CHINA'S NEW NATIONAL SPIRIT

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXXVI, Issue 23333, 29 April 1939, Page 3 (Supplement)

CHINA'S NEW NATIONAL SPIRIT

These soldiers have, as the Japanese phrase runs, sacrificed their "blood and treasure" to "bring China to her knees," and peace falling short of what they believe to be Japan's just deserts would appear in their eyes almost as an act of treachery by Tokio. Already the discipline of the Japanese Army in China has broken down to a degree that is perceptible. Such an army can become dangerous if its wishes and ambitions are flouted. Talk of the possibilities of a revolution in Japan is preposterous and scarcely worth denying. There is not a single indication that any Japanese harbours such a thought. The concept of revolution simply does not exist in Japan at present, and no one gives it a moment's consideration.

A S long as neither Japan nor f\ China has been effectively defeated in the field, as long as the moral of both sides continues at its : present high level and the determination to fight the matter out at all costs remains adamant, as long as both sides can command the finances,, war materials and men to go on fighting, so long there is no prospect of peace in China. Such conditions exist to-day. In spite of her heavy losses of territory and men, China is far from being a defeated nation. In spite of her own losses in men and the heavy drain on her economic system, Japan is nowhere near the end of her rope nor will she be in £he forseeable future. Undoubtedly the desire for peace exists in both camps, but the will to fight is still burning strongly. To think that Japan would capitulate to peace demands is ridiculous. It is almost equally ridiculous to believe that Chiang Kai-shek might do so. Wang Ching-wei's recent abortive peace offer and his subsequent repudiation by every Chinese of consequence and by the Chinese masses are proof of this statement. '

"To deal with Peking now is like dealing with ourselves, and that will get ns nowhere. If we are -to have peace, we must deal with that part of China which is still in arms against us, and that means Chiang Kai-shek." Jsipan is not ready, and may never be, to accept the loss of prestige abroad, and even more so at home, that dealing with Chiang would now involve. There are other Japanese obstacles to a genuine peace. The exact number of troops sent to the China fronts since July 7, 1937, is a secret, but is believed to exceed 1,000,000. Many are dead, some having fallen on the field of battle and even more having fallen before pestilence and disease. Some have been returned to Japan and demobilised. But many remain, and Japan would scarcely risk the conclusion of a peace that was unacceptable to this army in China. > : ■ • ' I

"What are we flighting For?" It is true, of course, that the war hf\s not been and is not popular in the sense that the first Sino-Japanese and, more particularly, the l?usso-Japanese wars were popular. The saino burning enthusiasm is not to be found. In the Russo-Japanese war the Japanese felt they were fighting for their life as a nation; in 'the present war many Japanese fail to perceive that even absolute victory will bring any great gain to the Empire. There prevails something of a bewildered feeling of "What are we fighting for?"

' Loyalty To Chiang Japan desires peace but sees in victory the only way to obtaining it. An almost insurmountable barrier was erected :n January of last year by the Japanese Imperial Conference, the decisions of which have been confirmed Bgain and again. The Premier at that itime declared /that Japan would nover Seal with Chiang Kai-shek. The hope fiiust have been entertained in Tokio that, as a result of this declaration, the Chinese people and many of their Naders would turn against Chiang, drive him from office and make peace. Such a hope was not based on Tacts and lias failed to materialise. Chiang Ka i-shek is China to-day and possesses the unswerving loyalty of his subordinates.

"lokio cnn.nof course, conclude peace "bt any moment with the puppet regimes iup in Peking, and elsewhere, but this would not be concluding peace with China, for these areas, in spite of their extent, are not China. As one wis© Japanese statesman .told me months ago;;,,

There is Unshaken Faith to Resist WHY JAPAN MAINTAINS HER AIM OF CONQUEST By FRANK H. HEDGES—a Special Correspondent in Tokio

In spite of this, there is not one Japanese to be found who is not ready and willing to support the war, to make any sacrifice of life or of the material things of life that his nation may demand of him. Enthusiasm may not be strong, but support of the course Japan is pursuing is united and unshakable.

