THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 4, 1942 JAPAN'S NEXT MOVE

New Zealand Herald, Volume 79, Issue 24370, 4 September 1942, Page 2

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 4, 1942 JAPAN'S NEXT MOVE

The possibility of a rupture of the uneasy neutrality between Russia and Japan was apparently the subject of discussion at the meeting two days ago of the Pacific War Council. Mr. T. V. Soong, the Chinese representative, emphasised what seems always present in -the mind of his Government —the imminence of a Japanese attack on Siberia. Until the resignation of Togo, the Foreign Minister of Japan, and supporter, according to common repute, of peaceful relations with the Soviet, China's forecast of a Russo-Japanese war was suspect because of Chungking's obvious wish to embroil her mortal foe with the colossus of the north. But General Tojo's sudden removal of his colleague has given more substance to the views of the Chinese. As the Germans draw closer to Stalingrad and threaten to cut the Volga lifeline, Japan may think the moment ripe, like Italy in 1940, to strike at a country fighting with its back to the wall. The alternatives presented to the Japanese High Command—of attacking either India or Siberia —will be judged in the light of a world strategy. However slight the genuine goodwill of the Japanese for the Germans, the Japanese cannot win this war if their allies are defeated. Indispensable for an Axis victory is a joinder of the armies of Germany and Japan. That can be effected on Russian territory by Axis blows from the west and the east, or it can happen through a German march to Persia and a Japanese drive through India. Japan, secure for the present within her far-flung circle of island conquests, no doubt has determined whether she will hurl her forces against Russia or India—perhaps against both.

General Tojo will have considered the onset of winter in Siberia, the industrial strength of this great area, its communications, and the character of the Soviet's Far Eastern army. While the great Amur River, the boundary between Manchukuo and Siberia, begins to freeze in September, the campaigning season in India is opening. The Russians have no political troubles in Siberia; Hindu India seethes with Congress dissension. The Soviet's Far Eastern army is at least half a million strong—some estimates say a million. It is well mechanised, the air force based on Vladivostok can strike at the wooden cities of Japan, Soviet submarines can do some damage to Japanese shipping. Previous exchanges between Soviet and Japanese forces in the unofficial wars on the Siberian frontier proved the Russians, both in mechanical strength and generalship, fully the equal of their adversaries. The Indian Army, on the other hand, is probably deficient in mechanisation. Although a million men are under General WavelPs command, the hard core of efficient fighting men is very much less. Up to this point a Japanese attack on India would seem the more likely event. It is true that a land attack on Siberia is easier than a march over the mountainous country separating Assam and Burma. Such obstacles do not deter the Japanese. If they contemplate a landing in India, they possess the great naval base of Singapore and the port of Rangoon from which their main battle fleet can escort the transports of the invading army. The vast riches of India are a tempting prize and their lure will grow if Rommel is victorious in Egypt, and Bock in the Volga valley. Rommel is only at the beginning of his offensive; there is yet no evidence that he will succeed. Stalingrad is in grave peril, but the Russian armies are still intact. Hitler is far from the Persian Gulf. Japan's naval strength has suffered; a major engagement in the Indian Ocean exposes her to the menace of the United States Navy in the Pacific. General Tojo's course against India has in consequence its perils. But he cannot stand still: the mounting strength of America drives him on. In spite of the winter, he may strike Siberia at Khabarorsk and thus sever Vladivostok from Soviet industries west of Lake Baikal. In the Russo-Japanese war the battle of Mukden was fought in February and March in the depths of the Manchurian winter. The withdrawal of Japanese troops from certain areas in China points to a concentration for an imminent offensive elsewhere. It will be launched suddenly and relentlessly. The Japanese have shown in the Solomons that they fight to the death. But the United Nations have both at sea and on the land made the Japanese taste defeat. The enemy has stretched his conquests too far. In the effort to stretch them still further he may win battles, but he cannot achieve victory.