TOPICS OF THE WEEK.

New Zealand Mail, Issue 1746, 23 August 1905, Page 41

TOPICS OF THE WEEK.

The issue of peace or war hangs in the

balance, with the scale trembling towards a decision in favour of a continuance of the colossal conflict now proceeding in Manchuria between the Russian and Japanese forces. Neither the repeated reverses on land nor the decisive naval disaster of Tsushima has sufficed to convince Russia that she is beaten; and this dogged quality, which Napoleon attributed to the British, will undoubtedly tell should! a prolongation of the war result. “Not one kopeck’ 1 will the Russian representatives agree to pay by way of reimbursement of Japan’s war expenses, and he also objects to the condition that proposes to limit the sea-power of the Czar in Eastern seas. The final struggle between the plenipotentiaries at the conference is to commence to-day on these two questions; and a® there seems little to choose between the two sides in the matter of their resemblance to “wooden images,” it seems probable that the negotiations will be broken of|, despite the .utmost endeavours of Britain, France, and the United States to bring about agreement. It will bo deplorable if this should happen, for the world is becoming sick of tales of slaughter and suffering, and would be glad to see peace concluded on honourable terms. A settlement on the terms proposed to be accepted by Russia would probably ensure a state of tranquility in the Far East for a decade at least; and before the combatants were ready to re-engage matters might be so adjusted that a further appeal to force would be unnecessary. The cession of Saghalien to Japan and of Manchuria to Oiiina, if accompanied by substantial guarantees, would restore an equably balance. One the guarantees essential is the payment of Japan’s war outlay, by Russia; and if that were agreed to, Russia might well be spared the humiliation of having her maritime policy of the future dictated by Japan. It is interesting to recall that the late M. Paul Lesear, formerly Russian Ambassador at Pekin, stated in 1902 that he returned to die at his post in Pekin on account of Manchuria. He said:—“lt is not for Manchuria I must go back; it is to get rid of Manchuria. That last service I hope to render Russia before I die. I could not rest in peace if I felt I had failed to do what I can to save Russia from the suicidal folly of retaining Manchuria. Arrangements there must be, of course, before the evacuation, but I regard its evacuation as a matter of life and death for Russia.” To a question, Was he afraid of war ? M. Uessar made answer: “It is not war so much I fear as the attempt to extend our frontier so as to include a vast territory peopled by millions of Chinese whom we have neither the administrators to govern, the soldiers to control, nor the money to spare for their government.” He added that ho believed M. Witte was strong for evacuation. So was Count Ifamsdorff. So, he believed, was the Czar. “Against us we have the army, with Kouropatkin at it® head. He is believed to be in favour of retaining everything now in our possession. But,” ooncluded M. Lessar, “it is madness-—suicidal madness.” It has cost Russia much in men, and money to realise the madness _of her ambition with regard to Manchuria; and now that she has renounced that dream, she still clings to the desperate hope of establishing herself as a great naval Power in the Eastern Pacific.

PEACE OB WAB?

It is pointed out by an English. contemporary that the war has had disastrous results, so far as Russian industries are concerned. After a long struggle with untoward conditions, the producing and manufacturing industries of Russia experienced a revival in 1903, and gave hopes of enduring prosperity being established. The war, however, shattered all such hopes. A gfeat war, of course, always produces a strong demand for arms, ammunition, -ships, railway material, clothing, provisions, etc. ; all of which have to be delivered at short notice and in large quantities. In consequence, the works which the Government "entrusts with such contracts become very busy; but whether tliis pressure of work materially benefits them is another . question. . Exceptional conditions generally go with contracts arising out of such exceptional circumstances. The shortness of time at the disposal of the works often necessitates the extension of plant and

EFFECTS ON HESSIAN INDUSTRIES.

the erection of new buildings, and the pressure for delivery often compels the •works to obtain plant from abroad, which again means such heavy costs that the profits on the contracts cannot, as a rule, cover them. Another bad effect of the war has been the closing of large districts, as Siberia and the Far East, both for the selling of manufactured goods and the purchase of raw materials;. ■ The operation of conscription lias <3eplotod the ranks of the producers and other workers, while the internal disaffection has led to many strikes and riots, with consequent dislocation of trade. Failure of crops has produced a condition hordering on famine in some districts, and there are no signs of a better state of things prevailing for a considerable time to come. What will be the result of the continuance of a costly and unpopular war is not, therefore, difficult to picture.

The commerce and industries of Japan

have not suffered to the same extent as a result of the war. Since hostilities broke out, Japan has practically had command of the neighbouring seas, so that her. foreign trade has not been much inconvenienced by the enemy’s cruisers; and she has thus been able to extend that trade which was in a thoroughly healthy condition when the war broke out. Nature, moreover, has come to- her assistance with very abundant crops; the yield of rice and silk, indeed,: has been higher than ever. Taking the production of rice, for instance, we find that ten years ago it averaged about 300,000,000 bushels per annum, whereas last year it amounted to 264,000,000 bushels. Owing to these circumstances, Japan bore the strain of the first twelve months?’ war with remarkable ease. Her foreign trade last year reached a level, hot only in imports but also in exports, considerably higher than that of any previous year. Undoubtedly particular industries have suffered, notably the silk manufactures for the home market, and the smaller producers and traders have many of them felt the pinch of restricted credit; but the year has passed without, any failures of importance. On the other hand, many industries, particularly farming and silk manufactures for the foreign market, as well as those industries which have helped to supply the war’s requirements, have enjoyed a period of great prosperity. It has been the policy of the Government to purchase as much as passible in Japan—it has been asserted that 70 per cent, of the war expenditure has been spent at home—and there are many examples of straggling industries which have been built up into successful concern® by the large demands- on their capacity.

HOW JAPANESE IBADE IS AFFECTED.