A NEW MARKET AND ITS COST.

New Zealand Mail, Issue 1193, 11 January 1895, Page 4

A NEW MARKET AND ITS COST.

It has been somewhat hastily declared in Wellington that the Anglo-Japanese Treaty ■does not affect the colonies in any way. The opinion is not the opinion of English journalists, and it is not correct. The treaty, as a matter of fact, affects the colonies very largely, if not vitally. On one side it offers them a market of forty millions of people, who are described as having " a wholesome taste for mutton," which taste is said to be growing at a rapid rate. It is a market, moreover, which with judicious handling may be induced to adapt itself to the wool of Australasia, the growers of which " are just now disappointed at the continued exclusion of their staple from American ports, in spite of the free tariff. This is a very important consideration in view of the uncertainty of the American position, emphasised on Saturday morning by the news that the leaders of the Republican majority in Congress intend to take the earliest opportunity to attack the free wool tariff, and restore the McKinley schedule. If Mr McKinley is the next President, and if there is, before the election of the next Congress in four years, no popular reaction, the days of free wool are numbered in the j United States. So far, however, free wool has not been able even to help us to the extent of stopping the downward tendency of prices. Now in Japan, so far as is . known outside, there are no prejudices against the commodities of the foreigner. They may, probably will, prefer to manufacture wooi for themselves, to importing the product of the Bradford factories. But when once they take to wool-wearing, against which there is no prejudice, thev will take the raw material freely. It matters to the grower considerably, because in the case of direct supply of the raw material the wool will have to pay the cost of only one short voyage, instead of the expense of two very long ones. In this connection it is a very important consideration that the Japanese people, when once they begin to take to a new thing, are very quick in extending its use. A people who after a short thirty years of [European civilisation can point to a numerous corps of native bacteriologists —three reported for the British Governor of Hongkong' the other day on the bubonic plague there —will not take many years to get

accustomed to woollens on a large scale. Silver, again, is a great commodity in Japan, and the Broken Hill mines are not as profitable as they were, because silver has fallen.

On the other hand, the Anglo-Japanese treaty imposes conditions. The spirit of these recognises the fact of the absolute equality of the contracting parties. The treaty, in fact, admits, or, rather, proposes to admit, Japan to perfect equality in all things. At present Japan stands on the treaty level of inferior nations. She is restricted to a small limit of, Customs duty, and she has to submit to the existence of foreign tribunals for the trial of foreign offenders against the laws of Japan. On the other hand, the number of ports open to the foreigner is limited, as are his rights of residence, travel and labour. Under the new treaty the consular tribunals are to be abolished, every port is thrown open, Japan is given the rights of every Power at each, and the territories of both sides, are opened as unreservedly to each other's subjects as are the territories of all other nations in the comity of the civilised world. "Full liberty to enter, travel, or reside in any portion of the dominions of the other high contracting party"—that is the term, about which there is no possibility of error Every colony that accepts the AngloJapanese treaty will have to accept liability to unlimited Japanese immigration. That this is not an imaginary danger we may judge from the statement lately made to Sir Edwin Arnold by the Japanese Prime Minister, Count Ito, that Japan had already found its population too numerous to support. Now Australasia does not like the invasion of the Asiatic races. Is Australasia prepared to accept a treaty which may give a new and substantial produce market, in exchange for the Asiatic immigration of Japan ? ,The position is complicated by the strong probability that all the Powers will follow the example of Great Britain, and admit the Japanese by treaty to the absolute equality due to a civilised State.

We were not surpised under the circumstances to see that an attempt was made to delay the signing of the treaty until the Australasian Colonies have had time to realise its full effect. There is, however, no inconvenience in the fact that the treaty did not wait. The treaty is not to come into force for five years, and makes provision for a modus vivendi on a developing scale during the interim. The period has been fixed in order to give time for the vested interests that have grown up to find adjustment, and for the new arrangements to become properly matured. During the five years Australasia will have plenty of time to consider whether it will or will not accept the treaty. Will colonists accept the opening tip of a new trade by the sweeping away of treaty restrictions, or will they shut out the yellow tide from Japan ? In New Zealand there is not a "Jap," and there will in all probability never be. Northern Australia, on the other hand, will make a mistake if she shuts the " Jap" out, and so long as the north is open and the north-west, and north-east, the " Jap" is unlikely to come south. All Australasia can therefore very well join in accepting the new market on the terms offered. The position has to be considered. It is a new position of the greatest moment to the colonies of Great Britain, created by what is probably the first of a series of international treaties, recognising the status of Japan as a fully developed and organised civilised Power. The conference of Premiers which is to be held at Hobart on January 29th ought to consider this question fully. The sooner it is considered the sooner will the mercantile community understand whether they caa make preparations for the commercial rivalry which the treaty will stimulate over a very wide range.

