WELLINGTON REVIEW.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXVIII, Issue 21037, 23 November 1931, Page 11

WELLINGTON REVIEW.

FIVE STRAIGHT CONTESTS. BRIGHT, COALITION CHANCES. MAY CAPTURE TWO SEATS. [BY TELEGRAPH. OAVN CORRESPONDENT.] WELLINGTON, Sunday. Tho closing of nominations has defined tho contests in the various electorates throughout the country, and it is now possible to gain a clearer perspective of general election prospects as a whole and of the likely outcome in the Wellington constituencies in particular. There are 16 candidates for the six Wellington seats, including Hutt and Wellington Suburbs, which is exactly the same number as in 1928, while there are two standing for Otaki and two for Wairarapa. With eight days' campaigning still to go, it appears as if the Coalition has a chance of gaining one seat and possibly two in Wellington. One of the most interesting contests will be in Hutt between Mr. J. Kerr, Coalition, and Mr. W. Nash, Labour. For many years this was a Liberal seat, held by Sir Thomas Wilford, and it was captured by Labour in December, 1929, when a by-election was made necessary through the retirement of Sir Thomas Wilford to take up the position of High Commissioner in London. In 1928 Sir Thomas Wilford gained a majority of 1305 over Mr. Nash in a straight-out fight, but in 1929 Mr. Nash won the seat by a majority of 213 votes. On that occasion he was opposed by two others. He polled 5048 votes and the other two combined 7345, Mr, Kerr, who was also a candidate then, securing 4835. Keen Fight for Mr. Semple.

This year the issue "will be between Mr. Nash and Mr. Kerr. It is certain Mr. Kerr will have the support of the great part of the Reform vote of 2510 cast at the by-election, in which event he must run Mr. Nash very close, and, if polling is heavy, he should have a very good chance of winning the seat back from Labour. In Wellington East there is also a straight-out contest between Mr. T. Forsyth, Coalition, and Mr. R. Semple, Labour. In 1928 Mr. Semple secured 5527' votes, but on that occasion the voting was split by an Independent Reformer, Mr. J. J. Clark, who, with Mr. Forsyth, secured a total of 7209. Mr. Forsyth then stood as a Reformer, and Mr. Semple's majority was 966. As the issue this time is clear-cut between Labour and Coalition it is not unreasonable to suppose that Mr. Forsyth will take the greater part of the votes that previously went to Mr. Clark, so that at the moment it may be said he has a decided chance of winning the seat. Uncertainty must prevail in Wellington North owing to the decision of Sir John Luke to continue in the contest, in spite of the fact that he will not undertake active campaigning. Ho is an Independent Coalitionist, and with him there are three in the field, the others being Mr. G. A. Troup, official Coalition, and Mr. C. H. Chapman, Labour. In a three-cor-nered contest the outcome will be doubtful, although the voting may be made more decisive if the 3000 electors in this constituency who did not bother to cast their votes in 1928 go to the poll this vear.

Mr. Wright In Good Position. Another straight-out contest is being fought in Wellington South between Mr. W. Appleton, Coalition, nnd Mr. 11. McKeen, Labour. Mr. MeKeen was returned by a substantial majority in 1928, when he was opposed by a Reformer and a United Party adherent. Many of the Reform and United votes cast in 1928 are bound to be given for the Coalition this year, but, even so, it appears that Mr. Appleton will have a difficult task to unseat his opponent. There does not seem to be much fear of the Coalition losing Wellington Suburbs, where Mr. 11. A. Wright is opposed by Mr. T. Brindle, Labour, nnd Mr. K. McLennan, Independent. These are the same three candidates -who stood in 1928 and in that year Mr. Wright was returned by a majority of 1885. Mr. P. Fraser, Labour, is strongly entrenched in Wellington Central. Although there are four candidates in this electorate, it would seem at the moment that two. Mr. E. W. Nicolaus. Independent, and Mr. P. F. GrifTin, will give little or no cause for alarm to either of the principal contestants. Mr. Fraser and Mr. R. Darroch, Coalition. Attention will bo centred on these two on polling night, and it appears that Mr. Darroch will h?,ve a hard job to overcome Mr. Fraser's 1928 majority of 3458. The contests in Wairarapa and Otaki are of interest to Wellington, for both electorates border on the city. In both the Coalition's prospects are good. Mr. W. IT. Field, Coalition, has a single opponent in Mr. J. Thorn, Labour, in Otaki, and in Wairarapa Mr. T, W. McDonald, Coalition, is contending with the opposition of Mr. A. D. McLeod, -Independent Reform, whom he defeated by 566 votes in 1928.