AN AMERICAN PORTENT

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXXII, Issue 22261, 8 November 1935, Page 10

AN AMERICAN PORTENT

With both Presidential and Congressional elections only a year ahead in the United States, signs of a turnover of votes, as exemplified by various State contests, are bound to be closely examined as a possible portent. In New York State Assembly a small Democrat majority has given place to a much more substantial preponderance of Republicans. New Jersey and Massachusetts have shown a similar tendency in a less marked form. These are not, however, the first reverses the Democrat cause has suffered. At the beginning of August a special election was held in Rhode Island to fill a casual vacancy in the Federal House of Representatives. In 1934 the seat had been won by a Democrat, who polled a majority of 21,000 votes. This year a Republican carried it by 13,000 votes, representing a turnover of 34,000. The contest was fought wholly on national and party lines ; there was no intrusion of local issues. Commentators have noted a restiveness under the Roosevelt Administration in all the New England States, which comprise Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massa chusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut. Various causes have been suggested, but the chief factor is doubtless the reaction of America's oldest established and most conservative communities to the impact of new and unorthodox policies. That was sufficient explanation when only the turnover in Rhode Island demanded analysis. Now the movement has spread further, since New York has become involved. There is little doubt it marks a slackening of the tide which ran so strongly in Mr. Roosevelt's favour three years ago and again last year. So far it can be given due weight as a portent ; but it must not be over-esti-mated. If the States on the Atlantic seaboard turn against him, it will be a setback, but it is not there that the battle next year will be lost and won. The key to the situation lies in the Middle West and in the "Solid South." Until there is some reliable indication of the state of feeling in these regions, attempts to forecast what will happen in November next year are futile.