SEASON'S PROSPECTS

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXXV, Issue 23183, 1 November 1938, Page 8

SEASON'S PROSPECTS

Warnings that the present production season may yield a substantially lower output than last are not new. That the first months were marked by a reduction is not conjecture, it is fact. Dairy production is down by 19 per cent, an estimate confirmed from several sources. The important question is whether this leeway can be made up. A report from the southern part of the North Island is optimistic, suggesting that the deficit can still be overtaken. Mr. R. H. McKenzie, chairman of directors of the New Zealand Co-operative Dairy Company, thinks otherwise, and his words carry weight. However, Mr. McKenzie, just returned from Australia, is able to add an estimate of prospects in the Commonwealth. Production is likely to be lower in Victoria, but good rains in Queensland and New South Wales promise a yield sufficient to make Australia a greater exported of dairy produce this year than last. In Mr. McKenzie's view, the increase will be as great as any prospective fall in the New Zealand output. Consequently there is not likely to be any shortage of supplies from this part of the world, which means that no increase in price due to scarcity can be expected. All these things are entirely conjectural'. As has been noted before, an exceptionally -favourable autumn can entirely reverse adverse tendencies shown early in the season. Although there is the certain factor of production actually lower in the spring, it is far too early to come to pessimistic conclusions. The progress of the season must be watched carefully, in case recovery does not occur. This is all the more necessary because the -results of the facial eczema epidemic are likely to be shown by the wool and fat lamb markets.