The N. Z. Mail PUBLISHED WEEKLY. WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 16, 1905. THE SITUATION IN EUROPE

New Zealand Mail, Issue 1745, 16 August 1905, Page 41

The N. Z. Mail PUBLISHED WEEKLY. WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 16, 1905. THE SITUATION IN EUROPE

The relations of the Powers of Europe are at present absorbing in interest and big with possibilities. Norway and Sweden have just been divorced, and the event, as we formerly pointed out, is not without significance in European affairs. Advices received by mail show that, in June last, Norwegian warships were for weeks under orders to have steam always up, and no leave- was granted to officers or men, while- on shore the forts on the Swedish frontier were fully manned, and soldiers were being exercised in skirmishing and vol-ley-firing. The Government of Norway had also purchased two new cruisers from the Japanese, who no longer need all their warships to keep the command of the seas. It was not thought, however, that there was danger of war between Norway tyid Sweden unless other interested Powers fomented trouble to serve their own ends. The present condition of Austria-Hungary is calculated to stimulate the aspirations of the German Emperor to become the dictator of Europe. This dual monarchy has scarcely ever been without a political crisis. The reign of Francis Joseph, which rose amid revolution, is evidently about to set in dissolution, for, as the Magyars and Germans once regarded as their supreme duty the holding of PanSlavism in check, they are now not only neglecting national aims, hut quarrelling among themselves. Amid this

“warring of elements” the throne of Francis Joseph may be quivering to a fall. In such a contingency, the Kaiser may be trusted to extend his territorial boundaries, and absorb that portion of Austria-Hungary largely populated by the German race. The social and political conditions now prevailing in Russia would prevent her from taking action to check German aggrandisement in Austria; and this weakness on the part of Russia seems to offer a favourable opportunity for the prosecution of the Kaiser’s aims. Russia is, indeed, hardly able to adequately defend or retain her Baltic provinces, and the course oi events may render their absorption easy to Germany, and agreeable to their distressed inhabitants. Further invasion has just been made upon the liberties of the people of Finland, and our cablegrams recently announced that twenty thousand Finns had protested against the proposal to transfer the trial of political offenders from the local authorities to Russian military courts. What is certain to intensify the revolutionary spirit abounding in the Czar’s dominions is the announcement which was made on Wednesday that Russia proper is in danger of being devastated by the ravages of famine. Thus on two sides Germany may be able by the arts of diplomacy, and without striking a blow, to embrace in one move the whole of central Europe, and double her population. The relations of Germany with France, and her attitude towards Great Britain, constitute to-day the most interesting features of European politics. Apart from the fanatical war party, led on by Dr Schiemann, Germany does not desire a quarrel with either France or England ; hut certain recent utterances and actions in relation to the Republic have been provocative of unfriendly feeling. It is avowedly the purpose of Germany to keep Great Britain and France an art, and while attempting to accomplish this she aims at reducing both Russia and France to diplomatic impotency. Over the Moroccan affair Germany was able to secure the resignation of the ablest statesman Fiance has had for two generations, and at the same time to secure concessions from Morocco to which she was not entitled, but which she exacted as a solatium for the slight of not having ' been consulted when France, with the sanction of Great Britain and Spain, would have settled the Moroccan difficulty. lii a reeeut speech, Prince von Bulow voiced the opinion that “Germany’s relations with Great Britain are at present more unpleasant than they have before been in the history of the two countries” ; but it cannot be said that Great Britain has provoked - feelings of antagonism, and by the visit of King Edward to Kiel lastyear the insult offered to Great Britain by the famous Kruger cablegram was virtually pardoned,and would have been forgotten but for repeated efforts on the part of German Anglophobes to explain that it meant not an alliance against England, but rather a colonial agreement directed against the progressive anglicisation of Africa. The visit of the French fleet to Portsmouth, and the exchange of courtesies between Vice-Admiral Caillard and Sir A. K. Wilson, together with the speech of King Edward, will tend to further cement the Anglo-French “ entente,” while it will quicken the jealousies of the Germans and nullify the designs of the Kaiser to dominate French diplomacy. Leaders of French public opinion are fully alive to the intentions of the German Emperor. In a recent article in the “ Economiste Franeais,” M. Paul Leroy-Beaulieu observes that “ Germany aims at making France her subordinate, reducing her to the position of a satellite, moving in an orbit around Germany, following her inspiration and her direction.” This is an exorbitant pretension which France will never permit ; and so another French publicist, M. Delafosse, in the “ Echo de Paris,” strongly advocates a defensive alliance between Great Britain and France, and declares that “ France is the obligatory antagonist- of Germany’s monstrous expansion of power since 1870.” It is, however, possible that the Kaiser may discover that the friendliness of England and France is essential to his being able to give effect to the grand pan-Germanic aggregation in Central Europe; and putting aside the irritating influences of Anglophobism in Germany and of anti-German feeling in England, there are no real obstacles in the way of a tripartite treaty. If the

Kaiser will, on the other hand, ostracise himself by his warlike and boastful utterances from the society of peaceful nations, then the good feeling engendered by such speeches as were made in Portsmouth on Tuesday will strengthen the existing “ rapprochement,” and make for the lasting peace of-Europe. The French are jubilant at the heartiness of the English reception to their fleet; the English are reciprocal, no doubt; while American journals, with characteristic confidence, consider that the world’s peace is assured. We trust that is so. The immediate effect of the French fleet’s visit to Portsmouth will, however, convince Germany that any attempt to destroy the Anglo-French “ entente ” would he futile : and France, having recovered her self-possession, will he able, relying on the moral support of Great Britain, to maintain her, dignity in the Moroccan negotiations, in which Germany’s part, after the Portsmouth demonstration, may be expected to be less aggressive and, domineering.