THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. WEDNESDAY, MAY 14, 1924. THE FALL OF M. POINCARE.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXI, Issue 18708, 14 May 1924, Page 8

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. WEDNESDAY, MAY 14, 1924. THE FALL OF M. POINCARE.

Personalities are always more interesting than political abstractions. It is the fall of M. Poincare, therefore, which gives the French elections their dramatic touch. Though the exact position of parties or groups in the Chamber of Deputies is not yet assured—second ballots will leave it open a little after all returns are completeit is taken absolutely for granted that M. Poincare has been defeated beyond hope of immediate recovery. The situation is not quite straightforward. Since M. Poincare succeeded M. Briand, he has depended for support principally on the parties of the Right and the Centre. Their defeat before the forces of the Left is taken as a signal for his fall. Yet M. Poincare, in purely internal affairs, is in many ways more akin to the Left. However, it was the Bloc National—Right and Centre parties —which maintained him in office. They have lost at the polls. The Left, flushed with victory, are not likely to count the dormant sympathies of.M. Poincare with some of their objectives as righteousness. Given sufficient strength, of which on.' appearances they are assured, they will eject him from office. They have fought the election largely on the contention that the Bloc National, stigmatised as incurably reactionary,: is the enemy. For very consistency • they must oppose anyone supposedly tainted with its vices. Therefore M. Poincare will go, and France will very soon be under the control of a new Prime Minister.

Three names are mentioned as of importance in the circumstances which have developed, Briand, Painleve, and Herriot. M. Briand was Premier immediately before M. Poincare. He belongs definitely to the Left, was permitted to hold office so long as he obeyed |he behests of the. Bloc National, and fell because he was supposed to be too ready to make concessions at the Canness Conference. The only factor against him in the eyes of the Left is that, while in office, he showed a religious tolerance repugnant to their bitter anti-clericalism. M. Painleve is . a distinguished mathematician, a savant with a European reputation. He is a Republican Socialist of pronouncedly anti-clerical views. M. Painleve was successively War Minister and' Prime

Minister during the war, but did not win the unqualified approval of his fellow-countrymen in either office. M. Edouard Herriot, a provincial Mayor, hailing from Lyons, is described in cable messages as being of no very strong character. . He is, however, leader of the Radical Party, and as such cannot be left out of the reckoning. There is a fourth man whose fate in the election has not been given Franklin Bouillon. ' He suffered a political eclipse at the elections of 1919, but was recently returned again to the Chamber. M. Bouillon won notoriety in 1922 by negotiating a commercial treaty with Mustapha Kemal Pasha, thus, it was alleged, undermining British influence in Turkey. He is described as more moderate in his attitude toward clericalism, and toward the Extreme Left than M. Herriot. Consequently, he has been put forward as a factor to be counted. These are the men who come into the foreground as M. Poincare recedes.

No matter. who may be the leader, it" is the attitude France will adopt toward reparations which most interests .the world., Too much should not be hoped from the apparent turn of feeling. The parties of the Left have not attacked the policy of M. Poincare in foreign affairs. They, while less, rigid than he, have consistently supported occupation of the Ruhr, and have insisted that reduction of France's external debt must accompany any concession to Germany. The nature of the election results may modify that view. In addition, some softening of the unyielding stand always maintained by M. Poincare may reasonably be expected. It is - not very safe to anticipate much more. Probably a new Government will be more amenable : to suggestions, than the old, but that is all. The electoral .campaign of the Left parties, after all, was largely on domestic questions. They accused their opponents of definitely reactionary views; they were . downright ;; W their anti-

clerical . attitude, . insisting especially on the continued secularisation of education; they promised a bold ; policy - of social reform, democratic in character. On present figures, they would appear assured of a majority sufficient for all purposes, save for one thing. On the alignment of parties indicated, the Communists seem to be in a position to command a balance of power. This may well affect the situation. It is difficult to deduce what course they will follow. They have increased their representation, though hot to the extent they had hoped, or others had apprehended. There they stand, just sufficient in numbers to complicate the situation which will- be precipated by the certain elimination of M. Poincare.