RUSSIA’S MENACE.

New Zealand Times, Volume LXXV, Issue 5009, 6 July 1903, Page 4

RUSSIA’S MENACE.

31. de Witte, the Ozar’s Finance Minister, and a most able exponent of Rnssian polity, recently made a pregnant remark bearing -upon Muscovite alms in Asia. “History,” bo -said. “will regard tho construction of the Chinese Eastern railway as tho completion of a great work, and ono of tho last steps in Russia's inarch to tho open sea in the Far East, the goal of her ambition.” This “march to tho open sea” has been tric'd, time and again, in various directions; hut has hitherto been baffled. Is it now fated to succeed? For many years Russia strove for an outlet to tho sea through the Dardanelles and tho Sea of Marmora. England blocked that purpose. Russia attempted to control tho Persian Gulf, and again England barred tho way. Now sho would dominate tho waters of tho Pacific from Port Arthur and Vladivostock. To accomplish this intention she must pass the fortified islands of Tsushima and Ikii, at the southern entrance of the Sea of Japan. Russia is as closely imprisoned in these waters as sho is in tho Black Soa or tho Persian Gulf, for her only outlet is a narrow strait dominated by Japanese guns,ships and forts. To get around this difficulty Russian agents are intriguing to secure a permanent foothold in Manchuria, and in her schemes she is aided by tho weakness and duplicity of the Chinese Government-

Fifty-two Russian warships aro now, according to cable advices, assembled at Port Arthur,while British, Japanese and American men-of-war aro concentrating in tho north of tho Gulf of Pochili, Those aro ominous signs, and in a very short time tho guns may bo thundering and the future of Chiua will be decided in stern combat. Japan, it is reported, is addressing a protest to tho Russian Government on tho subject of tho continued occupation of Manchuria, which is contrary to convention and in violation of repeated promises of evacuation. Groat Britain and tho United States some weeks ago protested to tho, Chinese'Government against the compliance of the latter with the demands of Russia; but so far as wo know, no direct protest has yet been sent to tho Russian Government. Agents of tho American and Japanese Legations at Pekin were some time ago sent to Manchuria to report on the way in which Russia was carrying out tho convention. Those agents returned with the report that tho letter of tho convention was being fulfilled, .but that its spirit had boon violated throughout. The Russians had, indeed,evacuated Mukden and Newchwang, but their soldiery had moved no farther than tho gates of those cities. They had doffed their military uniforms and put on the livery of railway employees. They were out of tho cities, it is true, but they were still in Manchuria. It is firmly believed by many well-in-formed people that Russia will not evacuate Manchuria unless under compulsion, and the question is, How will this compulsion be exercised? Will the moral pressure of Japan, Britain and America have to be followed by a war-like demonstration P From present appearances, it looks as though this might happen. Russia is, however, astute enough to avoid taking the offensive in any way that could be construed as a joint attack by her and China upon Japan. By the terms of tho Anglo-Japanoso Treaty, his Majesty’s Government undertakes to assist the Mikado, in tho event of the latter being attacked by any two Powers. In a war between Russia and Japan single-handed, there is no obligation upon Britain to aid. her ally; bub it is nob conceivable that sho would stand by and see Japan defeated and crushed. There is a possibility that Russia’s breach of the Manchurian Convention will be made a “casus belli” and that the three Powers whose fleets aro assembled in the Gulf of Pechili will together fight for the upholding of obligations and tho maintenance of an “open door” in China. It is evident that diplomacy has said all but its last word in the quarrel, and that unless the Russians evacuate Manchuria in reality, the war-cloud that has for some time boon gathering will buret, and there will bo a lifo-and-death struggle for the mastery of the Northern Pacific. That such a struggle will bo fought with vital consequences to Australia and New Zealand is undoubted. For tho safety of these colonies, and for the good of the world at large, it is essential that Russian pretensions in tho Pacific should be promptly and effectually checked.