GERMAN STRATEGY

New Zealand Herald, Volume 80, Issue 24539, 23 March 1943, Page 3

GERMAN STRATEGY

INTENTIONS IN RUSSIA LONDON WRITERS' VIEWS COMMUNICATIONS SUPERIORITY (Special Correspondent) LONDON. March 21 Events on the Russian front are being watched closely in London. There are varying opinions as to the intentions of the Germans, one being that they will attempt a further offensive, and another is that they will hold a defensive line. Mr. J. L. Garvin, writing in the Sunday Express, expresses the opinion that tho Russian front is a battle of communications and reserves. He says the Russians still have a formidable reservo which they have brought up and marshalled by far slower means than the movement and concentrations of the Germans. Ou tho other hand, the Germans have completely reconquered the superiority in communications which lias been their .tremendous advantage from tho first, and which again is bound to bo their main asset. "Expert opinion," he adds, "believes that they are striving to conquer and consolidate advanced bases for that movement without seeking at present to press much beyond the Donetz, also that tho Russians on this front will bo unable for some time to organise a full counter-offensive."

Bid for World Mastery Mr, Garvin draws the conclusions, firstly, that the Russians may have to face another defensive campaign as desperate as the two former campaigns; secondly, that the Red Armies, in spite of their marvellous fighting and their strengthened power to prevent the worst happening, can never win the war by themselves, even in Russia, and, thirdly, that we have not seen the last of the Nazi bid for the mastery of the world in the battlo of Russia and in the final battle of the seas and coasts against the Western Powers. The Observer, holding a differing view, expresses the opinion that tho Germans are preparing for the defensive in the East. It notes that the promises of a new Russian Bummer offensive propounded by Goering and Goebbels have completely disappeared from Gorman propaganda recently. "It seems that the Germans will this year bo content to hold a straightened front in tho East,'' it says, "which will leave them ample strategic reserve to seal any Russian break-through or to shift to tho southern or western fronts as the need may arise." Political Offensive The Observer also suggests that the German general staff has drawn the following conclusions: Germany can no longer win the war by military means. She has no longer even a chance of fin- j ishing off Russia and then turning all her power against the West._ Any attempt to force a military decision would carry the probability of precipitating a break-down. Germany, however, still has a chance, by mobilising and carefully husbanding her reserves, to carry on a defensive war for a certain period, which may be longer or shorter, according to the fortune of battle. This period can be used to try to find a way out by political means, such as splitting the < coalition of the United Nations. A military defensive coupled with a political offensive would thus become tho basis of German grand strategy.