The Anglo-Japanese treaty will, as we have already pointed out, open the ports of Japan, a country whose civilisation, increasing rapidly from day to day, augments the wants of the people in direct j>roportion. The prospect opening out is of an immense trade. In the treaty there is the usual clause, customary in all the Imperial commercial treaties of the last fourteen years, excepting all the self - governing colonies from its provisions, unless notice is given within two years the date of ratification of their wish to be included. This is what makes the treaty deeply interesting to New Zealand. That optional clause offers us a key to enormous possibilities, and gives us plenty of time in which to make up our minds about taking it. Five thousand miles, as the crow flies, the liew market lies

from us. In the line are New Caledonia, the Solomon Islands, the Carolines and the Ladrones, besides numerous other groups extending to within 500 miles of the Japanese coast, and to the east of the line lie the New Hebrides, aboutf 150 miles from the track. At ten knots it is a three weeks" journey direct, and at fourteen a fortnight's steaming will cover the distance. All the countries named are worth noting as of increasing commercial capacity, many of them destined no doubt to feel the vigorous stimulus of Japanese colonisation. But the great market at the other end is the main attraction, of course, the other places offering substantial, if subsidiary, rewaids to enlightened commercial enterprise. The western route is much longer, but it offers brilliant possibilities. New Guinea, the Dutch East Indies, and the Philippines, the last two named being populous and wealthy marts —what possibilities are there not for a line of steamers trading between Wellington and Japan by that route! What will Japan take from us, and what can we take from Japan ? That is the great question. One of the most enlightened projects that has ever been known south of the line was set on foot last year to answer a similar question by the Government of Victoria. That Government sent a well equipped commission which visited a great number of markets from India to Japan, and returned home with much encouragement and a most instructive report. Amongst other things, they reported " that the Japanese people are becoming very large meat eaters, and that mutton, which is only procurable from China, is regarded as one of their greatest luxuries." Wool, leather and dairy produce were also mentioned as articles of import into Japan at the present moment, with largely increasing possibilities of development. Coal they have there in plenty, but the article is inferior, being enormously smoky, as the accounts of their naval manoeuvres have largely testified. They, are the very people to take to the superior article, the very best in the Pacific, which New Zealand can supply. The timbers of New Zealand may never, handsome as they are, be in demand for furniture purposes in a country where furniture is of the lightest description, and depends largely on the bamboo. But for purposes of more solid construction there may be a demand. It would be a grand thing to follow the Victorian example and send a commission over from New Zealand to enquire into the whole question.

The subject is of the greatest importance, as has been pointed out by many writers, because the Australasian Colonies are being driven by the necessities of their situation into rapidly increasing the products of the soil. The problem of life here is governed by two considerations. In the first place, we must increase the output of the soil in order to find employment, sustenance, and careers for our people. In the second place, the prices of all kinds of produce are low, and the prospect is not the prospect of a rapid rise. Governments, it has also been urged, cannot increase their revenues by Customs taxation, the direct taxation of New Zealand is heavy enough to make increase undesirable, manufactures have reached the point at .vhich progress must be slow, in countries which are vitally interested in making progress rapid. There is literally no course open but to get the lands settled as quickly as possible. Under the circumstances, the securing of a new market is the greatest of all the things we have to desire. Canada is our rival, and in the same position with regard to the key offered for unlocking the new and large market offered. Moreover, the United States will be in the field early, for they are about follow the British example by making a treaty admitting Japan to equality of civilised rights. New Zealand, it is clear, has many rivals for the new field of trade. On the other hand, the war now raging makes it probable that Japan may succeed in getting into her conquering hands the organising- of China, the result of which would be to largely increase the possibilities of Eastern trade. An opportunity is being opened in the East, which must give the greatest profits to those who are the first to seize it. For which reason we hope that the question will be taken up warmly and energetically and in an enlightened spirit. We do not see why we should wait for Australia, which necessarily must move slowly. The Britain of the South can afford to move alone, and should do so without delay. While Australia is talking, we can take the key and unlock the market.