THE PRICE OF WHEAT.

New Zealand Mail, Issue 1095, 24 February 1893, Page 5

THE PRICE OF WHEAT.

In the course of an article on the grain trade of 1892, the Agricultural Gazette says with regard to wheat values, it is quite possible that a lower lovel may be reached in the immediate future. If the native crop had been harvested in marketable condition, deliveries would have been larger, and values could scarcely have boen prevented from falling, even lo.ver than they are now. It should bo borne in mind that the present low prices for English wheats are not actually worse than those 1887 88, when the crop was of splendid quality and in perfect condition ; the imperial monthly average then started with 29s 41 for September, and fell another penny in October, the great bulk of the crop passing into consumption at from 30s to 31s per 4801 b. Those wheats would average 631 b per imperial bushel natural weight, and 651 b wheats were a common feature of the market; so that the imperial average must fall to so mo thing like 26s per 4801 b before intrinsic valuo is as low a 3 it was then. Foreign rid wheats, however,- are now lower priced in our markets than they have ever been before, 263 9d having been accepted for American red winter wheats off-coast, and rather leS3 for South Russians ; in New York the valuo of red winter wheat on the spot was more than 10s per quarter lower at the end of November than it was at the corresponding date of last year. Putting on one side all minor sources of supply, the United States and Russia have large surpluses to sell. Russia sel ! s wheat, but the United States is soiling flour in preference to wheat. Our requirements for 1892-93 are fully in sight. Not only so, but the world’s production of wheat is once again greater than the market demand for it in Europe. In fact, the European demand is smaller than usual, good crops having boen grown over ail Western Europe excepting the United Kingdom. Therefore our market must rule times prices for the year. About the year 1875 I formed the opinion that the value of our native wheats no longer depended on the quantity we grew, the ruling factor being the available foreign supply ; from that time small crops no longer made high prices, necessarily. I have 3een no reason to alter that opinion, and the sooner we cease to grow wheat as a marketable commodity the better it may be for British farmers; they could grow enough for themselves and their labourers, and if country mills and millers should become extinct they could nude a very fair grist for whole meal bread ou a roller attached to the home machinery. Then the merits of the big and cheap Free Trade loaf would have a chance to become conspicuous. At present that said loaf is practically the same in price as it was this time last year when flour wa3 10s per sack dearer. This is one of the curiosities of the situation which political economists do not seem able to explain away. There are those who think the world will get tired of growing wheat ata loss ; but they cannot prove that the world is growing wheat at a loss. They forget that a country which grows more wheat than it can consume in one year must either store or sell the surplus; and that, after having fed its own people, the remainder i 3 a more or less profitable asset; and, further, that about the first act of civili sation is to grow wheat. The Argentine Confederation, with a glorious climate and rich soil, has increased her growth and export of wheat (also maize and lin seed) by leaps and bounds, and will soon rival the output of Australia ; in this instance it is all a question of transit (as it is also in Russia), , acd the quality of the Argentine produce, both wheat and maize, is excellent. Then, again, there are those who expect to see the consumption of the United States overtake its production ; that may coma to pa3s, but

it ia not yet within measurable distance of time ; and the same may be said of Australasia. Meanwhile, there is the Continent of Africa practically untouched, much of its area coming within the wheat and maize belt. Altogether, [ cannot see any reasonable outlook for permanent improvement in wheat values here, as even a great European war could only be expected to raise them for a time. It is estimated that the cost of moving wheat from Chicago to Liverpool or London is now covered by about 6s or 7s per quarter, or 32s per (on ; but when freights between the Atlantic seaboard and United Kingdom ports cease to exist, and rfheat is taken free as ballast, or nearly so, the * protection of the sea ’ —a mirage which deceived the late Sir James O.lird—disappears entirely, and upsets all calculations. And this is likely to occur from time to time, more frequently than hitherto.