THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXIX, Issue 21253, 5 August 1932, Page 10

THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The accounts for the first quarter of a financial year give but a meagre basis for estimating the prospects for the full 12 months. Nevertheless, the figures gazetted yesterday, covering the position for the April-June period of 1932-33 have several features of interest. Revenue, compared with that for the first quarter of last year, has fallen by £250,000 in round figures. In his preliminary Budget estimates submitted to Parliament on April 7, Mr. Downie Stewart predicted a shrinkage of £3,490,000 for the full year, allowance being made for the fact; that reserves drawn upon in 1931-32 would not be available. If revenue prospects could be averaged over the four quarters the outlook could be regarded as much better than he expected : but this cannot be done, since the flow of national income is not uniform over the year. The only safe conclusion is to accept the reduction with thankfulness that it has not been greater. Of the £7660 increase in taxation revenue the outstanding feature is that the yield from customs and excise has helped to offset considerable shrinkages elsewhere. Some £200,000 more than last year has come from this source. For the whole year a reduction of £900,000 was predicted. Higher duties and an increased flow of imports have combined to suggest that indirect taxation of this character will be a good deal more productive than was expected. That the return from motor vehicle duties and licences should be down by £132,000 need cause no surprise. The monthly figures have indicated a drastic fall everywhere. Other items are less easily compared, for accounting fluctuations are stated to explain what appear considerable discrepancies. On the expenditure side an apparent saving of £935,000 seems impressive. The suspension of payments on the funded war debt accounts for £786,000 of the sum, so that the net gain is really about £150,000. Since savingß of £4,100,000 —of which £325,000 appeared genuine economies —were set forth as a feature of the plans to cover the prospective deficit, there is obviously ample room for more effort in this field. The judgment ~of the National Expenditure Commission on the point will be the more interesting for the possibility disclosed by the quarter's accounts.