CANDIDATES' CHANCES.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXII, Issue 19163, 31 October 1925, Page 16

CANDIDATES' CHANCES.

THE MOST SOUTHERN SEATS. 31R J. WARD DOUBTFUL. OPPONENT'S GOOD SHOWING. AWARUA AND WALLACE. [by telegraph.—own correspondent. ] INVERCARGILL, Friday. Interest in the Southland election campaign is highest in Invercargill and Awarua, where close contests are expected. At the outset, Sir Joseph Ward was regarded as an easy winner in Invercargill. Experienced politicians considered that the contest would be almost without interest, and it was generally believed that agamst a tyro he would not have cause for anxiety. To-day the position is changed, and hardly anyone will give an unqualified opinion as to the outcome. Sir Joseph Ward's opening meeting, although it was crowded, included a large contingent of country people brought in for the gathering, but while the opening and the close saw scenes of enthusiasm, the audience was rather dull during the speech, which was disappointing. Mr. James Hargest later spoke in the Municipal Theatre to an audience, nbt one hundred smaller, and definitely an Invercargill gathering. He spoke. lucidly, forcefully, and enthusiasm was maintained throughout. He has attacked Sir Joseph Ward on finance and has come out of the combat with credit. Unquestionably he has been gaining ground steadily, making many friends, and to-dav even Sir Joseph Ward's friends will confess that the ex-commander of the Otago Begiment will poll heavily. Mr. Hickey is not given a chance, although his candidature will affect the result. In Awarua, Mr. J. R. Hamilton is stronger than he was a year ago. Mr. Perrelle has not consolidated the sea»t as well as was thought, and in the campagin the Reform candidate lias gained accretions of strength. He is expected to poll much better than he did thrpe years ago. In Wallace there are four candidates m spite of the efforts to^ eliminate the Labour candidate and tho in favour of Mr. Edie, the Nationalist. However, it is considered that Mr. Adam Hamilton will win rather comfortably, and it is thought that the Hon. G. J. Anderson will have no difficulty in Mataura. »> Mr. J. Ritchie (Government) is expected to shake Mr. J. Horn (National) for Wakatipu, but it is th<#ight that the Nationalist, who is well-known and popular personally, will go back. Reports from Clutlia suggest that Mr. 1-. jWaite (Government) will win there. Undoubtedly the visit of the Prime Minister has worked an effect on tne campaign, particularly in Awarua.

PROSPECTS IN TABANAKI.

LUCRE GOVERNMENT GAINS.

MR. CORRIGAN MAY VANISH. [BY TELEGRAPH. —OWN CORRESPONDENT. ] NEW PLYMOUTH. Friday. A change in the political colour of the province of Taranaki is expected at next week's general election. The last appeal to the country revealed Taranaki as a Liberal stronghold, three of the four electorates returning Liberal members', one of the seats being retained by a Government man. On this occasion at least one and probably two Government victories are indicated while there is little doubt that the one Government representative will retain his seat. The Egmont electorate, for which Mr. O. J. Hawken (Government) is the sit-, ting member, may be regarded as safe. 'At the last election Mr. Hawken defeated the Liberal candidate in a straight out fight by a majority of 372 votes. On this occasion the issue is a clear one between Mr. Hawken and a Nationalist candidate, and as. the latter is not ar.i exceptionally strong aspirant the electors may be expected to renew the pledge which they have given for some years to the Reform Administration.

The position in Paiea would also appear to be fairly clear. The seat is now held by Mr. J. R. Corrigan (National). He has a straight-out fight with a Government nominee, Mr. H. G. Dickie. At the last election Mr. Corrigan gained the seat by, the small margin of 151 votes in a fight in which the Government vote was split by two candidates. There is no reason to believe that Patea has changed its politics. There will be no vote-splitting nest week, Mr. Dickie is a man whose personality will ensure him a big following. The gain of this seat by the Government may be confidently expected. There is going to be a hard fight in the Stratford electorate between Mr. R. Masters- (National) "and Mr. E. Walter (Government). Much opinion inclines to the belief that the voting will be "fifty, fifty," and judging by the returns .at the last election Mr. Masters has no room to spare, his majority then being 363. Mr. Masters is an energetic member who has a big backing, and he should retain the cent by a narrow majority. The Taranaki contest is open. At the last election Mr. S. G. Smith (National) won the seat from Mr. C. E. Bellringer (Government) by the narrow margin of 134. It was virtually a straight out fight, for Mr. George Tweedie's 34 votes did not make any material difference. Next week Messrs. Smith and Bellringer will try strength again but the issue this time is complicated by the appearance of a third candidate, Mr- W. A. Sheat, the Labour Party's only nominee in the province of Taranaki. In a straisht-out fight between Messrs. Smith and Bellringer Mr. Smith would probably win again, but the Labour candidate is going to be the deciding factor. If Mr. Sheat polls well he will weaken Mr. Smith's total, and Mr. Bellringer will go in. In this case the Taranaki province will send to Parliament three Government supporters and one Nationalist as against three Liberals and one Government representative at the last election.