N.Z. MAIL PUBLISHED WEEKLY. FRIDAY, AUGUST 10, 1888.

New Zealand Mail, Issue 858, 10 August 1888, Page 16

N.Z. MAIL PUBLISHED WEEKLY. FRIDAY, AUGUST 10, 1888.

It is perhaps not unnatural that the opponents of the present Customs Tariff should take every opportunity to cast discredit upon it, and to represent it as a total failure. This may not be quite fair in the strictest sense of the term, hut it is a very common trick in political warfare. Some of the “ devices of the enemy ” are certainly of a peculiarly mild and harmless nature. One is to call the present Government’s Financial Statement “ a Black Budget.” This gentle jest is reiterated with somewhat nauseous frequency, but no reason is adduced for employing the particular adjective “ black.” in fact several others might have been used with much more point and cogency. For instance, the Budget might have been st-vied contemptuously a “ Black-and-white ” budget, as signifying that its estimates were merely “ on paper ” and of no practical value. Or it might have been call a ‘‘Blue Budcet” because of the aspect worn by those who listened to the list of severe imposts- read out by the Chairman of Committees. Or the “ Green Budget ” might have figuratively set forth the verdancy of the Ministry that could expect to save the country by such means. Or the “ Bed Budget would have typified the unduly sanguine hue "of its parents’ anticipations. However, it does not really matter vory much what the Budget is called. If a rose by any name will smell as sweet, a taxing budget by any name will thsto as nasty. Increased taxation is never pleasant, but it is often unavoidable, and in the present instance it could only have been avoided by such large reductions in the 1 public service—educational, postal, and ’railway —as the House would not listen to for a moment.

But another basis of attack upon the Budget is how taken up. it is asserted that the new tariff has already proved a disastrous failure as a means' of -raising increased revenue. It is alleged that the Premier’s calculations as to the probable yield of the new tariff have proved wiluly incorrect, and that instead of procuring'an increase of revenue sufjicienc to pay off the deficit'of previous years, - and prevent deficits for the future, it has produced such a decrease of revenue that the deficit this year will be greater than ever. It is pointed out that by the Premier’s Estimates the new taxation should have yielded additional revenue amounting to £25,00Q per month, but th.at it was not expected that it wpujd yield so rquc'i as that for the first month, because while the tariff was in suspense trade was disturbed, and clearances were limited to bare necessities, So that if the additional revenue in June had amounted to £12,500 and had risen in July to £17,500, there would not have been much cause for uneasiness, but, it is said, the actual results are that “the Customs returns for. June showed an increase of only £1460 over the corresponding mouth of last year, and for July they snow ft decr^"£2088; fort - V Bliy> first two months of the operation of the fcarjff, instead of the revenue

being increased by £50,000, or any reasonable proportion of that sum, it has positively diminished by £628, ns against the receipts of the same two months of last year.” Such is the case as stated against the tariff, and it is argued therefrom that the outcome must be a heavy deficit and a'serious financial crisis. Indeed, it is unreservedly asserted that the Premier himself admits the fallacy of his calculations, and is so uneasy about tho financial situation that if he saw his way he would even now bring down fresh proposals for raising the additional revenue which would bo needed through the failure of the Customs. We may say at once, and upon the highest authority, that this last statement is wholly without , foundation. No such idea has ever been entertained. Indeed, so far from the Government admitting; that the new tariff is proved a failure, they consider it has yielded as well as could be expected in the circumstances, and that there is Ho adequate reason to doubt that the Treasurer’s estimate will be, at all events, approximately realised. That is, we are assured, the opinion of the Government. It may or may not be well-founded. Without discussing that question now we prefer to make an independent examination of the Customs returns and to see how far they bear out the gloomy construction which has . been placed upon them. In the first place we notice that the Customs revenue for the quarter — which included one month of the new tariff—was £24,000 larger than that for the corresponding quarter of ISS7. It will be retorted with perfect justice that this includes all the heavy speculative clearances iu May in anticipation .of the new tariff, and that the one month in which the heavier duties were in operation exhibited a large falling off. That is quite true. But tho explanation is manifest. The May Customs yielded no less than £143,815, which has only been equalled on three previous occasions in tho whole history of New Zealand, namely, in August, 1881, August, 18S4, and Jane, ISBS, all these large monthly returns being similarlv due to speculative operations in expectation of increased duties. The clearances of last May were enormously greater in proportion than those, having regard to tho reduced value of imports, and tho consequently larger amounts now represented by a given sum paid in ad valorem duties. The inevitable consequence of that sweeping clearance in May has been to overstock all the holders and to cause a marked reaction in the next two months ; indeed, the goods cleared iu May are not even yet exhausted, but are still being gradually “ worked off” by the trade. Hence we find that the June Customs fell nearly one-half as compared with May, the receipts being only £79,402. But here comes another pregnant fact which is carefully ignored by the opponents of the new tariff. Small as were the June returns in comparison with May, they nevertheless exceeded by £2220 those of June, 1887, although on that occasion there had. been no previews speculative clearances. * And the CustVy'ms revenue for the two months, May and guile,' 1888 ‘(the ‘ new tariff being in force part of one mouth and tho whole of the other), was no less than £44,732 larger than that of May-June, 1887 ! That is an awkward fact for the pessimists to get over. Proceeding in our examination, we find July already showing a recovery of £15,000 after the reaction of June, and this notwithstanding an exceptionally unfavourable condition wbifch happened to prevail. We learn 6n inquiry that the tipring shipments of “ sPft; goods ” have been rather late in coming to hand this year, there being hardly any arrivals of importance in ' July. Bat in the present month 'they are beginning to fj iw in. Tho steamers Coptic and Ruapehu, and several other arrivals during' August and September, should make a material difference in the aspepfc of the Oqstqrus revenue.

Booking at the financial position generally, there appear to ba no substantial grounds for tho sombre vaMcinaiioua which have been indulged in by some people. The Customs revenue up to date, that is to say for the first third of the offichCl year, has already exceeded the Treasurer’s estimate for that period by £2724. That is not at all a bad beginning.