Japan's Gold Reserves Similarly, talk about an impending economic collapse in Japan is a false scent. The war has dug deeply into Japan's gold reserves and will dig still deeper, but Japanese currency is in an eminently sound position and can stand a far greater strain than has vet been put upon it or is likely to be put. Inflation exists, but it is not an inflation of the currency. It is an inflation of credit, especially of bank credit. It should be emphasised that Japan is financing the war entirely by herself. Not a penny of help has been extended in the form of foreign loans, and Tokio knows it could not float a bond issue abroad to-day. Not only have actual war expenditures been met with yen, but industry and business in general are financing themselves in the same manner. Except for a few driblets in the form of long term credits for the purchase of commodities abroad and except for profits from the export trade, no foreign money is coming into, Japan, nor is there any promise of any. Army's Grip On Nation Inflation of domestic credit is a natural consequence of this condition, and a still greater inflation is inevitable as rapidly growing domestic bond issues are put on the market through the great banking houses. Thus, Japan's

financial and economic conditions are not by any moans enviable, but they are still fundamentally sound and it may be safely assumed that they will remain so for the duration of hostilities unless outside factors not now present make their appearance. The grip of the Army on the nation is firm and unshakable. The Army favours thp continuation of hostilities until China is crushed, and the Army will have its way. It is folly to think that any group in Japan can successfully combat the Army and alter national policy, even if any group should desire to do so. The Japanese people, even those Liberals who privately criticise much in Japanese nolicy, arc firmly and unquestionably behind the Japanese Army. No alternative is even considered. Recently a new factor, which may prove a powerful motive, has entered the situation. This is the vision of what Tokio calls a New Order in Eastern Asia, a new order in which Japan would be supreme from Saghalien to perhaps Singapore -or beyond. The Briton, American and other foreigners would have a place, of course, but it would be a placo assigned to him by Tokio.

Vision of New Order The Open Door would not bo entirely closod, but Japan's idea of the New Open Door is something Hke this: A free Aoav of British pounds, American dollars, Dutch guilders and other foreign currencies or credits into Japan and into China through Japan, but controlled and directed entirely by Japanese. Foreign moneys are almost desperately welcome, but not foreign control of the expenditure, investment and administration of those moneys. Is it to bo wondered at that this vision of a New Order in Eastern Asia, in which Japan would be an absolute monarch, with other Asiatic Nations, plus foreign interests in the Far East, in tho position of vassals, dazzles the eyes of all Japanese? Here is a comparatively small nation that in threequarters of a century has come the long road from feudalism to modernity—though much of the feudalism lingers on powerfully —in strides like those of the wearer of seven-league boots. Japnn feels keenly that she is not accorded full equality, and realises that in some respects, notably raw materials she has not achieved it. The chance to achieve that equality, perhaps even supremacy, now seems to lie ready to hand by grasping the sword. The sword has been grasped, and naturally Japan sees no need to relinquish it so long as it accomplishes her desires.

Chinese Resistance Japan would like greatly to conclude peace with China now, but it would have to be a peace dictated by Tokio. She can see no way of reaching this goal except by continued warfare, except by carving her way farther and farther into the interior of China, at whatever cost, until both Cluang Kai-shek and all China have in truth been "brought to their knees." The Tokio Government has said there would be no treaty of peace, but rather a declaration of peace by Tokio. That jvould necessitate reducing China to a

state so impotent that it would not be necessary to negotiate with her. The Japanese Army certainly ardently desires this. The strength of the Chinese resistance and moral were unexpected, but they are facts to-day, and perforce must be dealt with in the factual field. For her part China wants and probably prays for peace, but it must be a peace in some degree compatible with national honour, and a peace which will not so Weaken the nation as to make revival impossible for decades longer. If China were willing now to accept peace at any price, or at even what some might consider a reasonable price in view of the defeats she has suffered on the field of battle, then Wang Chingwei would have found support for his unofficial peace proposals. Well-Laid Plans Instead, Wang was expelled from the Kuomintang, deprived of all his Government posts and bitterly anathematised by Chinese in all walks of life. His treatment is important as showing that China is determined to fight on and is solidly behind Chiang Kai-shek. It may be asked, what has China left to fight for? The answer is that she still has her original objective and she believes she will attain it.

