure, a Nationalist member, assailing bitterly M PeUctan, tho ALi winter of Marine, and M. Doumer, formerly Governor-General M Tndo-China. and now president of the Budget Commission, threatening to undertake an independent, investigation of the present condition of the navy. M. Doumer, who is one of the most outspoken and influential sympathisers? with Russia in the* French Chamber, is known to bo (he author of the article published ‘recently in tho "Figaro/' which revealed for tho first time Russia’s? offer (o join with- Franco in a war against-England at the time of the Fashoda affair. It is, in a word, on Paris that the eyes of onlookers who desire to soo the war localised should bo fixed; for there may be witnessed at any moment an outhurst of pro-Russian sentiment that will drive, not only France but England, and, eventuallyhalf of Eurppe, into’ the Far Eastern contest.