OVERSEAS TRADE

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXIX, Issue 21346, 22 November 1932, Page 8

OVERSEAS TRADE

The return of overseas trade for the month of October, just issued by the Customs Department, has some interesting implications which are intensified when the figures for ten months of this year are considered. First, it is to be noted that the value of exports for October suffers little by comparison with that for the equivalent month of such years as 1928 or 1927 before the cold hand of depression had closed on the world. It is not soupd to claim too much from the evidence of one month's exports, but it can be suggested that an'early and favourable season has helped, so far, to mitigate the effects of an appallingly low price level. On the other side, so low have imports fallen that for the first time since an abnormal post-war year, 1919, exports for October have been higher in value than imports. The first four months of the production year, from July to October, emphasise this feature of the position. Normally the tide of exports has not begun to run strongly, while the activities of merchants and importers, anticipating spring and Christmas demands, swell the total of imports. An excess on the inward side of overseas trade is regarded as normal. On no occasion in the past ten years before 1931 had the excess of imports for these four months been valued at less than £4,500,000. In 1925 it. rose to more than £10,000,000. This year, for the July-October period, exports have shown an excess value of almost £1,102,000. By this the severity with which overseas buying has been reduced can be estimated. The effect on the trade balance is striking. For the year, so far as it has gone, the apparent favourable balance is over £12,000,000, and when the value of exports, officially expressed in New Zealand currency, has been reduced approximately to sterling, the visible favourable balance is in the neighbourhood of £9,700,000. For the whole of last year the equivalent

figure was some £7,600,000. On the experience of last year it- is reasonable to assume that the demands for "invisible" imports interest on overseas debt, dividends on invested capital, private remittances and travellers' requirements—can be met without any strain on London funds. It has been broadly suggested that there will be a heavy accumulation of money temporarily invested there, for which no employment will be available in financing inward trade. This seems a distinct possibility from the statistical position as revealed to date.