THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 3, 1932 PAST AND FUTURE

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXIX, Issue 21278, 3 September 1932, Page 8

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 3, 1932 PAST AND FUTURE

Lv the business man's survey of present economic conditions which ! he presented in an address during the week, Sir James Gunson did use- j ful service by his reminder that this is not the only depression New Zealand has experienced. That is i true also of the world as a whole, and the world, too, has been reminded that the alternation of depression and recovery is an accepted feature of economic history. The tale of fat years and lean years succeeding is as old as Scriptural times. Following his excursion into New Zealand's past, Sir James Gunson suggested there was little prospect of finding sound guidance in the difficulties of the day from the experiences of 40 years ago., The lesson was to be found in the developments of the next 25 years. That is very reasonable, but as a necessary starting point the conditions making possible the rise from past depression need to be examined in relation to those existing to-day. This was recognised by Sir James in his reference to the lightness of debt obligations 40 years ago compared with those which exist now. There is interest as well as possible enlightenment in carrying this process of comparison and contrast further. It has to be recognised that the progress which has occurred in the meantime has left the country with fewer easily developed assets than existed then, that some wasting assets have been substantially exhausted; but advances in scientific knowledge, technical equipment and transport facilities should have brought into the foreground others which were not then realised, or might not have existed for all the possibilities they offered at the time.

There are records through which the volume and nature of the development which has occurred in the period to be considered are revealed. prosperity at the present time is wont to be measured by the condition of overseas trade, especially the return from exports. As a starting point, therefore, the exports in 1888 were valued at £7,767,000 or £l2 per head of the population. In 1928 the corresponding figures were £56,188.000 and £39. Some allowance has to.be made for the reduced value of money in terms of commodities, but, even so, the figures indicate an amazing expansion in the period of 40 years. Of the 1888 total wool was responsible for £3,115,000, or not much less than one-half. Frozen meat was valtied at £628,800, showing the forward movement that six years of refrigerated carriage had brought. Butter was worth only £118,250 and cheese a mere £79,000. In 1928 the value of wool exported was £16,679,000. It was still the largest item in the list, but it was far from predominating, as it did 40 years ago; two years later it had fallen behind at least two other commodities. The 1928 value for frozen meat was £10,310,000, for butter £11,303,000, both greater than the whole export trade of 1888. For cheese the figure was £6,694,000. Four other commodities are worth listing. In 1888 the value of gold exported was £914,000, of kauri gum £381,000, of flax £75,000 and of sawn timber £177,877. The corresponding figures for 1928 were gold £490,000, kauri gum £240,000, flax £352,000 and timber £377,000. The actual level of these values is not nearly so significant as their relation to the whole yield of exported produce. Even in 1888 the overshadowing position of wool showed how pastoral farming ranked as the chief source of wealth. The .comparison with 1928* reveals that though its products have diversified, thanks entirely to refrigerated transport, pastoral farming fs still king of the Dominion's export industries. Compared with the immense development of grass-land fanning the other avenues of production have lost ground immeasurably. The coming of cold storage methods provided the stimulus for the development by which the country rose from depression 40 years ago to heights of prosperity not dreamed of then, and not; realised always during its reign. The impact of depression again has shown just how great that prosperity was. But there were conditions in those bygon& days which are not duplicated now. Huge areas of first-class virgin country lay untouched awaiting development. The amount now available is strikingly less. This does not diminish, it increases, the urgency of making available the Crown estate and the areas where native titles bar the way to proper utilisation by Maori or European ; but it is idle to suggest that the extent of this land is as it was. So, too, great estates that were ripe for subdivision when dairying began its spectacular rise do pot exist as they did.

The Matamata subdivision is a classic example of what was possible in earlier days. Swamp areas still offer themselves for drainage and settlement, but it" is doubtful whether there is another Hauraki Plains among them. On the other hand, farming technique has advanced. The use of fertilisers has effected a transformation in much settled country, and can do even more yet. New methods of soil and pasture treatment, advances in animal husbandry, and other applications of science to primary production all deny the suggestion that development cannot continue, a.s it did before. It will not be of the same, kind, but the impulse to draw still greater returns from the soil is not exhausted. Then, too, there are possibilities in a return to industries that have fallen behind in the race — gold and flax being the two of greatest promise. All these prospects lie before the country to help it escape from depression into prosperity. Nobody could see any further ahead in the nineties than can be seen now, yet. the people did not despair. They worked, they strove, they won—and it can be done again. It is true that in ISSB the Government debt was £54. 15s per head of the population, in 1928 it, was £l7l ; the taxation per head was £3 4s 5d and £ll 17s 7d in the two years respectively. These factors count tremendously, but there is no use allowing them to cause despair. They simply have to be recognised as adverse circumstances to be overcome and altered in the task of restoring prosperity now as was done after the depression of 40 years ago.