Two years or more ago, before the Avar broke out, the Nanking Government realised that conflict was inevitable sooner or later, and laid their plans accordingly. During the past 18 months everything has gone according to these plans except that the Chinese have done better than" they had expected. The only real disappointment has been the failure of the Chinese air force. . The Government knew full well that they were no match for the Japanese on the field of battle, and never entertained the illusion that they could defeat Japan in a military way. Knowing this, plans were laid accordingly, it was hoped that the Chinese air force would be effective against the Japanese Navy in China waters, but this it most distinctly has not been. Chiang is believed to have a minimum of several hundred 'planes, and is purchasing more. What he sorely lacks is trained airmen, but young pilots are being trained, and some foreign airmen of fortune aro arriving at Chungking and talcing employment with China.

spite of all Japan's efforts to scuttle it. Loans have been made by Britain and America, and more may be expected. Wealthy Chinese abroad are sending sums amounting to at least £30,000,000 a year. Some foreign experts in China place these remittances at four times that amount. In addition, no one can even estimate how great are the funds being voluntarily sent to Chungking by Chinese residents in the zones occupied by the Japanese. But as an indication it may he mentioned that the room, lobln r and dining-room "boys" in cno of Shanghai's principal ißoteis levy a. monthly tithe on their o\»n pay for this purpose, and take 20 per cent of tlieir total tips for the same cause. So much for munitions, man-powder and finances. Chiang is in an even sounder position as regards the moral and determination of the civilian and military officials under him, and of the mass of the people. That part of China which was hardest to litild from the strategic viewpoint is already lost, and the terrain is now all in favour of China and air against Japan. Whereas China's casualties on the coastal plains may have been in a ratio of five to one against Japan's, in tho mountains of the interior this ratio is steadily being reversed. -

Could Powers Help? There remains, however, one eventuality which must be discussed when the prospects for or against peace in the Far East are being estimated. The belief has been sown and x has germinated and grown almost to maturity among Chinese leaders that the only way to an effective peace is an international conference of the Powers with major interests in China. They should meet jointly with delegates of China and Japan. There was a time when a China inflamed with nationalism was ready to denounce the rights of the Powers in China, but that is far from the case to-day. "Japan," the Chinese tell me, "may denounce treaties unilaterally such as the Nine-Power Treaty, but China never We have certain obligations to the Powers secured by treaty and otherwise, and these we must respect. Wo shall never betray our friends in the West. No matter what one may think of it, the Nine-Power Treaty has been in essence the Constitution of the Far East ever since its ratification, and if it is now to be replaced all its signatories must have a voice in determining what system will replace it." , , For this reason, they hold, no final and enduring peace in Eastern Asia is possible except througk an international conference^

The wiser of the Chines© leaders, however, realise that no other method could be so objectionable to the Japanese, who, from prince to peasant, would regard such a conference as "intervention." So in order that Japan might, "save face" in this respect, the ChiAng regime is ready to conclude a "peace*? directly with Japan, but only on condition that an international conference is called immediately afterwards to adjust Far Eastern affairs from the practical standpoint.

Plenty of Man-Power Szechuan, into which the Japanese have not penetrated, is China's most populous province, and it is not the only one by any means still under Chiang's control and still loyal to hitn. His army is at least as large as it was on the day war broke out, and probably larger. Most of his crack units are still intact. The one thing that China has never lacked is mnn-pmver, nor does she lack it to-day. In spite of the loss of huge slices of territory, Chiang will never lack for soldiers so long as the loyalty and solidarity now existing continue, and there is no sign of their cracking up. Financially, Chiang is in a sound position. He still has a substantial silver reserve, some of it at home and some abroad. The Chinese yuan has depreciated in, yalue* but is still Bound, ix*

No Peace Prospects But even this, I feel certain, is too much for Japan to accept*.to-dny, witlj her bedazzling dreams of a New Order in Eastern Asia, and with a huge force in the field in China that must ?be placated. . . Leaving out of consideration the possibility of a second Russo-Japanese war or a world - war, I can find no answer to. the dual questions, so constantly posed by foreigner and 'by Chinese and Japanese alike in this part of the - world: "When will the . war end?" and "How can peace be achieved?" It seems to me that war is destined to go on for a year, two years, none knows how long. I entertained this belief 18 months ago and nothing ha? happened to change my view. It may be that some deus ex machina. will descend and put an end to this car-; nage, this destruction of wealth, this self-exhaustion of the two great nations of the Western Pacific, but if so he is invisible to my eyes, and I fear, regretfully, to the eyes of Tokio ana.*■ of Chungking. t • ' . '